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Seeding has done little to plant fans in the stands By TIM TROWER Mail Tribune When they implemented seeding for the Class 4A girls and boys basketball tournaments last year, Oregon School Activities Association officials expected interest to bloom. Instead, barren seats sprouted at an alarming rate, leaving perplexed observers scratching their heads and looking expectantly to this year. Is seeding the root of the problem, or was it merely coincidence that attendance dropped the same year the format changed? "It makes us blink a little and wonder what's going on," admits Robyn Sharp, assistant executive director of the OSAA and staff liaison to the girls seeding committee. The girls tournament began Tuesday at the University of Portland Chiles Center. The boys event starts next Tuesday at Memorial Coliseum in Portland. Turnstiles will be a hot topic the next two weeks. While attendance figures routinely fluctuate slightly from year to year and era to era, the downturn from 2000 to 2001 was as disturbing to tournament overseers as crop failure might be to a farmer. The girls tourney had 22,461 fans last year, 5,314 fewer than the 27,775 the year before. It was the lowest total since 1989. The decline for the boys was far more dramatic as attendance dipped lower than at any time in 52 years. The boys drew 42,519 last year, down from 54,071 in 2000. Not since 1949, when Roosevelt defeated Marshfield for the title to cap a tournament that drew an estimated 40,000, have so few spectators witnessed the proceedings. No one knows why the drought occurred, but there are theories. The rationale for seeding is to get the best teams squaring off at the end of the tournament, not in the opening round, as can happen in a random draw. But to do so means the strongest teams must play the weakest teams at the outset, increasing the prospects for fan-repellent blowouts. If seeding isn't to blame, then perhaps conflicting events are. The Trail Blazers, for instance, had two home dates during each of the girls and boys tournaments last year. The OSAA and others, like South Medford boys coach Dennis Murphy - who had a heavy hand in planting the seeding seed - hope it was an aberration and not a sign of things to come. "That's why we're anxious to see what happens this year," says Sharp. "We can't figure out why seeding would cause a big drop-off unless its because people thought there'd be blowouts. Logically, you wouldn't think seeding would be the reason. When you're talking about the best 16 teams in the state, every game, it seems, should be a good one." In fact, scores from last year's girls and boys first rounds compared to the year before suggest there was little difference. For the girls, seeded games resulted in an average scoring margin of 18.63 points for the eight games, up 3.25 per game from the previous year. There were two big blowouts - one each night involving the No. 1 and 2 seeds - meaning the other three games per night were not hugely disparate. For the boys, the average margin of victory last year with seeded games was 15.63 points per game, compared to 14.75 the year before. Again, Nos. 1 and 2 won in blowouts. The only upsets with first-round seeds happened when the No. 9 teams beat the No. 8 teams in both girls and boys. Another similarity: The two No. 4 vs. No. 13 games were close, decided by a total of three points. Because seeding prevents two marquee teams from an early meeting, it also prevents one of those teams from dropping to consolation play and ambushing an inferior foe, says coach David Heard of the No. 2-seeded Crater girls. "If you lose the first game," he says, "you have a better chance of winning the second." Seeding was adopted only as a countermeasure to another potential format change a couple of years ago. The OSAA executive board was considering reducing the field to eight boys and girls teams and bringing them to the same site. Murphy spearheaded a move by the coaches to present a counterproposal. Originally, coaches wanted to expand the fields to 48 teams and create more home playoff games, thereby increasing revenue. While the OSAA balked at that idea, it did agree to OK seeding as a way of instilling interest. Murphy served as the coaches' mouthpiece before the board. The seeding experiment is for two years. It will be evaluated after this year's tourneys. Attendance notwithstanding, the seeding seems to work. "I think everybody feels good about it and likes it," says Murphy. Five people are on each of the girls and boys seeding committees. They are former coaches and avid fans who watch hundreds of games each year - and would do so even if they weren't volunteering on the seeding committees. Each is given conferences to specialize in, then they come together the Sunday before the tournament and rank the teams, Nos. 1 through 16. In last year's tournaments, they correctly seeded seven of the eight semifinalists - the exception was the Grants Pass boys, who made it to the semis, then lost to eventual champion Churchill by two points in overtime. "The committees did an extremely accurate job," says Sharp. Whether they'll be around to do it again remains to be seen. Reach sports editor Tim Trower at 776-4479, or e-mail [email protected] Mail Tribune Home | Ottaway Newspapers, Inc. | Dow Jones & Co., Inc. | Privacy | Contact Us Copyright � 2001 Mail Tribune, Inc.