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Oregon Road Conditions & Cams Email Story to a Friend January 9, 2006 Medford’s enrollment falls off Student numbers drop under a PSU study’s worst-case scenario as demographics shift By PARIS ACHEN Mail Tribune Enrollment in the Medford School District has fallen short of the worst-case scenario set out by a Portland State University demographic study in July. The study forecast an increase of 653 to 2,306 students in the district between 2005 and 2015, with 2,306 being the best scenario and 653 the worst. PSU expected 12,461 to 12,933 students in the 2005-06 school year. In October, enrollment at 12,563 appeared to be in line with that range. But since then, enrollment has slipped by 240 students. Advertisement The high cost of housing, low wages and a loss of confidence in public schools have caused the district’s enrollment to decline each year since 2002, said Superintendent Phil Long. "The economic downturn in 2001 and the decrease in school funding at the state level shook the confidence of some people," Long said. The trend is a migration of families to areas with more affordable housing or a move to private or home schools within Southern Oregon, Long said. Another factor hindering growth in enrollment is the tendency of newcomers to be retirees or childless, he said. The PSU study for which the district spent $14,400 seemed to miss the extent of those trends, though it did acknowledge them, he said. Instead, the study concluded the district would experience climbing enrollment in the next 10 years based on population growth and the spike in new construction of residences in the region. "Even with all the population growth in Medford, we are not seeing new kids," said Keith Brabham, manager of information technology. Irina Sharkova, assistant professor at the PSU Population Research Center, said it is too early to say whether the study’s 10-year predictions will come to be. "Projections are very rarely accurate on a year-by-year basis or month-by-month basis," Sharkova said. But district officials said they are planning for no growth. "You would think that if you build thousands of new homes, you would see a few more kids, but until they show up, we can’t count on them," Brabham said. "We have to assume the numbers are going to go down." The district received the study in August but did not release the results on its Web site until Friday. The study was meant to guide the district in planning the budget, educational programs and facilities. The district will begin crafting its 2006-07 budget in March. "The enrollment is going to have an impact on our budget, and we need to let the public know," Long said. "The study indicates something more is amiss than we are just going to lose a few kids." He said he doesn’t expect enrollment to increase unless more affordable housing is offered to families. Enrollment determines how much revenue Oregon school districts receive each year for education. For every 30 students who leave, the district loses $153,000 from the state. Eroding state funding in the Medford district has resulted in larger class sizes and cuts in counseling and educational programs, including elementary music. Reach reporter Paris Achen at 776-4459 or e-mail Medford�s enrollment falls off ">[email protected] . To see the study To view the Medford School District enrollment forecast study by Portland State University, visit www.medford.k12.or.us . Mail Tribune Home | Local News | Sports | Business | Obituaries | Life | Opinion AP News | Archives | Site Map | Community | Classified Copyright © 1997-2005 Mail Tribune, Inc. All rights reserved. Privacy Policy | Terms & Conditions | Website Feedback www.bingo.com Home Security Systems Trunks, Footlocker Distance Education Computer Security Cheap Website Hosting Discount Hotel Reservations dvd-r Online Pharmacy Myspace Home Equity Loans Windermere Van Vleet Deep Muscle Stimulator Sports Equipment Online Casino Reviews High End Computers Online Casino News Online Bingo Entertainment Guide Online Casino Fundraisers Student Loans Advertisement s