Chief Economists Outlook September 2025

92. UN Trade and Development. (2025). A world of debt 2025. https://unctad.org/publication/world-of-debt; International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2025). Fiscal Monitor: Fiscal policy under uncertainty. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/FM/ Issues/2025/04/23/fiscal-monitor-April-2025. 93. Rogoff, K. (2025, 6 June). US fiscal policy is going off the rails — and nobody seems to want to fix it. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/812a06b0-2819-4a75-abaf-455722cf63e8; Schwartz, F. B. K. (2025). Was der Bundestag im Grundgesetz geändert hat. tagesschau.de. https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/innenpolitik/finanzpaket-grundgesetz- aenderungen-100.html. 94. Collins, L. (2025, 18 August). Apple’s US investment: A $600bn supply chain resilience plan. SupplyChain. https:// supplychaindigital.com/news/apple-us-investment-600bn-supply-chain-resilience; Irwin-Hunt, A. (2025, 26 June). US FDI falls as Trump keeps investors on their toes. fDi Intelligence. https://www.fdiintelligence.com/content/8e1d1671-69f3-4cf4- 99a2-f1b27548b9f9. 95. World Economic Forum. (2025). The Future of Jobs Report 2025. https://www.weforum.org/publications/the-future-of- jobs-report-2025/digest/. 96. World Bank. (2025). Migration overview website. https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/migration/overview; Connor, R. (2025, 5 May). EU pledges €500 million for science amid US funding cuts. DW. https://www.dw.com/en/eu-pledges-500- million-for-science-amid-us-funding-cuts/a-72438165. 97. University of Michigan. (2025). Surveys of consumers. https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/; Time series and authors’ calculations. 98. Hale, T., & Leahy, J. (2025, 15 August). China’s economy loses momentum as trade pressures weigh. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/5472e144-cf09-44bc-a552-d8c18b306215. 99. Moens, B. (2025, 21 July). Can Europe break free of American tech supremacy? Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/5e25c397-61d1-4b48-b5c5-65561a4c9df2. 100. Kinder, T. (2025, 14 August). ‘Absolutely immense’: the companies on the hook for the $3tn AI building boom. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/efe1e350-62c6-4aa0-a833-f6da01265473. 101. Taha, R. (2025, 18 April). French program for US scientists draws flood of applicants. DW. https://www.dw.com/en/french- program-for-us-scientists-draws-flood-of-applicants/a-72279414. 102. European Commission. (2025). Choose Europe: Advance your research career in the EU. https://commission.europa.eu/ topics/research-and-innovation/choose-europe_en. 103. World Bank. (2025, September). World Bank Enterprise Surveys. https://www.enterprisesurveys.org/en/ enterprisesurveys. In Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). (2025, 30 July). Supporting emerging markets and developing economies in developing their local capital markets: Full report. https://www.oecd. org/en/publications/supporting-emerging-markets-and-developing-economies-in-developing-their-local-capital- markets_4456de62-en/full-report.html. 104. UN Trade and Development. (2025). A world of debt 2025. https://unctad.org/publication/world-of-debt. 105. UN Trade and Development. (2025). The state of commodity dependence 2025. https://unctad.org/system/files/official- document/ditccom2025d3_en.pdf. 106. Agarwal, R., & Gaule, P . (2025, March). FD Magazine: The talent equation. International Monetary Fund. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2025/03/the-talent-equation-ruchir-agarwal. 107. World Economic Forum. (2025). The Future of Jobs Report 2025. https://www.weforum.org/publications/the-future-of- jobs-report-2025/digest/. 108. Bloom, D. E. (2020, March). Changing demographics and economic growth – IMF F&D. IMF Finance & Development Magazine. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2020/03/changing-demographics-and-economic-growth- bloom. 109. Jedwab, R., et al. (2023). Human capital accumulation at work: Estimates for the world and implications for development. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 15(3). https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/pdf/doi/10.1257/mac.20210002. as cited in Cunningham, W., Demirag, D., & Weber, M. (2024). Human capital for more jobs: Connecting people to work and creating entrepreneurs. World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099055012062427965. 110. Sauvant, K. P ., Mallampally, P ., & Rahman, K. (2015). Strengthening investment promotion regimes for foreign direct investment in the least developed countries. UN Trade and Development. https://www.un.org/ohrlls/sites/www.un.org. ohrlls/files/strengthen_invest_promotion_regimes_fdi_ldcs.pdf. 111. International Monetary Fund. (2024, 10 April). Fiscal Monitor: April 2024. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/FM/ Issues/2024/04/17/fiscal-monitor-april-2024. 112. Aisen, A., & Veiga, F. J. (2013). How does political instability affect economic growth? European Journal of Political Economy, 29. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2012.11.001. 113. Smith, I., Herbert, E., & Abboud, L. (2025, 9 September). France joins Eurozone’s ‘periphery’ as turmoil deepens, say investors. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/23cfb45e-c6d5-4a70-832d-0105d3427859. 114. Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S., & Robinson, J. A. (2001). The colonial origins of comparative development: An empirical investigation. American Economic Review, 91(5). https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.91.5.1369. 115. Handoyo, S. (2023). Worldwide governance indicators: Cross country data set 2012–2022. Data in Brief, 51. https://doi. org/10.1016/j.dib.2023.109814. Chief Economists’ Outlook September 32