2016 31 May 2015
2016 31 May 2015
Integrated Oil
US Integrated Oils
Canada
Volume growth will be primarily driven by expansions to existing oil sands
projects with a handful of projects (Kearl, Surmont, Horizon, Foster Creek,
AOSP, Sunrise) accounting for -60% of the estimated 2014-2017 production
growth.
With falling oil prices accelerating a decline in capital spending (with some
operators announcing reductions in excess of 75% to their budgets from
2014); the longer-term (2017+) production impact resulting from subsequent
project delays represents in our view the primary risk. However, we would not
want to underscore the risk to production that stems from a regulatory/political
environment in which efforts to resolve infrastructure bottlenecks have been
challenged. We view the near-term risk to production from the commodity to
be mostly contained as US production -roll off in 2HI5 alongside seasonal
demand uplift to support a moderately constructive view on crude prices.
Figure 77: Canada Production Outlook, 2014-2020e
(lY1bIcl)
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0 •
2014 2015
teBase 2016
Sawa. Onset. • ant Med ASSera AEA 2017 2018 2019
&Growth Bbls 2020
Figure 79: Crude volume growth outlook by project
status (Mb/d)
sae
5030
4400
3030
2030
0
2014 2015
—6441
Meier Dliv4103m4n1
••••011 EON Cell
Sans Dania an WOOd AOdetr, 6a 2017 2018 3319 2020
®Oise M 014944411 AS4401
FY40404 Dev4140m4411 Figure 7F£ Production by type (area chart of onshore vs.
!shallow vs. deepwater (MWd)
6000
5000 1
4000 1
3000
2000
1000
0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2016 2019 2020
• Unconventional •Onshore (Cony) • Shallow water (Cony)
Sown PAW,* elank, MOO* &Web.. MA
Figure BO: 2017 Production Swing (Bear vs. Bull) of —190
iMbld (14b/d)
ens
taro twang ant 11 great 944U et% 24 in armor fig44
State Ono:ft ant Med AttAlleVA EA 4319
4201
e144 Bul
Page 44 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
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