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Why the beavers will win By Tim Trower Don, you ignorant Duck. I applaud your inventiveness, conjuring ways the Ducks might beat the Beavers. But let�s see this for the illusion that it really is. If David Copperfield can turn a scarf into an elephant, if math wizards can write formulas that prove 1+1=0, then I suppose Oregon fans can find data supporting a Ducks victory. I don�t buy it. If it�s stats you want, I have enough power ratings, conference rankings and offensive and defensive numbers to make a census-taker swoon. You want testimonials? You�d think it was a political campaign, so many common opponents have backed the Beavers as the better team. Hey, it�s not rocket science. The better team is playing the biggest game of the year on its home field. Hello! Does common sense no longer apply because it�s close to home? I think not. There are some out there who would spot a duck in the ointment and argue the Beavers aren�t the better team. Oregon is, after all, ranked higher, unbeaten in the Pac-10 Conference and has the inside track to the Rose Bowl. But take a closer look: The most obvious barometer is the past month, when OSU and UO each played Arizona, California and Washington State. The Beavers beat those teams by an average of 36-17, or three touchdowns. Oregon won by an average of 22-17, not even a touchdown�s difference, and two were in overtime. If it�s close, yes, Oregon might well exhibit poise. But why should it be close? The Beavers haven�t scored fewer than 30 points since the second game of the season. The Ducks haven�t scored more than 30 points but once in the last seven games. The trend over the past month is further detailed in power rankings compiled by the National Sports Service. The Ducks began the season with an 82 rating, reached a zenith of 87 through six weeks, and now have dovetailed to 84.5. The Beavers started lower, at 77.5, were at 84 through six weeks and now are at 89. It�s easy to get caught up in the numbers � there are so many impressive ones for the Beavers � but indulge me just these few more. In the Pac-10, OSU is ranked first in total offense and scoring offense and first in total defense and scoring defense. There are few teams in the country as balanced as Oregon State, let alone in the Willamette Valley. It�s understandable, I suppose, if the Beavers snuck up on people. Their growth was stunted at season�s start because newcomer Chad Johnson, a wide receiver, was learning the system and suspended slotback Robert Prescott missed the first three games. It wasn�t until the fourth game that they and flanker T.J. Houshmandzadeh were on the field together in their rightful positions. How important is it to have them in sync? The trio has 92 catches and 14 touchdowns. Their presence has made quarterback Jonathan Smith an efficient, big-play threat, which in turn has spread the field and created openings for the inimitable Ken Simonton and his tailback apprentice, Patrick McCall. Toss in tight end Marty Maurer from Jacksonville, who is third among the Beavers with 28 receptions, and you have an offense with more weapons than a video game. There have been contests � Arizona State 235 yards, USC 229 � in which Oregon couldn�t stop a run in a stocking. It gets considerably tougher with Simonton, the only back in Pac-10 history to run for 1,000 yards as a freshman, sophomore and junior. On defense, the Beavers� passion for flying to the ball and hitting hard sometimes gets them in trouble. I can only imagine how jacked up they�ll be in front of the biggest, loudest crowd in school history. Don, you mention a couple of other areas to which I must respond. Coaching, for instance. Oregon�s Mike Bellotti, I agree, is very good. But simply being underrated does not give him an edge over the venerable Dennis Erickson. Erickson is No. 7 among active coaches in winning percentage (.736) and 15th in total victories (129). He does not take a back seat. And history? We can go back to when the players ran around with what looked like baseball mitts on their heads � the leather-helmet era � when the Beavers absolutely owned the Ducks from 1936-39, winning four straight and pitching three shutouts. But that seems pointless. The history that matters is the last time Oregon went to Corvallis and the Beavers triumphed, 44-41, in double overtime. It won�t be that close this time. The Beaver defense, feeding off the electricity at game�s start, sets the tone and smothers the Duck offense. OSU takes an early lead, Oregon abandons the run in a desperate attempt to play catch-up and the Beavers win comfortably, 31-17. And if anyone wants to leave a couple of tickets on my dashboard, feel free. Reach sports editor Tim Trower at 776-4479, or e-mail [email protected] Mail Tribune Home | Ottaway Newspapers, Inc. | Dow Jones & Co., Inc. | Privacy | Contact Us Copyright � 2000 Mail Tribune, Inc.