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0 of 3 Premium Clicks used this month SUBSCRIBE Print + Online Subscriber Activation | Register x Forgot Password | Need an Account? e-edition | subscribe | newsletter | deals Home News Latest Stories Esquivel named vice-chairman of veterans committee Man on parole for robbery arrested after crashing stolen truck Churches start new year with messages of hope Car crashes into Medford yard New Year's Eve 10 things to know for Friday Crime, Courts and Emergency Services Man on parole for robbery arrested after crashing stolen truck Car crashes into Medford yard New Year's Eve Emergency services Emergency services Community blog: Mentoring=Crime Prevention Politics and Elections Councilman stirs online dust-up with anti-marijuana post State certifies recount showing failure of GMO-labeling measure Time running out for O&C funds GMO vote recount still shows little change Education Traveling artist sets the stage for Ruch School amphitheater Ruch school class focuses on the natural environment Bethel Church helps families at McLoughlin Middle School Logos may offer students 'fifth year' at RCC or SOU St. Mary's plays host to youth robotics tournament Environment Monument expansion expected to increase tourism, protect resources Biologist resigns over LNG reporting failure Bird flu discovered in Winston backyard flock Jackson County holds back on enforcing GMO ban for now No fish, no funding for problem dams State News Oregon fans get married Rose Bowl parking lot Earthquake off coast shakes Humboldt County Stranded sea turtle recovers at Oregon aquarium Oregon minimum wage rises to $9.25 Storm brings snow, cold to West Nation - World Obama makes Maduro’s ‘insolent Yankees’ line harder to sell Obituaries Jeannine Gardiner Dr. Kenneth Emerson Janet E. Leonard Lyle Roberts Death Notices Weather Photo Galleries Since You Asked Videos Web Cams Mail Tribune 100 Shareable In memoriam: 2014’s notable deaths Looking back: Do you remember 2014’s biggest stories? Sports Latest Stories And then there were two Challengers’ late charge falls short Buckeyes stun Alabama in Sugar Bowl Soft label fuels UO fire Rose, Bulls down Nuggets Varsity 541 College Sports And then there were two Buckeyes stun Alabama in Sugar Bowl Soft label fuels UO fire One to go Arizona at top of Pac-12 Pro Sports Rose, Bulls down Nuggets Capitals top Blackhawks 3-2 in Winter Classic LeBron to miss two weeks with injuries Ravens head of security charged with sex offense Lions’ Suh refuses to talk about incident Community Sports Business Latest Stories Ride & Drive: 2015 Honda Crosstour Positive Steps Rising prices bear fruit for local pear growers Dear Monty: Best start for 1st-time homebuyers Milken economist headlines Southern Oregon Business Conference Real Estate News Dear Monty: Best start for 1st-time homebuyers Rental owners group reports 2.48 percent vacancy rate People In Business Transportation Falling gas prices help spur travel at Medford airport Agriculture Rising prices bear fruit for local pear growers K-BAR ignites agriculture boom beneath Table Rocks Opinion Latest Granlund cartoon: Palestine statehood bid Michelle Teheux: Lucky to be alive (and white?) Our View: Meeting in the middle keeps a mill open Michael Gerson: Clear choice, or clear trauma? Letters to the Editor. Jan. 2 Editorials Our View: Meeting in the middle keeps a mill open Our View: Help clear the air for the new year Our View: Caves expansion worth the wait Other Views: Oregon incomes still lag behind Our View: Council is barking up the right tree Letters to the Editor Letters to the Editor. Jan. 2 Letters to the Editor, Jan. 1 Letters to the Editor, Dec. 31 Letters to the Editor, Dec. 30 Letters to the Editor, Dec. 29 Guest Opinions Guest Opinion: Loved one chose death with dignity in Oregon Guest Opinion: Forest thinning means water for the future Guest Opinion: Suit threatens family farms and democratic vote Guest Opinion: SOU pool decision short-sighted Guest Opinion: It's time for biologists to let OR-7 go dark Lifestyle Latest stories Community blog: Get the New Year off to a Great Start Hobart Bluff offers top-notch views Fishing report: Jan. 2, 2015 'Wild' about hiking Churches start new year with messages of hope Food Community blog: Ring in new flavors with year's last appetizers Food for Thought: Tips for cooking when you have food allergies Food for Thought: Wintertime wining and dining Kitchen Call: The comfort of creamy soups Community blog: Baking contest finalists combine