Chief Economists Outlook September 2025

Trade Alert. (2025, July). GTA monthly roundup: July 2025. https://globaltradealert.org/blog/GTA-Monthly-Roundup- July-2025. 72. Caldara, D., et al. (2020). The economic effects of trade policy uncertainty. Journal of Monetary Economics, 109. https:// www.matteoiacoviello.com/tpu.htm. 73. Charts in this section combine answers to questions about the level of disruption (“For each of the following areas, how would you rate the current level of disruption?”), the duration of disruption (“For each of the following areas, how long do you expect current disruption to last?”) and the systemic impact (“For each of the following areas, how likely is disruption in this area going to create ripple effects in the global economy?”). Respondents answered on a scale from 0-100 mapped in bins of size 20 to the presented scales. 74. World Trade Organization. (2025). Frontloading, measured responses cushion tariff impact in 2025 but risk high for 2026. https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news25_e/tfore_08aug25_e.htm. 75. Collins, L. (2025, 18 August). Apple’s US investment: A $600bn supply chain resilience plan. SupplyChain. https:// supplychaindigital.com/news/apple-us-investment-600bn-supply-chain-resilience. 76. Steer, G., Schmitt, W., & Smith, I. (2025, 13 May). S&P 500 wipes out 2025 losses as stocks extend rally. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/fcf87e4e-c129-4f9b-b6b7-fc291d7e0c45. 77. Powell, J. H. (2025). Speech by Chair Powell on the economic outlook and framework review. United States Federal Reserve. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20250822a.htm. 78. The Economist. (2025, 13 August). Xi Jinping’s weaponisation of rare-earth elements will ultimately backfire. https://www. economist.com/leaders/2025/08/13/xi-jinpings-weaponisation-of-rare-earth-elements-will-ultimately-backfire. 79. Bianchini, S., Müller, M., & Pelletier, P . (2022). Artificial intelligence in science: An emerging general method of invention. Research Policy, 51(10); Ahuja, A. (2025, 11 June). Can ChatGPT win a Fields Medal? Financial Times. https://www. ft.com/content/564403fa-134c-4385-9e57-4cfc53880508; The Economist. (2025, 1 July). Superstar coders are raking it in. Others, not so much. https://www.economist.com/business/2025/07/01/superstar-coders-are-raking-it-in-others-not- so-much. 80. Coacci, J. (2025, 13 August). AI is already creating a billionaire boom: There are now 498 AI unicorns—and they’re worth $2.7 trillion. Fortune. https://fortune.com/2025/08/13/ai-creating-billionaire-boom-record-pace-now-498-ai-unicorns- worth-2-7-trillion/; The Economist. (2025, 11 August). How AI could create the first one-person unicorn. https://www. economist.com/business/2025/08/11/how-ai-could-create-the-first-one-person-unicorn. 81. Bianchini, S., Müller, M., & Pelletier, P . (2022). Artificial intelligence in science: An emerging general method of invention. Research Policy, 51(10). 82. The Economist. (2025, 28 July). How big tech plans to feed AI’s voracious appetite for power. https://www.economist. com/business/2025/07/28/how-big-tech-plans-to-feed-ais-voracious-appetite-for-power; International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). (2025). Renewable energy technology patents reports. https://inspire.irena.org/Partners/Create- and-costumise-patent-data-charts; Sevastopulo, D., & Acton, M. (2025, 9 August). US licenses Nvidia to export chips to China after CEO meets Trump. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/e9c52f00-9bde-4840-801e-ba66c792df9e. 83. White, E. (2025, 30 June). China’s tighter export controls squeeze wider range of rare earths. Financial Times. https:// www.ft.com/content/13d18620-d3d8-417e-b7fb-40d97fc064bf; Birol, F. (2025, 18 June). Critical minerals constraints are a wake-up call on energy security. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/b9a191aa-27ba-41b6-b2b5- 0f9b8b40ce8d. 84. Munir, Z., et al. (2025, 25 June). Israel-Iran day 12 as it happened: Fragile truce appears to take hold after Trump rebukes Israel and Iran; White House hits out at ‘leaked’ intelligence assessment on Iran strikes. Financial Times. https://www. ft.com/content/f44016f4-25b7-4f3f-9bb2-613e5a6d9e5e; International Energy Agency (IEA). (2025). Oil market report – August 2025. https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-august-2025. 85. Financial Times. (2025, 12 August). Climate tracker: Keeping watch on extreme events around the world. https://www.ft.com/content/e15b170b-6483-4835-a277-5e9f53cef494. 86. Nierenberg, A., & Bautista, J. (2025, 18 August). Spain calls in more soldiers to fight wildfires. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/18/world/europe/spain-wildfires-europe-heat.html; ur-Rehman, Z., & Hafeez, A. (2025, 18 August). A Pakistani village devastated by flooding: ‘Like death visited every home’. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/18/world/asia/pakistan-floods-village.html. 87. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). (2025). The macroeconomic implications of extreme weather events. https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/the-macroeconomic-implications-of-extreme-weather- events_5e24a2d8-en.html. 88. United Nations. (2025). UN80 Initiative. https://www.un.org/un80-initiative/en; World Trade Organization. (2025). Brazil initiates WTO dispute regarding US tariff measures. https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news25_e/ds640rfc_11aug25_e.htm. 89. Svenstrup, M. (2025). The Trump Administration’s IMF policy agenda—Surprisingly mainstream but not without big open questions. Center for Global Development. https://www.cgdev.org/blog/trump-administrations-imf-policy-agenda- surprisingly-mainstream-not-without-big-open-questions. 90. Steer, G., Schmitt, W., & Smith, I. (2025, 13 May). S&P 500 wipes out 2025 losses as stocks extend rally. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/fcf87e4e-c129-4f9b-b6b7-fc291d7e0c45. 91. Foroohar, R. (2025, 27 July). The coming crypto crisis. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/efc848c0-0990- 4623-98ed-1176e97f04cb. Chief Economists’ Outlook September 31