From: Jeffrey <[email protected]>
From: Jeffrey <[email protected]>
Sent: Friday, October 19, 2012 3:28 PM
To: Barrett, Paul S
Subject: Re: To Do - NEW HY RMBS - $7.521mm of SEMI 03-5 B1 @ $80-16 (6.15% yield /
5.62 durn)
Ok
Sorry for all the typos .Sen= from my iPhone
On Oct 19, 2012, at 5:17 PM, "Barrett, Paul S=
> wrote:
Hi Jeffrey
This bond looks interesting=
I would like to take profit= on our Barclays Pfd which is yielding 3.70% and buy this mortgage bond. We=are up
$154K all in on the Barclays Pfd.
let me know
Paul
US Onshore Clients — Blue Sky (U.S. State Securities Law): Please co=firm Blue Sky eligibility before soliciting to a
US Onshore client by enter=ng the CUSIP into the web tool located at:
httpl=pscppyl.amer.jpmchase.net:8080/BlueSkyPage.html
EFTA_R1_00074341
EFTA01765918
chttp://pscppvl.amer.jpmchase.net:8080/BlueSkyPage.html> and review to-see if your client's state of residence is
listed. If you receive 4k=8O4kNO SECURITY FOUND', 'NO STATES FOUND' or the security DOES NOT HAVE A CUSIP or is
not USD-denominated, then please conta=t your SM or local compliance officer and provide the requested security an=
client information. Please note that a suitability review and other pre-tr=de procedures must still be followed.
=/b>
The SEMT 03-5 B1 is a pr=me subordinate bond rated BB+/B2/BBB and is backed by 110 month seasoned Pr=me
Vanilla ARM mortgages. The pool has 60.35% updated LW, 84% always current borrowers (looking back 2 years), 271k
average bala=ce and most importantly, 4.7% credit support vs only 3.55% 60+ delinquency. The way I lo=k at it, if 100%
of the 60+ delinquent borrowers were immediately evicted a=d foreclosed on and the repossessed homes sold for $0,
the pool would incur=3.55% losses. In this grim scenario I painted, this B1 bond would still receive no writedowns.
Additionally, this deal is immediately callable by the servicer since the co=lateral factor is below the 10% range.
This deal becomes more callabl= as time passes and in the scenario where rates were to back up, the ARM mo=tgages in
this pool would be worth considerably more on bank balance sheets. With only 3.55% delinquent l=ans, this deal is
already clean enough to call, it's really a matte= of economics for the servicer at this point. In our recovery scenari=, we
are assuming the deal is called 3 years from today even though the bonds are callable right now.
In our stress scenario, we default approximately 2.6x the current 60+ delinq=ent population at 60 severity
ramping down over 2 years to 40. Wet=99re also running half the 6 month speeds and see this bond producing a
5.0=% yield for a 6.03 duration bond.
*** THIS BOND IS OFFERED TO US AND THE STREET AT 84-16. I see value in=this bond @ 80-16 but there is no
guarantee we can trade it there.
HIGHLIGHTS
- =nbsp; HPI Updated L=V = 60%
- =nbsp; 84% of the b=rrowers have not missed a payment in the past 2 years
- =nbsp; 110 months s=asoned
- =nbsp; 732 FICO
=nbsp; $271k averag= balance
"Source: Bloomberg
SEMT 2003-5 B1 Offered @ 80-1=
BOND DESCRIPTION
2
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Prepay Rate
3 CPR
5 CPR
8 CPR
Cusi=:
81743PCR5
Default Rate</=> 2.5 ramp 24 1 CDR
2 ramp 24 0.75 0.5 CDR
2 ramp 24 0.5 CDR
Orig=nal Face:
7,521,500
Default Severity
60 ramp 24 40
50 40 ramp 24 35
45 ramp 24 30
Curr=nt Face:
1,863,319
Delinq Rate
4 Percent
4 Percent
4 Percent
Bond=Type:
Seasoned Prime Subs
Delinq Advance (% of P&I)
100
100
3
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100
Rati=gs (S&P/Moodys/Fitch):
BB+/B3/BBB/s-
Optional Servicer Call
N
N
10/2015
Curr=nt Coupon:
1.119%
** Run to Fwd LIBOR<=span>
Yiel= @ Base Case
6.149%
WAL @=Base Case
7.11
Prin=ipal Window @ Base Case
Nov12 to Aug33
Price @ 80-16
Stress Case
Base Case
Recovery Case
Writ=down %
Yield</=> 5.015
6.149
10.416
Curr=nt Credit Enhancement:
4
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4.70%
Spread over Tsy
357
481
996
60+ D=linquencies
3.55
Duration
6.03
5.62
2.29
60+ D=linquency Coverage
1.32x
WAL
= 7.69
7.11
2.53
Principal Window
Nov12 to Aug33
Nov12 to Aug33
Nov12 to Nov15
UNDERLYING COLLATERAL DESCRIPTIO=
Principal Writedown</=pan>
8.63%
0.00%
0.00%
5
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Aver=ge Loan Balance ($,000s)
271
Total Collat Loss
0.56%
0.41%
0.35%
Loan=Count
211
Total Liquidation
9.20%
5.13%
2.57%
Mort=age Type
Seasoned Prime Vanilla ARMs
Wtd A=g Mortgage Coupon
2.332%
HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE</=:p>
<=p> <=p> <=p>
Wtd A=g FICO Score
732
<=p> 1 MOS
3 MOS
6 MOS
Wtd A=g Orig Loan-to-Value
60.67%
CPR
6
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4.30
6.01
6.52
HPI A=j LTV
60.35%
CDR
0.00
0.00
0.00
Weig=ted Avg Loan Age
110
SEV
NA
NA
NA
Owne= Occupied
84.21
Top 1=Geo Concentration
CA 14%
Top 2=Geo Concentration
FL 13%
Top 3=Geo Concentration
GA 11%
Alwa=s Current (24 mos)
7
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84.06%
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER:
Non-agency RMBS is a complex fix=d income product and is not suitable for all investors. Please note t=at while
desk assumptions are driven by a number of collateral and macro factors, the historical performance of a deal is not
indicativ= of its future performance. Additionally, this message is a produ=t of sales and trading and is not a research
report. Other key risks t= consider are outlined below:
- =nbsp; All investments=are subject to possible loss of principal
- =nbsp; Non-Agency bond= may have limited liquidity and clients should be aware that the secondary
m=rket for mortgage-backed securities has experienced periods of illiquidity and may do so in the future. Illiquidity
means that there ma= not be any purchasers for your class of certificates. Although any class o= certificates may
experience illiquidity, it is more likely that classes th=t are lower in the capital structure and non-investment grade
related may experience greater illiquidity than mo=e senior, investment -grade rated classes.
- =nbsp; High Yield Non-=gency bonds are speculative non-investment grade bonds that have higher ris= of
default or other adverse credit events which are appropriate for high risk investors only
Non-Agency bonds are intend=d for clients with a minimum total net worth of $50mm. Please make su=e your
client fulfills this requirement before soliciting this order.
http://www.jpmorgan.com/pages/disclosures/email <http://www.jpmorgan.com/pag=s/disclosures/email> . =
8
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