Document text
Trump moves could jolt Rogue Valley Tim Duy Tuesday Jan 24, 2017 at 2:30 PM Jan 24, 2017 at 4:31 PM Greg Stiles Mail Tribune @GregMTBusiness President Trump's push to strengthen the dollar and overhaul health care could jolt the Rogue Valley. University of Oregon economist Tim Duy, who will offer a 2017 forecast at Thursday's Southern Oregon Business Conference, said the new administration's policies could hinder Oregon exporters and widen the trade deficit, while reduced government spending could impair health care activity, long a bedrock of Jackson County employment. "The U.S. economy is at a fairly good place right now," Duy said. "We're at a mature stage in the business cycle, close to full employment. That's the place you need to be when you think about sustainable growth over time." Steady 2 percent growth and stable inflation may, however, give way to more volatile activity. "Because of the election, 2017 becomes basically an open question," Duy said. The Trump administration's swift move on significant tax cuts would stimulate the domestic economy to the point where it would grow faster than can be sustained, he said. "The net outcome is that we would have higher interest rates, higher-valued dollar and bigger trade deficits and possibly higher inflation," the economist said. Oregon's economy is highly dependent on international trade. As global trade deals are reworked, Duy suggested, the state could take a disproportionate hit. "Policies that drive up the value of the dollar are going to be negative for exporters, both manufacturers and agriculture," he said. Tax cuts coupled with a stronger dollar cycle the economy back to where it was in the 1980s, when jobs were shifted overseas, he argued. Rural and small population centers will bear the brunt. "The benefits will probably flow to larger urban areas where persons with higher incomes will benefit from tax cuts," Duy said. "Smaller areas without higher incomes will see the impact of a stronger dollar on their economies." Oregon aggressively expanded health care coverage, attracting droves of new patients and caregivers to the state. "Rolling it back would have negative impact," Duy said. "Whatever expansion that has occurred over the past few years would be put into question. Oregon Health & Science University has already said it would cease hiring based on those expectations." Southern Oregon Regional Economic Development Inc. hosts the conference at the Inn at the Commons. Tickets cost $45 for SOREDI members, $65 for nonmembers.  — Reach reporter Greg Stiles at 541-776-4463 or [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/GregMTBusiness, on Facebook at www.facebook.com/greg.stiles.31