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CHAMBER FORUM Economic future looking brighter Growth rate poised to improve, economist says Comment By Greg Stiles Mail Tribune MailTribune.com By Greg Stiles Mail Tribune Posted Jan. 12, 2015 at 5:08 PM By Greg Stiles Mail Tribune Posted Jan. 12, 2015 at 5:08 PM » Social News The American economy is poised to hit its sixth year of expansion, even if it's been hard to perceive. Tsunamis, fiscal cliffs, Western Europe's financial implosion and budget conflicts in the United States have all hampered economic growth, Portland economist John Mitchell told his Chamber Forum audience Monday at Rogue Valley Country Club.  Since the nation's gross domestic product bottomed out, expectations were the growth rate would pick up, Mitchell said. But it's remained 2 percent since 2010. "(Federal Reserve Chairman) Janet Yellen uses a phrase 'False Dawn.' I think it's more fun to think of Bill Murray in Groundhog Day, you just keep going through the same thing again and again," Mitchell said. That may change going forward, he said. "There is less fiscal drag. In January 2013, every working person got a tax increase, that was the so-called fiscal cliff," Mitchell said. "You had the sequester, a fiscal policy turned into a substantial drag. We don't have that to the same degree now." Growth is not geographically uniform; the characteristics of a place are important, he said. Southern Oregon University, outdoor recreation and a pleasant climate contribute to the region's well-being. "You've got significant retirement income. A little bit under 50 percent of the income in the community comes from transfer payments," Mitchell said. "Mobility is increasing with rising housing prices around the country, and that bodes well for Southern Oregon." Left over from America's Great Recession are declining populations (2.3 million fewer births), start-up declines, damaged credit and less participation in the workforce, he said. Falling long-term interest rates and lower energy prices surprised the world in 2014, he said. "You have to ask yourself, what are the surprises going to be in 2015," Mitchell asked. "I don't know — they're surprises." In a separate interview, Mitchell said falling gas pump prices were analogous to a tax cut, bolstering checking accounts. "You've got more to spend on other stuff," he said. "That's one of the reasons consumer spending has been apparently so buoyant. It's one of the things that has helped support car sales, which seems strange with people reacting to falling gas prices and the mix of sales has moved up to larger vehicles. It's come obviously at a good time.  "One of the things we have to remember, the United States is at once almost the world's largest producer, depending on whose numbers you use, the largest consumer and importer all at the same time. For most of us, it's a benefit. For the nation as a whole, it's a benefit in a sense that we have to give up less of our stuff to get oil that we import for overseas. By the same token, in places like Bismark (N.D.) and Austin (Texas), you are starting to see cutbacks in investments." The increased disposable income can lead to a variety of investment and savings dollars, he said. Mitchell points out oil prices dropped dramatically in 2008 when a barrel of crude plunged nearly $100 from a high point of $140. "The thing that makes this different is the factor of domestic production," he said. At the same time, falling prices are tempting targets for lawmakers eager to generate additional revenue. "That's a possibility a lot of people are looking at," Mitchell said. "You have a system that funds road repairs and that sort of thing via a gas tax that hasn't been increased at the federal level in decades. You have an opportunity to increase the gas tax and it would almost be invisible in a sense the prices are dropping anyway, it would be just less of a drop." He said upward pressure on wages will boost incomes, leading to more travel and tourism dollars. Reach reporter Greg Stiles at 541-776-4463 or [email protected] . Follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/GregMTBusiness , on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/greg.stiles.31 , and read his blog at www.mailtribune.com/Economic Edge .                       By Greg Stiles Mail Tribune MailTribune.com By Greg Stiles Mail Tribune Posted Jan. 12, 2015 at 5:08 PM » Comment or view comments Reader Reaction » STAY INFORMED Email NewsLetter Sign Up Today Sign up for our newsletter and have the top headlines from your community delivered right to your inbox. Southern Oregon Directory Featured Businesses Loading... 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