Sent Fri 2/15/2013 11:02:20 AM

From: Sent Fri 2/15/2013 11:02:20 AM Subject Early Tour 2.15.13 Good Morning ... European Markets off 0-40 bps... ASX -0.06%, NKY -1.18%, KOSPI +0.08%, HSI +0.13% EUR 1.3332 (-0.22%) JPY 92.56 (+0.33%) EUR/JPY 123.46 (-0.52%) SEK 6.3396 (-0.42%) AUD 1.0356 (-0.03%) Spain 10yr 5.18% Italy 10yr 4.37% US 10yr 1.99% Copper +0.09% Silver -0.45% Futures: Dow -12, Nasdaq -3, S&P -2 DXY $80.47 (-1c) Crude 596.84 (-47c) Gold 51627.60 (- $7.90) Asian markets were mixed overnight in relatively quiet trading — overall volumes were down about 15% from the 30d avg and HK had its lightest day of the year. JPY strengthened to 92.25 intra-day, ahead of this weekend's G-20 meeting and driven partly by a Reuters story naming Toshiro Muto as the latest frontrunner to lead the BOJ (he is seen as the least dovish among the possible candidates). Next week China and Taiwan resume trading on Monday from a week's break and earnings include BHP Billiton, CapitaLand, Genting Singapore, and Qantas. In addition, the RBA and the BOJ both release minutes and Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand release GDP data. G20 meeting in Moscow today and Draghi has reiterated most of his comments from last week's ECB press conference. Luxury retailer PPR (PP FP ) trading +6.0% and breaking out to new highs after posting solid results and leading the luxury way higher in Europe today. Herbalife +23.7% after the close as Icahn surfaces with a 12.98% stake (2.47 million shares + options on 11.54 million) and says he plans to seek talks that include possibilities of recap and going private. SPA's -2 handles = 1516.20 last. ***Empire Manufacturing t 8:30am, IP @ 9:15am, Michigan Confidence 9:55am*** ***CPB, KRFT, SJM earnings pre-open, Cyprus elections on Sunday*" ***US Markets Closed Monday for Presidents Day*** • CBS sets record for quarter but profit fell short of ests (streaming sales weak) (trading -1%) EFTA_R1_00806433 EFTA02147513 • Brocade eps & revs beat but profit hit big with one time charge (solid growth) (trading -1%) • Agilent O4 net down 22% on margin weakness & cut FY forecast on govt spending (trading -7%) • Procter & Gamble cut profit outlook by 7c-9c on Venezuelan devaluation (trading -1%) • LogMeln forecast both yr adjusted eps & revenues below ests ($25M shr buyback) (trading -20%) • Icahn reports 12.98% stake in Herbalife (2.47M shares + options on 11.54M) (trading +23.7%) • PNC Financial names William Demchak to succeed Rohr as CEO effective April 23 2013 • NPD reports that January adjusted video game software sales (19%) yly (Dow Jones) • Rogers Communications (RCl/B CN) President & CEO Mohamed to retire January 2014 • PPR strong FY, good margins, FY earnings exceed, Bottega drives luxury, confident for 2013 (trading +7.1%) • ENI good O4, EBIT inline, prod unchanged, better upstream, dividend inline, +ve FX effect (trading +2.7%) • Commerzbank Q4 loss €716 million = broadly inline with pre-release, slightly better CT1 (trading +3.1%) • LSE drops most in 6 months as LCH.Cleamet's low growth and weak EBITDA weighs (trading - 6.2%) • Aegon O4 net beats, cancelling pref shs to simplify cash base, domestic weak, inline div (trading +4.8%) • Aker Solutions Q4 miss, EBITDA and pretax weak, sales inline, order intake okay (trading -11.6%) • Sulzer FY sales, EBIT slight better, strong orders and cash flow, outlook flat (trading -0.4%) • Detnor Q4 revs better, good well pipeline potential, raising production guidance (trading +5%) • Anglo American FY EPS better, EBIT in line, platinum solid, iron ore inline, div better (trading +1.8%) • Darty O3 warning "sales trends have softened", may miss lower end of pretax (trading -7%) • BG Group announce Fabio Barbosa to step down as CEO for personal reasons (trading +0.4%) • Severn Trent IMS okay, revenue guidance inline, outlook maintained (trading -0.8%) • HMB January sales all inline as communicated in Q4's earlier (trading +0.2%) • Greencore supplied beef Bolognese to Asda found with traces of horse DNA (trading -14%) • Rautaruukki weak O4, EBIT misses, dividend light, guidance