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- Subscribe - Contact Us - Rate Card - Place an Ad Archives Revels Classifieds Real Estate Menu Guide Wedding Weather Subscribe Contact Us July 18, 2005 Case in Point Avian Flu is a stealth pandemic By Chris Honore' Tidings correspondent Between 1918 and 1919 a worldwide pandemic swept the globe. Called the “Spanish Flu,” it killed close to 40 million people. Though the initial symptoms were seemingly mild, it progressed with such rapidity that a person could fall ill in the early evening and be dead before morning. Close to 700,000 Americans died (28 percent of the nation’s population), depressing the average life span in the U.S. by 10 years. It was, by any measure, catastrophic and equivalent to anything experienced in Europe when the Bubonic Plague (the Black Death) of 1347-1351 swept the continent. Consider, also, that the Spanish Flu spread globally at a relatively slow pace, well before air travel was a common form of transportation. Yet, according to John M. Barry, author of “The Great Influenza,” the Spanish Flu killed more people in 24 weeks than AIDS has killed in 24 years.” A new plague Though widely underreported, the world community is once again facing the possibility of exactly such a pandemic. It’s called the Avian Flu, and represents a threat to world stability that is far greater than any rogue state or terrorist agenda. An outbreak of this flu could cause millions of deaths, destabilize governments and economies, and threaten our security. Dr. Julie L. Gerberding, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, has called the possibility of the Avian Flu spreading from Southeast Asia, “a very ominous situation...It is the most important threat we are facing right now.” International health experts have pointed out that of the three conditions necessary for an Avian Flu pandemic to take hold globally, two have already been met. First, a new strain of the virus (H5N1) has emerged and humans have little immunity to it. Second, this new strain can jump between species. The World Health Organization has reported that since 2003 there have been 92 cases of people having caught the avian flu from handling poultry. The only condition that has not been met is that the virus has yet to mutate aggressively so that it can be transmitted from human to human. Or so it was believed. However, in recent months the virus has been found in mammals that have never been infected, including domestic cats and pigs. This spread seems to indicate that the virus is mutating and could emerge as being able to be spread from human to human. In its first detailed assessment, WHO scientists have studied infection clusters in Vietnam (where live bird markets are common) and concluded that it appears likely that the virus is now spreading from one person to another. Presently, effective responses to this strain of flu are all but nonexistent. There are no effective antivirals for treatment, and there is no efficacious vaccine being developed. What to do What can America and the global community do? First, we can begin funding, without reservation, research by the C. D. C., WHO, and international pharmaceuticals into H5N1. With all speed. We must formulate a worldwide strategy as to how to contain this virus, acknowledging that Southeast Asia, where H5N1 is presently found, will likely be ground zero for new and mutating flu strains in the future. Much of the world community was, and in some cases remains, in denial as the AIDS epidemic continues to spread. Many officials, because of the nature of transmission, are still resistant to openly discuss its impact and implications. Africa is a good example. H5N1 must not be brushed aside as being a problem of third world countries. Like the Spanish Flu, if this virulent strain gets a foothold in human populations it will spread globally as fast as airliners can transport infected people, from city to city, country to country, indiscriminately. It will make the pandemic of 1918 pale by comparison. Finally, scientists have recently reported that the mortality rate for the 1918 Spanish flu was three percent. Currently, for those humans who have contracted the Avian flu from birds, the mortality rate is 55 percent. Even if the strain mutates and that number drops to ten percent, the worldwide deaths from the pandemic will be staggering. Case in Point is a new editorial series by Chris Honore and Andrew Scot Bolsinger that will run most Mondays. The column will dig into key topics in the media and try to offer critical background for better understanding of the issues at hand. 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