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47 °F Forecast | Road Cams Sunday, October 10, 2004 Today's News | Classifieds | Autos | Homes | Jobs | Tempo | Health | Community | Home Delivery SECTIONS Home Page Local News Sports Business Obituaries Life Opinion - Politics Tempo AP News Weather Classified Archives Site Map SPECIAL SECTIONS Since We Asked Outdoor Journal Menu Guide How To Guide Wellness Connection Readers' Choice Real Estate Showcase Joy Magazine Homelife Magazine Wedding Guide Rogue Valley's Finest EXTRA Newspaper in Education Personals Movie Times TV Times E The People MARKETPLACE Find a Car Find a Home Find a Job Classifieds Place an ad eSouthernOregon Automotive Communities Entertainment Publications Recreation Calendar CUSTOMER SERVICE Frequent Questions Advertising Information Home Delivery Employment Contact Us Media Kit Network Affiliate Oregon Road Conditions & Cams Email Story to a Friend September 17, 2004 President Bush is in a tight race with Democrat John Kerry in Jackson County, according to a Mail Tribune/KTVL News 10 poll. Mail Tribune illustration / Bob Pennell It’s neck-and-neck Poll: Normally conservative Jackson County puts the race for the White House at a virtual dead heat By DAMIAN MANN Mail Tribune The presidential race is a statistical dead heat in Republican-dominated Jackson County, according to a poll commissioned by the Mail Tribune and KTVL News Channel 10. President George Bush gets 49 percent to Sen. John Kerry’s 47 percent in a survey of 393 registered voters in Jackson County. The survey, conducted by Dennett Consulting Group, has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percent. Mark Dennett, president of the firm, said the results show how tight the race is in this county. "I would say it is generally pretty close to a dead heat this far out," he said. Advertisement Republicans in Jackson County outnumber Democrats 42 percent to 34 percent. In other races, the poll shows Democratic Rep. Alan Bates with a 10-point lead over Republican Jim Wright in Senate District 3. Democrat Sue Densmore has a four-point lead over Republican C.W. Smith in the county commissioner race. Republican Congressman Greg Walden has a sizable 28 percent lead over Democratic challenger John McColgan. The main question in the poll was, "If the election was held today, who would you vote for?" Because of the timing of the survey, held Sept. 3-10, just after the Republican Convention, Dennett said Bush could still be enjoying some political bounce from the convention. While the presidential race is tight, the poll shows 57 percent of voters support Measure 36, a proposed constitutional amendment that would allow marriage only between one man and one woman. This measure receives stronger support among Republicans than Democrats. Bryan Platt, chairman of the Jackson County Republican Central Committee, downplayed the significance of the survey results. "With that small of a sampling, I wouldn’t put that much stock in it," he said. Dennett said the sampling is typical of political polls. A Gallup poll released today sampled 767 voters nationwide. Platt expects Bush actually leads Kerry by 10 points in the county, casting doubt for him over the entire poll, particularly in a county where Republicans have a 9,000 voter advantage over Democrats. He also questioned the 59 percent of Independents who would likely vote for Kerry. Telephone bank surveys by Republicans of 13,000 independents show those who favor Bush at 2 to 1, he said. Bill Layton, chairman of the Jackson County Democratic Central Committee, also expressed caution. "I’m pleased with it, if we can put any credence in it," he said. However on some races, there are a number of Democrats showing support for a Republican candidate. "It’s always sad to see some of those people crossing over," he said. Layton said he was skeptical of Republican claims that independents are likely to vote for Bush. C.W. Smith said the survey didn’t jive with two polls his campaign has conducted. "And both polls show a very substantial lead over Sue Densmore," he said. "The poll you gave me was surprising." The Tribune/News 10 poll gave Densmore a 52 percent to 48 percent edge over Smith. However, the Smith campaign’s first poll, also conducted by Dennett’s group, was designed to determine positive or negative attitudes about candidates, not about who the respondent would vote for. Smith, like other candidates, wouldn’t release the poll results, citing the need to maintain a strategic advantage. Densmore said every poll her campaign has run has shown her with higher results than her opponent. She said the current poll reflects the kind of lead she’s had in her own surveys. "I am happy that it looks like the pollings are showing the results of my successes as a businesswoman, my stand on clean air and on limiting sprawl," she said. Bates, comparing his own polls with this one, said, "That’s a little generous for us." He said his own surveys haven’t shown that kind of advantage over his opponent. He also doesn’t put much stock in polls as an indicator of the future. "Things can change quickly," he said. "The only thing in the end that counts is how people vote." Burke Raymond, campaign manager for Wright, said of the poll results, "We’re delighted. We’ve known from day one that one of our goals was to build Jim’s name recognition." He said the poll shows that Wright is now being recognized by more voters. "Our candidate is getting known," he said. A look at the respondents Based on complex scientific calculations, Mark Dennett, president of the Dennett Consulting Group, said he has a 95 percent confidence rate that the Mail Tribune/KTVL poll reflects the opinions of Jackson County voters. Of the 393 people surveyed, 31 percent were from the Ashland-Talent area, 31 percent from Medford, 23 percent from Central Point, with the remainder from the rest of the county. Dennett said his firm was more interested in creating a poll that reflected party affiliation, rather than reflecting the patterns of a particular community. Republicans made up 44 percent of the poll; Democrats, 34 percent; independents, 19 percent; and other party affiliations, 3 percent. According to the Jackson County Elections Center, Republicans make up 42 percent of the registered voters, compared to 34 percent for Democrats. Dennett said the survey is weighted toward women, who make up 57 percent of the respondents. In reviewing the survey results, Dennett said Senate District 3 Republican candidate Jim Wright appeals to older and more well-off voters, while Democratic opponent Alan Bates is supported by younger and less affluent voters. In the presidential race, Sen. John Kerry appears to appeal to households earning less than $35,000 a year, and President Bush has solid support among those earning greater than $100,000. However, in the $75,000 to $100,000 income range, Kerry gets 47 percent of the vote to Bush’s 52 percent. Bush has the best support among voters in the 25 to 54 age group, but in the older age group the support is almost evenly split, according to the poll. In the commissioner race, Democrats and Republicans seem to line up behind the candidate of their party. Another poll, also paid for by the Mail Tribune and KTVL, will be taken in early October. Full results of the current poll will be available on the Mail Tribune Web site today at www.mailtribune.com . Click on Campaign 2004. Reach reporter Damian Mann at 776-4476, or e-mail [email protected] Mail Tribune Home Local News | Sports | Business | Obituaries | Life Opinion - Politics | AP News | Archives | Site Map E Southern Oregon | Classified Copyright © 1997-2004 Mail Tribune. 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