Chief Economists Outlook September 2025

Endnotes 1. International Monetary Fund. (2025). World Economic Outlook Update, July 2025: Global Economy: Tenuous Resilience amid Persistent Uncertainty. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2025/07/29/world-economic-outlook- update-july-2025. 2. Financial Times. (2025, 5 August). Trump tracker: US tariffs. https://www.ft.com/content/2c473393-35fb-479d-8bba- 236a1a98087c. 3. Wolf, M. (2025, 22 July). The Ukraine war will shape the world. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/b9d7c64f- c979-4857-b5c5-24e0ac8e8ee9. 4. The Economist. (2025, 13 August). Israel’s war with Iran is over. https://www.economist.com/briefing/2025/06/26/israels- war-with-iran-is-over . 5. Reed, J., Schipani, A., & Jilani, H. (2025, 13 May). How India and Pakistan pulled back from brink of war. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/8908334e-b7dd-4860-8394-571520081e49. 6. Financial Times. (2025, 12 August). Climate Tracker: Keeping watch on extreme events around the world. https://www. ft.com/content/e15b170b-6483-4835-a277-5e9f53cef494. 7. Wolf, M. (2025, 10 June). An ever riskier world economy. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/0356c68b-a0e9- 44fb-b3f7-b84833bb167c. 8. Sandbu, M. (2025, 3 August). The brave new world of trade has arrived. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/ content/040a6816-4fc6-4014-bb26-45c9e814de9b. 9. Financial Times. (2025, 5 August). Trump tracker: US tariffs. https://www.ft.com/content/2c473393-35fb-479d-8bba- 236a1a98087c. 10. McCormick, M. (2025, 13 August). Scott Bessent floats rolling out export tax to more industries. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/1434c913-be45-44b4-8947-4b53fadc9cd7. 11. UN Trade and Development. (2025). Global trade grew $300 billion in the first half of 2025, led by US imports and EU exports. https://unctad.org/news/global-trade-grew-300-billion-first-half-2025-led-us-imports-and-eu-exports. 12. de Soyres, F., Goernemann, N., & Machol, C. (2025, 1 August). Racing against tariffs: Global impacts of frontloading. FEDS Notes. https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/racing-against-tariffs-global-impacts-of- frontloading-20250801.html. 13. The Economist. (2025, 17 July). China’s exporters shrug off the trade war—for now. https://www.economist.com/ china/2025/07/17/chinas-exporters-shrug-off-the-trade-war-for-now . 14. The White House. (2025). Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Continues the Suspension of the Heightened Tariffs on China. https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/08/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-continues-the-suspension- of-the-heightened-tariffs-on-china/. 15. The Economist. (2025, 12 August). How scared should you be of “the China squeeze”? https://www.economist.com/ china/2025/08/12/how-scared-should-you-be-of-the-china-squeeze. 16. Smith, I. (2025, 30 June). US dollar suffers worst start to year since 1973. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/ content/59c07f63-3331-462b-b9e3-d1bcaea69fce. 17. International Monetary Fund. (2025). World Economic Outlook update, July 2025: Global economy: Tenuous resilience amid persistent uncertainty. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2025/07/29/world-economic-outlook-update- july-2025. 18. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. (2025). Macroeconomic productivity gains from artificial intelligence in G7 economies. https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/macroeconomic-productivity-gains-from-artificial- intelligence-in-g7-economies_a5319ab5-en.html. 19. US Bureau of Economic Analysis. (2025). Gross domestic product. https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic- product. 20. The White House. (2025). Further modifying the reciprocal tariff rates. https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential- actions/2025/07/further-modifying-the-reciprocal-tariff-rates/. 21. University of Michigan. (2025). Surveys of consumers. https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/. 22. US Bureau of Economic Analysis. (2025). Gross domestic product. https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic- product. 23. S&P Global. (2025). S&P Global US Flash PMI. https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/ PressRelease/970a92b794eb4408b7b0a3df3073d275; US Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2025). Employment situation summary – 2025 M07 results. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm. 24. US Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2025). Consumer Price Index – 2025 August. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm. 25. US Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2025). Producer Price Index - 2025 August. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm. 26. University of Michigan. (2025). Surveys of consumers. https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/. Chief Economists’ Outlook September 28