Iron is central to Australia’s economy – its principal export commodity is iron ore, consistently contributing over 25% of total energy export earnings.1 In 2024, Australia exported 866 million tonnes, accounting for ~56% of the global trade in iron ore and earning AU$138 billion in export revenues.2 However, as the net-zero targets of major importers from Europe to Japan approach, global demand for green iron and steel is predicted to grow. As a result, the export value for Australia is shifting from raw ore to green iron. If Australia were to become a global leader in green iron, it could double the export revenues it earns to more than AU$250 billion per year.3 More conservatively, in September the Australian Government’s Treasury said that “export revenue from green commodity sectors is projected to reach $178 billion in 2050, provided there is effective coordination, strong ambition and steady technological progress”.4 Green hydrogen offers another low-carbon export opportunity for Australia. Concerns around its safety and storage mean hydrogen is more viable as an “indirect export” – for example, when used domestically to convert iron ore into green iron or to produce low-carbon transport fuels, such as green methanol and ammonia. Thermal and metallurgical coal are the nation’s second-largest export, with ~360 Mt of trade volume generating ~AU$114 billion in 2023. But as with carbon-intensive iron ore, coal exports are increasingly exposed to global decarbonization and expected to face long-term decline. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects global coal exports to fall at least 35% by 2040 and up to 80% by 2050 under current international climate commitments. Green iron and green hydrogen derivatives offer Australia a strategic hedge against the decline of its coal and gas exports, plus a path towards industrial transition. Capturing even one-third of the green iron opportunity would more than replace the nation’s falling thermal coal revenues, according to research by BCG specially commissioned for this workshop.51.1 Green iron could boost export revenues and hedge against declining coal and gas sales The global shift to clean energy represents one of the biggest economic transformations since the Industrial Revolution – and it presents Australia with an enormous economic and jobs opportunity. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, 18 September 2025 Fast facts on Australia’s green iron opportunity BOX 1 –Australia is the world #1 exporter of iron ore, with 56% market share. –Iron ore is Australia’s biggest export earner, generating AU$138 billion in 2024 (21% share of exports), followed by coal (14% share) and natural gas (10% share). –Australia’s huge iron ore reserves (58 Gt, 31% of world reserves), low-cost renewables (82% by 2030 target), established infrastructure and export markets position it to lead the world in green commodity production. –Iron and steel making emit >3.6 billion tonnes of CO2/year – 7-9% of global emissions. Australian green iron exports could slash 4% off global emissions – 4x the country’s own emissions. –By embracing green iron, Australia could double its iron ore export revenues to >AU$ 250 billion/year. –Failure to pivot to green iron could halve Australia’s export revenues, as China (which buys 86% of its ore), South Korea and Japan pursue net zero and align carbon markets. Sources: see endnote.6 Unlocking Asia-Pacific as a First Mover: Australia’s Green Iron Opportunity 8

Unlocking Asia-Pacific as a First Mover 2025