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Expert paints bleak picture for future fire seasons By Allayana Darrow of the Ashland Tidings Sep 21, 2020 06:23 PM A A ASHLAND — After several hundred thousand acres of forests and human settlement land burned across the state, some researchers attribute a tragic summer fire season to a confluence of high fuel levels on the landscape and shifts in climate behavior. Fire history and ecology education have evolved over the past two decades, but for the summer of 2020, the message among academics rests in identifying flaws in current structures and forest conditions in the context of dry fuels and new climate patterns like high wind events, said John Bailey, Professor of Silviculture and Fire Management at Oregon State University. Forest management has a political component to be sure, Bailey said, but analysis of trends, areas of student interest and research topics shed some light on the pure science of devastating fire episodes. Underburning on federal and state land along with resistance from the timber industry to burn because of risk, liability and air quality concerns led to a substantial shift in forest management within the decade, he said. A “clear cut, burn and plant” mantra that lasted for at least two generations of foresters turned toward chemical timber harvest site preparation using herbicides. Still, once the carnage is tallied and victims made whole, an unprecedented season of fires may leave some positive opportunities for forest management transition in its wake. “It’s hard to look at the Holiday Farm fire and talk about the good parts,” Bailey said Sept. 17. “Once the winds died down — and a day like today, the fire that’s out there today is by-and-large doing a lot of ecological good, and it’s not burning a lot of structures today nor is it killing anyone today.” A movement that objected to tree-cutting won a hard-fought battle against abusive logging practices of years’ past, but the pendulum swung too far — Oregon’s hillsides are now cluttered with too many trees, he said. Those who object to smoke might concede that a prescribed burn in the spring is far better than hazardous smoke blankets of recent weeks. In any case, a variety of stakeholder voices hold the key to purposeful, safe and efficient preparation for large fire events, he said. Another perspective indicates forestry study trends toward investigating ecosystems that are not traditionally considered frequent burn zones in fire history but lit up this year, said Rebecca Franklin, Program Director for Forest Resources Technology at Central Oregon Community College. “We expect frequent fire in these dry pine ecosystems but now the interest is in these fires — these large, mega fires that we see more frequently now,” Franklin said of Douglas fir stands. “Mega fires,” a coined term used to describe fires greater than 100,000 acres, are now common occurrences. New fires burn through once deep, dark and wet forest areas more frequently than every few hundred years, thus forest management education now includes the juxtaposition of natural fire frequency along a historical range of variability and future climate change — unknown territory, she noted. Surface fires within Douglas fir stands are natural and ecologically beneficial — preferable to the fires that spread through entire communities, Bailey said. Weather and fuel conditions tip the balance between allowing “good fire” to nourish the landscape and clear out old fuels, and damaging human settlements and lives. Despite firefighters’ effective tactics to stop fire early per society’s influence, fuels saved one day may ignite under extreme weather conditions another day, with a greater negative outcome, he said. “Another irony is that they’ll be the containment lines and escape routes and safety zones for next year’s firefighters,” Bailey said of fire paths. Increased demands on acres of forest land — including diverse timber growth, wildlife habitat, recreation, watershed protection and fire resilience — ensure a silviculturist’s scope of work is constantly evolving. Over the past decade at OSU, Bailey has witnessed heightened interest in fuel management and forest resilience considering density, size, age distribution and burn frequency. “I hope and expect that this record year will put a couple exclamation points on — we need to continue working on this,” Bailey said. “We’re going to have to work on it together.” With a bleak forecast ahead for fuel accumulation and dryness, massive conflagrations, longer and more severe fire seasons and more frequent high wind events, Bailey strongly advocates for engaged collaboration across the industry. “There’s nothing to suggest that this picture is going to get any better in the near term on its own,” he said. “So, it’s just a matter of — are we going to pull together and do this or are we just going to keep being a victim?” Courtesy photo Central Oregon Community College students learn forest and fire management techniques in the field.