Executive summary Urgent progress by 2030 is critical – the window of opportunity is closing Australia supplies more than half the global trade in iron ore, the raw ingredient need to make steel – but the industry faces a turning point. As East Asia decarbonizes, demand is predicted to shift from raw ore to low-carbon “green iron.” Iron ore exports earned AU$138 billion in 2024 – making it Australia’s largest export earner (21% share). Converting ore into low-carbon direct reduced iron (DRI) with renewable energy and hydrogen could double this revenue to AU$250 billion a year, while offsetting the likely decline of Australia’s other two biggest exports – coal and gas (14% and 10% share respectively). Iron and steelmaking account for 7-9% of global emissions. Australia, with the world’s largest iron ore reserves plus its significant potential for low-cost renewables and existing export infrastructure, could export enough green iron to abate up to 4% of world emissions – four times its own – with a 40% share of the market. There is no time to lose: Brazil, the US and the Middle East are racing ahead with subsidies and fast-track approvals to claim a larger share of the green metals market. At a workshop on the green iron opportunity, organized by the World Economic Forum’s First Movers Coalition (FMC) in Adelaide in August 2025, over 150 public, private and philanthropic participants highlighted the urgency for the government and industry to collaborate on boosting supply chain readiness and ensuring several “Lighthouse” green iron projects reach financial close by the end of 2027. Transforming existing ores into low-carbon DRI requires major investment and risk-sharing Australia’s hematite ore dominates exports but requires costly beneficiation to suit DR processes. Magnetite ore is easier to convert into green iron, but is currently mined in small quantities. Workshop participants overwhelmingly backed hydrogen- rather than gas-based DRI or carbon capture.More than 20 magnetite concentrate and pelletizing projects are proposed or operating, while innovators are piloting electro-winning. These technologies could allow Australia to export high-purity hot- briquetted iron (HBI) to Asian electric-arc furnaces to produce near-zero emission steel. The price tag ranges from $6-10 billion to build a commercial- scale green iron plant – but private capital will not invest without demonstrated market demand, policy certainty and government finance to share the risk. Government and industry need to collaborate on funding, permitting and demand Industry insiders at the workshop highlighted three key enablers to accelerate progress on Australia’s green iron opportunity: scaled-up funding, streamlined permitting and more robust demand signals. The government is ramping up financial support for its new Net Zero Plan, which targets a 62-70% emissions cut from 2005 levels by 2035. The Future Made in Australia Act allocates AU$22.7 billion for clean industries, including AU$1 billion for a Green Iron Investment Fund and AU$2.7 billion for the Hydrogen HeadStart programme, while an additional AU$5 billion has been earmarked for a Net Zero Fund to support low-emissions technologies. Participants urged the government to commit more concessional finance and incentives to help de-risk infrastructure development and bridge the green premium. The workshop heard how hampered the industry is by onerous, bureaucratic permission procedures, leading to heavy delays in the rollout of essential renewable energy infrastructure, particularly in the iron-ore heartland of the Pilbara. Robust demand signals were highlighted as critical to get the green iron industry on its feet. Government can play an important role with green procurement, but so too can industry by committing to long-term offtake agreements. Downstream companies in construction, automotive, aviation and consumer goods sectors play a key role in aggregating demand for near-zero emissions steel, including through platforms such as the FMC. Australia has a choice – continue fuelling its carbon-intensive iron ore industry and risk it becoming a stranded asset, or embrace the “green iron” opportunity. Unlocking Asia-Pacific as a First Mover: Australia’s Green Iron Opportunity 5

Unlocking Asia-Pacific as a First Mover 2025