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Business Q&A -- Pat O'Connor Shrinking labor force Curry County's unemployment rate "It seems high because we have become accustomed to the very low rates we have seen in recent years." Q: The October figures show Curry County with a 4.7 unemployment rate. Is that indicative of good times on the South Coast or something else? An unemployment rate of 4.7 percent certainly puts Curry among the counties with one of the lowest rates in Oregon. Other unemployment rates around the state range from a low of 2.9 percent in Benton County to a high of 9.5 percent in Harney County. Curry County's October unemployment rate is only 0.1 percentage point higher than last October's rate of 4.6 percent, however, upon closer inspection we see that the civilian labor force has decreased by 220 since October of 2000 and nonfarm payroll employment has been reduced by 150 jobs since last October. In other words, approximately the same percentage of people are out of work, but the size of the work force and the economy has contracted. Q: What are the key differences in filling jobs in good times and bad? The biggest thing we would expect is that it is more difficult to fill any positions, including hard-to-fill positions during prosperous economic times. With a labor market as tight as Oregon and the nation has seen in the past seven or eight years, it is often difficult for employers to find qualified persons to fill positions. In some areas of the country, employers would argue they have not been able to find qualified persons. On the other hand, when jobs become more scarce, employees cannot be as picky about whom they want to work for and where they want to work. As the economy worsens, employers do not need to make as many concessions (wages, benefits, vacation time, etc.) to attract and retain employees as they would in a more prosperous economic time. Another difference between filling jobs in good vs. bad economic times is the rate of employee turnover. When unemployment rates are low, employers tend to have difficulties maintaining a low turnover rate. When the unemployment rate climbs, workers tend to stay in their current positions and are fearful of being the first one laid off if they are the most recent hire. One thing to keep in mind is that Oregon's current unemployment rate of 6.5 percent is not that high compared to other points in our history. It seems high because we have become accustomed to the very low rates we have seen in recent years. During the recession in the early 1980s Oregon saw unemployment rates of more than 11 percent. Historically, most economists considered full employment to be at an unemployment rate around 5 percent. If we keep this in mind, 6.5 percent unemployment does not seem that bad. Unfortunately, this is not very comforting to those who are unemployed. Q: You've recently completed a survey of hard-to-fill jobs around the state. What are the primary reasons that jobs - even well-paid positions - go unfilled? There are several reasons why certain jobs are hard to fill. As we might expect, jobs paying less than other jobs in the same occupation are inherently harder to fill. Jobs in occupations that pay at or slightly above minimum wage are also more difficult to fill. Higher-paying positions may be hard to fill as well because applicants may lack the training or licensure required for a given occupation, we see examples of this occur often in the medical field. Jobs that require workers to endure hardships such as traveling away from home also makes positions more difficult to fill; this is a primary reason long-haul trucking is an occupation that is tough to fill. Q: Do you have suggestions that might fill those jobs? A remedy for low-wage, hard-to-fill jobs would be to pay a higher wage. However, it is often not feasible for an employer to pay higher wages and remain profitable. Occupations that require a license such as the nursing profession may require additional training or incentive programs from the prospective employer. Using nursing as an example, we see that some hospitals have offered to pay student tuition for an individual to attend nursing school in exchange for a guarantee of one year of employment after the individual receives their license. One difficulty with occupations requiring school and/or training programs is the lag time between employers realizing the need for more employees and the time it takes prospective trainees to complete these programs and become licensed. Another difficulty with filling occupations requiring training programs is that many rural communities in Oregon do not have these programs offered at schools in their area. A remedy for this problem would involve additional funding for programs in rural areas; this seems unlikely with government budgets shrinking along with the economy. People who are unemployed or wanting to make a career change can benefit from visiting their local office of the Oregon Employment Department. Persons can find out what jobs local employers are currently filling. In addition, the Employment Department makes 10-year occupational projections where people can find out which occupations will be growing and which will be declining in the future. To suggest a subject for this column, please contact business reporter Greg Stiles at 776-4463 or e-mail [email protected] Mail Tribune Home | Ottaway Newspapers, Inc. | Dow Jones & Co., Inc. | Privacy | Contact Us Copyright � 2001 Mail Tribune, Inc.