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Principal Investigator: Jake J. Hays
Organization: UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR
Fiscal Year: 2024
Award: $36,536
Funding agency: Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development
PROJECT SUMMARY. The economy and the family—two social institutions that strongly affect health and
well-being in the US—have undergone profound change in the last half-century. The economy changed
through the stagnation of male wages, declining manufacturing jobs and rising service sector employment, and
increases in inequality. Simultaneously, US families experienced increases in instability (repeated changes in
parental marital/union status) and complexity (families that exist outside the typical nuclear family structure)
through the late 1990s, such that approximately 40% of children currently live in complex families. Local
economic conditions, like income inequality, are linked with singular family formation behaviors, like nonmarital
births. Yet, the relationship between local economic conditions and family instability and complexity remains
unknown. The objective of the proposed research project is to assess how local economic conditions—
unemployment rates, wage stagnation, occupational structure, and income inequality—are associated with
patterns of family instability and complexity, identifying how these associations developed over historical time
and vary by social location. Aim 1 will establish contemporary (1997-2017) patterns of family instability and
complexity by local economic conditions. Aim 2 will assess how changes in local economic conditions are
linked with changes in family instability and complexity over historical time, comparing three periods: 1969-
1975 (early family change), 1976-1996 (rapid family change), 1997-2017 (family change plateau). Aim 3 will
assess variation by race and educational attainment in the associations between local economic conditions
and family instability and complexity. The PI will use advanced quantitative methods—sequence analysis,
demographic decomposition, spatial data analysis, and causal inference techniques—to address these aims,
and the use of nationally-representative data will produce generalizable results. Collectively, the aims will
generate rigorous evidence on (1) whether and how local economic conditions affect patterns of family
structure change, and (2) which children are most likely to be exposed to family instability and complexity.
These findings are relevant to population health because family instability and complexity compromise the
health and well-being of parents and children. This research project is part of a broader, 3-year postdoctoral
training fellowship at a top research university, supervised by a team of mentors with expertise in family demo-
graphy and economic inequality. The training plan comprises: (1) substantive training in family demography,
economic conditions, and economic inequality; (2) advanced quantitative methods training that will facilitate a
career in population health-relevant research; and (3) professional development through increased research
independence, grant writing, conference presentations, and networking. The training plan will prepare the PI to
conduct innovative research on how social and economic conditions shape family structure trajectories across
the lifespan, which has consequences for population dynamics and population health.
Terms: <0-11 years old><21+ years old><Address><Adult><Adult Human><Affect><Area><Attention><Behavior><Birth><Child><Child Health><Child Welfare><Child Youth><Children (0-21)><Cluster Analyses><Cluster Analysis><Complex><County><Data><Data Analyses><Data Analysis><Data Sources><Development><Economic Conditions><Economic Factors><Economic Income><Economical Conditions><Economical Factors><Economical Income><Economics><Education><Educational Achievement><Educational Status><Educational aspects><Employment><Environment><Event><Exposure to><Family><Family Demographies><Fellowship><First Births><Goals><Grant><Health><Imprisonment><Income><Inequality><Institution><Jobs><Link><Location><Measures><Mentors><Methods><Modeling><Nuclear Family><Occupational><Occupations><Parents><Parturition><Pattern><Personal Satisfaction><Population Dynamics><Process><Professional Positions><R-Series Research Projects><R01 Mechanism><R01 Program><Race><Races><Research><Research Grants><Research Project Grants><Research Projects><SEQ-AN><Salaries><Selection Bias><Sequence Analyses><Sequence Analysis><Services><Shapes><Social Class><Social Conditions><Societal Conditions><Stepfamilies><Structural Models><Structure><Tail><Techniques><Testing><Time><Training><Transmission><Unemployment><Universities><Variant><Variation><Wages><Woman><Writing><adolescent welfare><adulthood><black female><black male><black men><black women><career><child well being><child wellbeing><college><collegiate><conference><convention><data interpretation><developmental><disparities in race><disparity due to race><disparity in health><economic><educational level><experience><family structure><health disparity><incarcerated><incarceration><incomes><inequality due to race><inequity due to race><innovate><innovation><innovative><intergenerational><jobless><joblessness><kids><life span><lifespan><local economy><male><manufacture><men><out of work><panel study of income dynamics><parent><parent influence><parental influence><population health><post-doctoral training><postdoctoral training><race based disparity><race based inequality><race based inequity><race disparity><race related disparity><race related inequality><race related inequity><racial><racial background><racial disparity><racial inequality><racial inequity><racial origin><racially unequal><social><social factors><summit><symposia><symposium><training achievement><training level><training status><transmission process><unemployed><well-being><wellbeing><youngster>