cookies, candies Home and Garden Dear Monty: Best start for 1st-time homebuyers Dear Monty: Can a rookie real estate agent be a good choice? Bathtub or shower: What’s best for you? Home Help: Home safety tips for a safe and happy winter season How NOT to install drywall Health Community blog: We Don't Have To Conspire Against Good Health HealthStyle: New year, new you Health Watch: Build up your glutes in the off-season Dr. Jeff Hersh: What's a monoclonal antibody? Dr. Murray Feingold: Have a happy and stress-free holiday Hiking Biking Faith Churches start new year with messages of hope (No heading) Churches, synagogs host seasonal events Bethel Church helps families at McLoughlin Middle School Milestones and Achievements Little Yaretzi is county's first baby of 2015 Local landowners see no public good in proposed pipeline Pear Blossom queen has open heart surgery Hundreds enjoy Christmas dinner, gifts at St. Vincent de Paul SinceYou Asked: SBA would work with Mt. Ashland Ski Area about loan Columnist for a Day Rogue Healthy Aging Tempo Latest stories Jefferson State Choral Coalition presents 'Reason for the Season' New Schneider Museum exhibits highlight First Friday Camelot's 'Fiddler' is a charmer Top 10 CDs of 2014 Ring in 2015 at a New Year's celebration near you Theater Camelot's 'Fiddler' is a charmer ACT presents reading of 'The Quality of Life' Meet the real Jacob Marley This Nutcracker ballet will have a superhero twist Plumbing the depths of meaning Music Jefferson State Choral Coalition presents 'Reason for the Season' The Farr Side: Top 10 album count-up for 2014 Top 10 CDs of 2014 A tribute to Joe Cocker Ring in 2015 at a New Year's celebration near you Community Events New Schneider Museum exhibits highlight First Friday Celebrate winter solstice with the Bad Film Society Tomaseen Foley's "A Celtic Christmas" returns to the Craterian Theater Stefan Baumann and Eugene Bennett highlight Third Fridays Dancing People Company celebrates the solstice Dining Jackson Creek Pizza Co. is a good downtown haunt Dobra Tea menu offers hundreds of brews Food for Thought: Wintertime wining and dining Coffee shops roll out holiday-inspired drinks Over Easy serves 'pop-up' brunch Sundays Tempo Videos Classifieds Jobs Autos Real Estate FEATURED » Obituaries Blogs TV Listings Movie Listings Oregon Outdoors Oregon Healthy Living Magazines & Special Sections NEWS NOW Man on parole for robbery arrested after crashing stolen truck ... Car crashes into Medford yard New Year's Eve ... Expanded library hours begin today ... Man on parole for robbery arrested after crashing stolen truck ... Car crashes into Medford yard New Year's Eve ... Expanded library hours begin today ... THE ECONOMY Positive Steps Rogue Valley rebounding, though more slowly than rest of the state Comment By Greg Stiles Mail Tribune MailTribune.com By Greg Stiles Mail Tribune Posted Jan. 2, 2015 @ 12:01 am By Greg Stiles Mail Tribune Posted Jan. 2, 2015 @ 12:01 am » Social News The Rogue Valley economy has a ways to go before it could be called robust. Even if 2014 was not an out-and-out year of prosperity, it did see significant signs and trends indicating the region is on the right path. "We still have some room to go before we see an economy that most people would find to be normal," said Tim Duy, an economist at the University of Oregon. "Certainly 2014 continued the trend from 2013, of making ground lost in the recession." Bill Thorndike has observed the local economy from various perspectives over the decades — from his manufacturing business (Medford Fabrication), higher education and health care boards, economic development agencies and national park advocacy, as a port commissioner and as a board member of the Portland Branch of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank. "It's been a transition year here in Southern Oregon," Thorndike said. "You see Lithia Motors putting up new dealerships. In health care, you see coordinated care organizations have increased their capacity to provide more primary care. The county needed two more floors for its Health and Human Services building." Picking through piles of data, Guy Tauer, a regional economist with the Oregon Employment Department, said Jackson County hasn't kept stride with gains made in the Portland area, but is trending with the rest of the state. Of the 9,180 jobs Jackson County lost during the Great Recession, about half have returned, Tauer said. While the state as a whole saw 0.7 percent wage gains, adjusted for inflation, Jackson