Chief Economists Outlook September 2025

54. World Bank. (2025, June). Global economic prospects. https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic- prospects 55. Miller, C. (2025, 21 May). Trump’s Middle East dealmaking could reshape the global AI race. Financial Times. https://www. ft.com/content/4eaecb90-23f5-47c5-91a2-212497104a06; World Bank. (2025). Global economic prospects. https:// www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects. 56. Al Omran, A., & Cornish, C. (2025, 13 August). Saudi Arabia’s PIF makes $8bn writedown on value of flagship megaprojects. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/a7b15f4e-cf37-4c48-9160-652b3e3abedc. 57. Cornish, C. (2025, 13 August). Can Dubai keep its crown as the Middle East’s finance capital? Financial Times. https:// www.ft.com/content/2383accb-1193-4b98-aaa1-52888ebf5418. 58. World Bank. (2025). Global economic prospects. https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects. 59. The White House. (2025). Further modifying the reciprocal tariff rates. https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential- actions/2025/07/further-modifying-the-reciprocal-tariff-rates/. 60. World Bank. (2025, June). Global economic prospects. https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic- prospects. 61. International Monetary Fund. (2025). World Economic Outlook update, July 2025: Global economy: Tenuous resilience amid persistent uncertainty. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2025/07/29/world-economic-outlook-update- july-2025. 62. Kay, C., Kaushik, K., & Schipani, A. (2025, 12 August). Donald Trump tariffs threaten Narendra Modi’s ‘Make in India’ drive. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/7b22c7d5-5479-47bb-be6c-475fad9a16c5. 63. Kaushik, K., & Kay, C. (2025, 6 August). India’s central bank holds rates amid rising tariff tensions with Donald Trump. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/94f4ba39-fb4e-49c0-9508-1c46d19124fa. 64. Reuters. (2025, 13 August). Instant view: India’s annual retail inflation slows to 1.55% in July. https://www.reuters.com/ markets/asia/instant-view-indias-annual-retail-inflation-slows-155-july-2025-08-12/; Reuters. (2025, 12 September). India’s inflation edges up, but rate-cut bets stay alive. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indias-inflation-edges-up-rate- cut-bets-stay-alive-2025-09-12/. 65. Times of India Business Desk. (2025, 30 August). Fiscal roadmap: Govt on track for 4.4% deficit in FY26, DEA Secretary cites strong growth support. Times of India. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/fiscal-roadmap- govt-on-track-for-4-4-deficit-in-fy26-dea-secretary-cites-strong-growth-support/articleshow/123602872.cms; Schipani, A., Venugopal, V., & Kay, C. (2025, 3 September). India tackles three-tier popcorn tax as Trump tariffs spur reform. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/a0620606-8fdd-46d5-8f6d-704a253ece48. 66. Lex. (2025, 11 August). Uzbekistan makes the case for frontier markets. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/ e5348220-9fbc-4f89-b4e5-856ad6571564; Central Asia-Caucasus Institute. (2025). Layers of Cooperation: The Gradual Institutionalization of Central Asian Cooperation. https://centralasiacaucasusinstitute.substack.com/p/layers-of- cooperation-the-gradual; Asian Development Bank. (2025). Economic Forecasts: Asian Development Outlook July 2025. https://www.adb.org/outlook/editions/july-2025. 67. The White House. (2025). Further modifying the reciprocal tariff rates. https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential- actions/2025/07/further-modifying-the-reciprocal-tariff-rates/; Leahy, J., & McMorrow, R. (2025, 15 August). China cracks down on foreign companies stockpiling rare earths. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/9f9e222d-f351- 4e0f-be9b-aab309562c6c; The Economist. (2025, 26 June). Germany is embarking on an almighty borrowing binge. https://www.economist.com/europe/2025/06/26/germany-is-embarking-on-an-almighty-borrowing-binge; International Monetary Fund. (2025). World Economic Outlook update, July 2025: Global economy: Tenuous resilience amid persistent uncertainty. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2025/07/29/world-economic-outlook-update-july-2025; Keohane, D., & Dempsey, H. (2025, 31 July). Bank of Japan governor says US tariff deal a ‘big step forward’. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/f4ae3922-f708-4a58-82a6-a1745842e072. 68. The Economist. (2025, 11 August). How AI could create the first one-person unicorn. https://www.economist.com/ business/2025/08/11/how-ai-could-create-the-first-one-person-unicorn; UN Trade and Development. (2025, July). Global trade update: Global trade endures policy changes and geoeconomic risks. https://unctad.org/system/files/official- document/ditcinf2025d5_en.pdf; UN News. (2025). UN faces deepening financial crisis, urges members to pay up. https:// news.un.org/en/story/2025/05/1163436. 69. These areas are labour markets and human capital, natural resources, energy and environment, financial markets and monetary policy, trade and global value chains, innovation, technology and data, public finances and fiscal policy, private investment and capital allocation, private consumption and demand, and global economic institutions. 70. Williams, A. (2025, 7 August). Donald Trump’s new tariff regime deepens global trade war. Financial Times. https://www. ft.com/content/9f642686-d9bf-4d16-a2f6-2d2ab8fb43d2; The Budget Lab at Yale. (2025). State of U.S. tariffs: August 7, 2025. https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/state-us-tariffs-august-7-2025; The White House. (2025). Suspending duty- free de minimis treatment for all countries. https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/07/suspending-duty- free-de-minimis-treatment-for-all-countries/; A.P . Moller-Maersk. (2025). Global tariffs impacting supply chains. https:// www.maersk.com/news/articles/2025/03/13/global-tariffs-impacting-supply-chains. 71. Politi, J., & McMorrow, R. (2025, 11 August). Donald Trump extends trade war truce with China. Financial Times. https:// www.ft.com/content/82126a13-e66b-4f3b-bb6d-74f165a291d0; Sevastopulo, D., & Acton, M. (2025, 9 August). US licenses Nvidia to export chips to China after CEO meets Trump. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/e9c52f00- 9bde-4840-801e-ba66c792df9e; Leahy, J., & McMorrow, R. (2025, 15 August). China cracks down on foreign companies stockpiling rare earths. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/9f9e222d-f351-4e0f-be9b-aab309562c6c; Global Chief Economists’ Outlook September 30