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Y2K: Machines may be OK It's humans we have to worry about By JOHN DARLING ASHLAND -- When the computers flip over to 1/1/00 eight months from now, local officials expect most machines and systems to get an A-minus; human nature, however, might get a C. City officials have joined forces this spring to fix the former and prevent the latter. A Y2K scenario written by Ashland Fire Chief Keith Woodley during a planning session with the city, Ashland Community Hospital, Ashland School District, Southern Oregon University and Jackson County suggests some possibilities, which officials are working hard to prevent: cash hoarding, which could lead to burglaries; unsafe storage of diesel fuel, which could lead to fires; a breakdown in news and information systems, leading to the spread of rumors, to name a few. No one can know which, if any, of these will happen, Woodley said, but officials have decided to coordinate now to stave off trouble later. "Our big concern is human behavior -- people taking extreme steps," said Woodley. "That's largely what causes accidents. "Come Y2K, some resource shortages will occur, but they will not cause death. However, human behavior does have the potential to cause death." The failure of computers to recognize dates for the next century has spawned predictions ranging from a few days of interrupted power and food supplies to more dire consequences. To combat any chaos, Ashland agencies have agreed on the following measures: City: The city has suspended vacation requests for Dec. 20 to Jan. 14 and, if needed, has plans to set up its Emergency Operations Center eight hours a day through that period, with the option of making it round-the-clock, said City Manager Mike Freeman. The city is also installing a new computer system to handle its finances and Project A software is running an analysis of the city's Y2K computer compliance, he said. Electric, water and wastewater systems have already passed the test. "There continues to be fear and confusion around this issue," Freeman wrote in a memo to city employees. "The reality is that even with all the planning the city has done for Y2k, no one knows what will happen in the interconnected systems that provide essential services to our community. My personal belief that at most it will be a bump in the road, not a crater." Fire: The Ashland Fire Department will spend the rest of the year developing response strategies, Woodley said. The department is fully Y2K-compliant in all communications equipment, he noted, and also has backup power generators, handheld radios and ham radios. If phones fail, Woodley said his crews in fire trucks and ambulances will patrol the streets using hand-held radios looking for those who need help. Public works: The extreme worst-case scenario, as determined by R.W. Beck of Seattle, an electrical consultant for the city as well as for Microsoft, is an electrical outage of a week. The city, however, has a hydrogenerator powered by Ashland Creek that can warm shelters at Southern Oregon University or in Ashland schools. The city also has portable backup generators to ensure water can be treated and pumped to reservoirs for uninterrupted use by residents, he said. Public Works Director Paula Brown said water treatment and wastewater treatment can be done manually for a week before needing generators. Police: Ashland police are planning beefed-up eight-hour shifts with the option of expanding to 12-hour shifts in the last weeks of December and stretching into the new year. Police will focus, not on Y2K effects, said police Capt. Mike de Capua, but on human activity in the area of food supply, banking and rumor control. The city plans a public hotline to provide accurate and up-to-date information on water, electric, police and fire questions. Ashland Community Hospital: The facility is about 70 percent Y2K-compliant, with full compliance expected by June 1, said Midge Black, ACH Health Care Review Director. The most likely scenario hospital workers will face, she said, is the usual increase in emergency room admissions because of New Year's Eve activity. Social services: The elderly and infirm might be at risk under a power and phone outage, said Jackson County Emergency Services Director Sandy Eckert, because they depend on regular checkups on their well-being by phone or car visit. Social services officials are looking for new ways to respond if that happens, she said. "Most of what we plan for is because human behavior and anxiety make problems unfold," said Eckert. "It's not just in the area of hoarding and causing depletion of supply. If at the stroke of midnight next New Year's Eve, everyone picks up their phone to see if it works, that can bring the system down. Same if everyone calls 911 to see if it's working." Officials noted one positive twist: Starting at 5 a.m. on Dec. 31, Ashland will get to watch the rest of the world cope with Y2K through 17 time zones before Jan. 1, 2000, arrives here. What could go wrong on Y2K day P roblems that could occur during the Christmas-New Year's holidays at the turn of the century, according to a scenario drawn up by Ashland Fire Chief Keith Woodley: Fearing bank failure, people might store cash at home, inviting burglaries. Holiday shoppers might want to hang onto their money, causing a drop in commerce and increased unemployment. Staff vacations might be canceled as personnel are needed for these eventualities, whether they happen or not. It might be hard to contact employees if phone or satellite systems are affected. News and information about emergency response might be interrupted if electric, cable or satellite systems are impaired. If it snows, the city must have sufficient fuel stockpiles to clear streets. If noncompliant building monitoring systems fail, they might report false alarms for fire, burglary and other warning systems, overloading emergency services. Ashland's electrical system is Y2K-compliant but the national grid isn't 100 percent compliant, so there might be "rolling brownouts" through wholesale power producers affecting Ashland's grid. Local residents might increase use of wood, kerosene, propane, increasing risk of fires and carbon monoxide poisoning. Shelters might be needed if home heating goes out. Fearing fuel shortages, people might store gasoline at home, a fire risk. If hoarding tightens supply, truckers on I-5 might not be able to refuel and will sit waiting for gas. Some may be carrying hazardous materials and residents may become alarmed. Mail Tribune Copyright � The Mail Tribune 1999, Medford, Oregon USA