County saw a more modest 0.3 percent increase. Should lower fuel prices linger into the 2015 tourism season, he said, the Rogue Valley stands to see a flow of more dollars. "There will be more money in consumer pockets and that benefits tourism, retail, leisure and hospitality. All of Southern Oregon stands to benefit from lower gas prices," Tauer said. The Oregon Office of Economic Analysis predicts wood products employment to trend up 3 percent in 2015 and professional services such as architects, accountants and software developers to match this year's 4.2 percent expansion. Retail trade gains are likely to diminish, from 3.2 percent growth to 2.5 percent. At the same time, Thorndike is finding more competition for his family business as firms far and wide bid for jobs. "Volume was off this year, but the products we produced we did a little better on," Thorndike said. Sales of the Medford Log Fork, developed 60 years ago, exceeded expectations, he said. "We're bidding on some national projects, where people are still bidding 20 percent less," Thorndike said. "I can't blame the owners, if they can get the quality and deliver at that price, but you can't do that long term." One long-term trend ended in 2014, or at least took a lengthy break. The Rogue Valley is hundreds of miles from major metropolitan areas of Sacramento, the Bay Area and Portland. Yet those distances seemed to shrink when the interstate highway system and expanded commercial aviation routes improved connections. But 40 years of rising fuel prices, pushing up freight and cargo costs, created an isolation of its own for manufacturers and retailers. Trucking is a major component to the local economy, far outstripping rail and air freight activity. Mike Card, president of Combined Transport and former chairman of the American Trucking Associations board, said the 3.5 percent gross domestic product gain of recent quarters is expected to carry into 2015. That's good news for his industry, where all the indices are at record highs. "Most of the truckers I know are very bullish on the economy for the next year, with oil prices coming down," Card said. "If we could get some more truck drivers we'd really be growing, but we have a shortage of truck drivers and that's causing rates to go up." With shipping demand up, the economic ripple hits truck sales, fuel stop operations, parts suppliers and other allied entities, he said. "Payrolls grow with expanding maintenance needs. You are hiring mechanics, and there are logistics people, dispatchers and accountants," he said. There are job openings downtown as well. Pacific Retirement Services' bold move to the new One West Main building underscores CEO Brian McLemore's confidence in downtown Medford and its core possibilities. PRS' headquarters building, shared with Rogue Disposal & Recycling and Procare Software, gave local construction a boost in 2014 and will likely spur additional activity in 2015 when ground-floor retail begins to fill. "I'm an optimist," McLemore said. "I think things are getting better, although some sectors are coming out quicker than others. We're still looking for IT people." PRS operates or manages senior care facilities in the West, Texas and upper Midwest. "We thought '14 was going to be a great year for us and it was," McLemore said. "It was advantageous for our business model with retirement waves still hitting and lending loosening up. We saw '14 as our window for several projects. We were able to refinance $220 million in 10 weeks because interest rates were staying low. They'll start inching up in '15, but I don't see them rising dramatically." Along with retirees finding their way to the valley, oiling the health care industry's machinery, McLemore said the wine industry and U.S. Cellular sports park complex continue to entice people. "I don't see some big company relocating to the Rogue Valley in '15," he said. "There are some good things happening with big strides coming, but first we've got to take the little ones." Few businesses have prospered to the extent of Lithia Motors, the nation's No. 8 auto retailer whose headquarters building punctuates the downtown Medford skyline. While Lithia's presence on The Commons highlighted local building earlier this decade, the addition of two new stores along Crater Lake Highway were a major contributor this year. "Our businesses in the valley did well in '14 and it allowed us to expand to the Auto Mall," said Mark DeBoer, who oversees Lithia's real estate and construction. "I think Medford