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Oregon money picture turns a bit brighter New forecast shows increase of $20 million By JESSICA SMITH Oregon's economic outlook changed little Monday after forecasters released revenue estimates that show a slight improvement over an earlier projection. The state economist's office said Oregon's income will get a $20 million bump in 2001-03, partially offsetting a $100 million revenue decline predicted in March. A higher estimate of lottery revenue is responsible for the increase in the two-year budget period, which begins July 1. The increase represents a tiny change in the $12 billion general fund-lottery budget, and means revenues are flat. Still, "the forecast is great news," said Rep. Rob Patridge, R-Medford. "We've got a little bit more money overall. In light of our current budget crisis, it's great to not be forced to cut programs that help those who can't help themselves." Since March, legislators have expected cuts in programs for seniors and Oregonians with disabilities and higher education, among other things. Rep. Alan Bates, D-Eagle Point, said the revenue bump might mean some cuts won't go as deep as feared. He said he hoped some of the additional funding would be directed to programs for seniors and health care. "It's going to be tight but do-able," Bates said. "I think there's enough there that we can do a reasonable job taking care of seniors and retirees." The numbers released Monday will be used by legislators in coming weeks to put together a final budget before they end the session that began Jan. 8. Now debate begins on spending for universities, community colleges, social programs and Gov. John Kitzhaber's plan to expand efforts to identify newborns facing potential physical and emotional problems. To accomplish his goals, Kitzhaber proposes spending half of what otherwise would be refunded to taxpayers under the state's "kicker" law. The law requires all extra revenue to be refunded to taxpayers when the state's revenue tops forecasts by 2 percent, unless the Legislature decides to do otherwise. State forecasters expect a "flat" economy this year, with "improved, yet slow" growth in 2002. But tax collections in 1999 topped estimates, forcing legislators to decide whether to return the money to taxpayers. The Monday forecast said Oregonians would get $355 million in automatic tax credits this fall. That would mean refunds averaging $190, said forecaster Cora Parker. But Kitzhaber has proposed spending about $180 million of the extra revenue rather than refunding it. That would plug the hole left by the March forecast and add money for universities and some other programs. Kitzhaber also proposed $5.2 billion for state aid to local schools, a figure that represents 43 percent of the total budget. Patridge and Bates said the Monday forecast likely secures Kitzhaber's education plan. "It looks hopeful," Bates said. Reach reporter Jessica Smith at 776-4481, or e-mail [email protected] The Associated Press contributed to this report. On the Net: State economist's report on Web site: www.oea.das.state.or.us Mail Tribune Home | Ottaway Newspapers, Inc. | Dow Jones & Co., Inc. | Privacy | Contact Us Copyright � 2001 Mail Tribune, Inc.