Document text
http://www.omniture.com --> Sections Home Page Local News AP News AP Entertainment Archives Business Classifieds Event Calendar Forums Life Opinion Obituaries Photo Gallery Readers Photo Gallery Sports Tempo Weather Special Coverage 2006 Britt Festivals --> Shop Our Valley AutoFinder HomeFinder JobFinder Search Our Valley Special Sections Distinctly Northwest Readers' Choice Homelife Magazine Joy Magazine Holiday Guide Oregon Golf Info Oregon Wine Info Other Publications Local Links Ashland News eSouthernOregon Newspapers In Education Personals Moving Here Movie Listings TV Listings Volunteer Customer Service Advertise With Us Media Kit Place Classified Ad Contact Us FAQ's Home Delivery Site Map --> Email Story to a Friend January 4, 2007 Oregon economy loses steam Although state housing market remains strong overall, officials expect slower growth this year By WILLIAM McCALL The Associated Press PORTLAND — Strong job growth in Oregon outpaced much of the nation during the first half of 2006 to boost the state economy, but a downturn in the housing market has weakened growth and raised concerns about a slowdown in 2007. So far, the flatter growth rate does not appear to signal a recession, according to some leading Oregon economists. "Things were slower at the end of the year, and the slowdown is expected to continue," said Art Ayre, labor economist for the Oregon Employment Department. The state economy will be the focus of the fifth annual Oregon economic summit today, organized by business and political leaders, including Sen. Ron Wyden and Gov. Ted Kulongoski, who will give keynote speeches. The daylong conference will feature recommendations for boosting the state's economic competitiveness and creating better jobs. Advertisement Ayre said construction topped the list of industries that showed strong job growth statewide last year. While the housing market has softened nationally, economists noted the market remains strong in areas of Oregon, particularly the Portland metro area. "The housing market has weakened, but it has held up here better than it has nationally, at least from a price standpoint," said John Mitchell, Western regional economist for U.S. Bank in Portland. Still, the lumber industry and other manufacturers are feeling the effects, Mitchell said. "You can see the weakening in lumber and wood products — no great mystery there with housing slowing down," he said. Manufacturing also struggled in some areas, as DaimlerBenz heavy truck subsidiary Freightliner, based in Portland, announced layoffs, saying it anticipated that new federal emission regulations will raise truck prices and reduce orders. Ayre said the financial services industry did well in 2006, along with private education and health services. Leisure and hospitality "came back a little bit," he said. But natural resources and mining — which in Oregon means mainly the timber industry — was among the worst performers for job growth, Ayre said. Tim Duy, a University of Oregon economics professor, said the softening of the housing market has been compared to an investment "bubble" similar to the high-tech bubble that burst in 2000, wiping out the stock value of entire companies and triggering the last recession. But Duy said there are a number of differences between the two markets and the overall employment picture. "The impact of the housing market will be less severe than the tech downturn, so it gives me considerable optimism that what we're seeing is only a slowdown in the rate of growth," Duy said. There were also signals the overall job market was going to be affected when the high-tech sector dragged down the rest of the economy in 2000. "By this time in 2000 we saw things changing," Duy said. "It was apparent that the job market was rapidly deteriorating. But it's different this time. There's none of that. It suggests that fears of a hard landing are overblown at this point." But the economists warned there remains a greater risk for recession when job growth slows. "What I worry about is I don't know when the next recession is," Mitchell said. "I don't think it's in 2007, but it could be." On the Net: Oregon economic summit site: http:www.oregonleadershipsummit.org Would you like to respond to this story? If so Click Here to visit our forums. Advertisement Copyright © 1997-2007 Mail Tribune, Inc. All rights reserved. Privacy Policy | Terms & Conditions | Website Feedback online casinos news Home Security Systems Online Casino Reviews Men's Clothing Fundraisers UK Homeowner Loans Discount Hotel Reservations Send Flowers Casinos Canada Texas Electric Choice Compare Electric rates in Texas Windermere Van Vleet Trunks, Footlocker Online poker at AbsolutePoker.com