is still on the lower side of its growth curve and think it has huge opportunities. We're still trying to get people to invest in downtown, but there is still that little bit of hesitation." His concern is that Medford hasn't been able to match similar-size cities such as Bend when it comes to long-term economic growth. "Medford historically hasn't been able to sustain major development," DeBoer said. "Just look at Bend, where the Old Mill District gets a lot of traction, but it's taken time." He takes exception to the notion Medford has traffic and parking issues. "If you look downtown, there are signs for how you can get out to Ashland and Jacksonville," DeBoer said. "We need to make downtown a pedestrian-oriented place like Ashland, Bend, Helena (Mont.) or Missoula (Mont.)." Residential housing sales gained ground during 2014. New home construction has picked up sporadically, with subdivisions planned prior to the real estate bubble now coming to fruition. "The housing market still has not rebounded to what we saw not just during the housing boom, but prior to the housing boom," Duy said. "It's not clear we've rebounded to the point of seeing some of those migration trends return that were so important to driving consistent sustained growth over a long period of time." While not all new construction runs through its system, Southern Oregon Multiple Listing Service showed the price per square foot rose to nearly $158 in 2014 from $133 a year earlier. Louis and Charles Mahar enter 2015 on an even keel, initiating Stonegate Estates Phase 2A, east of North Phoenix Road and south of Larsen Creek. They plan to build out 35 lots on the 100-home project over the next four years. "In the last year and a half it's picked up," Louis Mahar said. "It's not exploding, but we've got a nice pace going at this time." The critical thing, Mahar said, is matching the right house with the right price point. "When we did Eastgate Estates, we built 1,600-1,700-square-foot homes for $275,000 to $310,000," he said. "Our plan here is to build 1,600 square feet and keep it under $300,000. I don't see interest rates going up dramatically. They might go up a little, but I can't see why they'd want them to go up too much and kill any kind of recovery we have going." Even with mortgage interest rates well below historical norms and employment substantially better than it was six years ago, the number of homes sold a year ago is down 30 percent from 2004. New construction in 2014 tracked fairly evenly with 2013, said Roy Wright, a local appraiser and longtime observer of the Jackson County real estate market. "We're seeing a lack of first-time home buyers," Wright said. "College graduates, as a group, are so tied down with student loans they can't get into a home. "I don't think that will change anytime soon." As a result, he said, much new construction is rental property. One of the surprises Duy saw in 2014 data was the resilience of manufacturing. "It's what separates the Rogue Valley from the rest of state where we haven't seen that kind of rebound from the recession," the UO economist said. "It's only 1,000 jobs, but still it's a good sign at least that sector has been able to rebound so strongly." Looking forward to 2015, Duy said, "I anticipate steady pace of improvement like we've seen in 2014." Reach reporter Greg Stiles at 541-776-4463 or [email protected] . Follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/GregMTBusiness , on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/greg.stiles.31 , and read his blog at www.mailtribune.com/Economic Edge .     By Greg Stiles Mail Tribune MailTribune.com By Greg Stiles Mail Tribune Posted Jan. 2, 2015 @ 12:01 am » Comment or view comments Reader Reaction » STAY INFORMED Email NewsLetter Sign Up Today Sign up for our newsletter and have the top headlines from your community delivered right to your inbox. calendar Connect with MailTribune.com Facebook Twitter RSS Back to top Reader Services Reader Services Home Subscriptions Subscriber controls Contact us Submissions Photos Events Letters to the editor Corrections Announcements Obituaries Story ideas Since you asked Alerts Email Alerts RSS Feeds Text Alerts Advertise Media Kit Home Products and services Ad rates Advertising contacts Mail Tribune Daily Tidings The Nickel Shop Our Valley Blogs Stay Informed Email newsletter Sign Up Today Sign up for our newsletter and have the top headlines from your community delivered right to your inbox. 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