Trade Compliance for Leadership Navigating a Shifting Global Landscape 2025

Trade flows affected or at risk of non-compliance FIGURE 2 Note: Trade value for the trade lanes is constructed as the sum of bilateral imports of goods of both countries. Source: UNCTAD trade matrix data for 2024 (last updated 1 July 2025) and UNCTAD key statistics report1Not being able to substantiate origin and claim a lower duty rate may lead to r eassessment of customs or anti-dumping duties over the value of goods. Non-compliance with the US UFLP A may r esult in fines up to the value of the goods and r eputational damage, as well as the seizur e of goods or blocking of imports. US authorities have issued fines of up to hundr eds of millions of dollars for non-compliance with sanctions or export contr ols. Non-compliance with the EUDR may r esult in fines of up to 4% of annual EU tur nover , as well as supply chain disruptions due to seizur es or blocked imports and exports. Considering the $9.7 trillion in value represented by the r elevant trade lanes and the incr easing complexity of international trade, a conservative estimate would be that trade flows worth hundr eds of billions are affected or at risk of non-compliance. Costs r elated to infractions would r esult from the wide-ranging consequences of non-compliance, including penalties, supply chain disruptions, delays or reputational damage.Value of r elevant trade lanes at risk$9.7 trillionTrade flows af fected or at risk of non-complianceConsequences of non-compliance include: Trade value in $ billio n Relev ant trade lanes 1,019 EU–US 916 EU–China 891 China–So uth-East Asia 762 US–Me xico 696 US–Canada 636 US–China 514 EU–UK 506 US–South-Eas t Asia 356 EU–Swit zerland 332 EU–So uth-East Asia 331 China–Japan 330 China–K orea 237 US–Japan 225 China–Austr alia 224 EU–Türkiye 208 US–Korea 191 China–Br azil 172 EU–sub -Sahar an Africa 162 US–UK 161 EU–Japan 145 EU–K orea 139 EU–I ndia 132 US–India 115 China–Saud i Arabia 101 EU–Br azil 87 US–Br azil 78 EU–UAE 50 US–sub -Sahar an Africa 45 US–UAE 19 China–A rgentin a 9,780 TotalIntra-EU trade All other inter national trade4.2 20.6The total value of global trade in goods was approximately $24.8 trillion in 2024, of which $4.2 trillion came fr om intra-EU trade. This means that a total of $20.6 trillion comprised all other inter national trade.Value of global trade in $ trillion Relevant trade lanes Other trade9.7 10.9A combination of r elevant trade lanes r epresenting flows of goods with G20 economies top trade partners could be impacted by the changing trade landscape. These lanes amount to a value of over $9.7 trillion facing incr easing trade compliance complexity and risk mitigation.Relevant trade lanes in $ trillion