Chief Economists Outlook September 2025

27. US Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2025). Employment situation summary – 2025 M07 results. https://www.bls.gov/news. release/empsit.nr0.htm. 28. Editorial board. (2025, 4 July). The age of fiscal excess. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/36273c1b-2c41- 416b-a3cc-545a27706e71. 29. Eurostat. (2025). GDP and employment both up by 0.1% in the euro area. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/web/products- euro-indicators/w/2-14082025-ap. 30. US Bureau of Economic Analysis. (2025). Gross domestic product. https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic- product. 31. Eurostat. (2025). GDP and employment both up by 0.1% in the euro area. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/web/products- euro-indicators/w/2-14082025-ap. 32. European Central Bank. (2025, August). Inflation and consumer prices. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/ macroeconomic_and_sectoral/hicp/html/index.en.html. 33. European Central Bank. (2025, 15 September). Monetary policy decisions. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/ date/2025/html/ecb.mp250911~6afb7a9490.en.html. 34. European Central Bank. (2025, 11 September). Monetary policy press conference. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/ press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/2025/html/ecb.is250911~a13675b834.en.html. 35. The Economist. (2025, 26 June). Germany is embarking on an almighty borrowing binge. https://www.economist.com/ europe/2025/06/26/germany-is-embarking-on-an-almighty-borrowing-binge. 36. Smith, I., Herbert, E., & Abboud, L. (2025, 9 September). France joins Eurozone’s ‘periphery’ as turmoil deepens, say investors. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/23cfb45e-c6d5-4a70-832d-0105d3427859. 37. Leahy, J., & Sandlund, W. (2025, 15 September). China’s economy shows signs of slowdown as US trade war weighs. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/ca963385-2ec8-42b3-b71a-2bbf33cbd14b. 38. Cash, J., Zhang, E., & Yao, K. (2025, 15 July). China’s economy slows as consumers tighten belts, US tariff risks mount. Reuters Media. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-q2-gdp-grows-52-yy-above-market-forecast-2025-07-15/. 39. Leahy, J., & Sandlund, W. (2025, 15 September). China’s economy shows signs of slowdown as US trade war weighs. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/ca963385-2ec8-42b3-b71a-2bbf33cbd14b. 40. Hale, T. (2025, 7 August). China’s exports surge ahead of US tariff truce deadline. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/ content/852ec886-b06a-49bc-aa0b-1a8c23562075. 41. Politi, J., & McMorrow, R. (2025, 11 August). Donald Trump extends trade war truce with China. Financial Times. https:// www.ft.com/content/82126a13-e66b-4f3b-bb6d-74f165a291d0; Murray, C. (2025, 10 September). Mexico to slap 50% tariff on Chinese cars under US pressure. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/677df57b-6c83-48c6-9ec5- 57bd0eb4693f. 42. Reuters. (2025, 10 September). China’s producer deflation eases, helped by crackdown on price wars. https://www. reuters.com/world/china/chinas-producer-deflation-eases-helped-by-crackdown-price-wars-2025-09-10/. 43. Leng, C., & Leahy, J. (2025, 13 August). China subsidises consumer loans as deflation spectre looms. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/2ea44b81-4ba6-46c9-bce9-4c2a53cf5162. 44. Reuters. (2025, 10 September). China’s producer deflation eases, helped by crackdown on price wars. https://www. reuters.com/world/china/chinas-producer-deflation-eases-helped-by-crackdown-price-wars-2025-09-10/. 45. Reuters. (2025, 27 August). Chinese savers are a booming stock market’s next catalyst. Reuters Media. https://www. reuters.com/business/finance/chinese-savers-are-booming-stock-markets-next-catalyst-2025-08-27/; Sandlund, W., & Ko, H. (2025, 30 August). China’s stock market outpaces global peers as local investors pile in. Financial Times. https:// www.ft.com/content/97578194-435b-420e-a410-8f0102700fba. 46. Cabinet Office of Japan. (2025). Quarterly estimates of GDP – Release archive – 2025. https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/ data/sokuhou/files/2025/toukei_2025.html. 47. International Monetary Fund. (2025). Japan Article IV consultation. IMF Staff Country Reports 2025, No. 082. https://doi. org/10.5089/9798229006811.002. 48. Lim, H. J. (2025, 19 August). Japan’s July exports clock steepest plunge in over four years, dropping by a more than expected 2.6%. CNBC Asia-Pacific News. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/20/japan-july-exports-imports-us-shipments- goods-trade-auto-reciprocal-tariffs-trump.html. 49. Asian Development Bank. (2025). Economic forecasts: Asian Development Outlook July 2025. https://www.adb.org/ outlook/editions/july-2025. 50. Yamazaki, M. (2025, August 22). Japan’s core inflation slows in July, stays above BOJ target. Reuters. https://www. reuters.com/markets/asia/japans-core-inflation-slows-july-stays-above-boj-target-2025-08-21/. 51. World Bank. (2025, June). Global economic prospects. https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic- prospects. 52. Ibid. 53. Nugent, C. (2025, 12 June). Javier Milei lowers Argentina’s monthly inflation below 2% for first time since 2020. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/7b687fd9-41ce-41ab-ae73-93b96e11b666; Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos (INDEC). (2025, 10 September). Latest available Short-Term Indicators. https://www.indec.gob.ar/indec/web/ Institucional-Indec-LastestIndicators. Chief Economists’ Outlook September 29