disappoints (trading -4.4%) • UK Jan retail sales unexpectedly drop as snow deters shoppers (-0.6% m/m vs est +0.5%) EFTA_R1_00806434 EFTA02147514 • Spain January CPI -1.3% m/m versus estimate -1.4% (+2.7% yly versus estimate +2.6%) • Weidmann says ECB will abstain from manipulating EUR (won't cut rates just to weaken) • Weidmann says that the Irish swap may breach monetary state financing ban (Bloomberg) • Russian official says over 250 people have been injured in meteor shower (AFP) • Soros said to have made $1 billion since November on bets against the Yen (Bloomberg) • The Hong Kong stock exchange will begin after-hours futures trading on April 8 (Bloomberg) Leading European Sectors: Healthcare +0.47%, TravlLes +0.27%, Basic Res +0.25% Lagging European Sectors: Utilities -0.58%, Fin Services -0.52%, Banks -0.39% USTR record revs — WOOF solid #'s — NSIT eps light BGS eps worse — SCOR penny better — BDE cfo resigns HTBI buyback — NR penny better — MASI 6M shr buyback RCI ceo to retire — HMA inline — EHTH guides FY13 up OLIK strong Q4 — ELLI guides above ests — ACTV mixed Ws Secondaries (announced/priced): SQNS, CLF, PXD, KOS, MOEX RU IPO's (filed/priced): Xoom (XOOM) 6.3M shares priced at $16 (above range) US Key Research: Barcap initiates YNDXIMAIL LN (ow) & CTCM (uw), DB downgrades RIG (sell), JPM cuts LOGM GS reinstates CAG (neut) & cuts DVA, Jeff cuts STI, Opco initiates LGP, W. Blair initiates GRMN (op) • Roth initiates ECYT (buy) & upgrades SASS (buy), Stifel initiates ABT (buy), Jeff downgrades STI • Well initiates TGI (op) & downgrades NWE, HSBC downgrades WTR, Needham downgrades BELFB • Raja downgrades HLX, CLSA upgrades PEP (buy), Citi cuts HBAN & GOLD/CMA (sell's) EFTA_R1_00806435 EFTA02147515 Europe Key Research: UBS downgrade FNC IM, TPS PW, upgrade THYAO TI, JPM upgrade RASP RU, RNO FP • Citi downgrade FRES LN, downgrade RRS LN, ABI BB added as best idea • MS upgrade IMI LN, initiate VSVSLN (ew), CS downgrade GJF NO • Kepler upgrade ALCLA FP, downgrade LEHN SW, CBK upgrade EAON GY, RWE GY SocGen initiate EKTAB SS (b), Swedbank upgrade HLDX SS, IMI downgrade SFL IM • Peel downgrade UBM LN, HSBC downgrade ABG LN, upgrade KPN NA • Sabadell upgrade ABI BB, DNB downgrade GJF NO, Akro upgrade IP IM • Exane downgrade TATE LN, Chev upgrade GXI GY, TEC FP, Good downgrade PTEC LN Bern downgrade EAD FP, Libr initiate IPT LN (h), PCTN LN (h), SLI LN (b), TRY LN (b) • Medio upgrade BRE IM, Nordea downgrade NETIB SS, SEB downgrade AKSO NO • Oriel downgrade AMEC LN, Investec upgrade ENI IM, Numis downgrade TLPR LN • Nordea upgrade NOK1V FH, TALV LN, SAMAS FH, downgrade AKSO NO, OUT1V FH, NETIB SS Reporting Pre-Open: AEP, CPB, KRFT, SJM, VFC, VTR, ABR, ALE, ALR, BAM, BKW, CADC, COT, DLR, FET, FVE, GLCH, IPGP, LECO, LPNT, LSE, MNTA, NGL, NHI, PPC, RUTH, SNH, TOWR, TRW, UPL, VIAS, VTG, WBC Reporting Post-Close: CYMI, HE Economic Data: Empire Manufacturing @ 8:30am, TIC Flows © 9am, Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization i 9:15am, U. of Michigan Confidence @ 9:55am Fed Speakers: Pianalto i 9:50am (Ft. Meyers, FL) Conferences: No major conferences EFTA_R1_00806436 EFTA02147516 Analyst/Investor Days: AEP, GTXI, RHP, ONNN Non-Deal Roadshows: BRLI, CPHD, ENTG, EQIX, JBL, MAT, NVDQ, SLF, STO, VR Shareholder Meetings: ADAT, JACK, EV, SLP Equity/Mixed Shelfs: N/A Other Newspaper Articles & Stories Barron's positive: Parker Hannifin (PH) Barron's WSJ positive: AB InBev & STZ's revised deal WSJ WSJ cautious: Europe's proposed Financial Transaction Tax WSJ • SEC looks at trades a day before Heinz deal NYT • Shifting blame muddles S&P suit WSJ • Broker draws Tullett into Libor scandal FT • G20 in search of recovery FT • Portugal eyes full return to bond markets FT • Brussels vows to fight Tobin tax hurdles FT • Norway bank chief warns on oil reliance FT • Eurozone hopes worst is over FT • Oligarchy at the core of Spain's scandals FT • Heinz: a sauce too rich Lex • AB InBev and the quiet life Lex EFTA_R1_00806437 EFTA02147517 • Nestle: kit for kat Lex • ABB: pricing pressures ease Lex • Europe Woes deepen as economies contract WSJ • Shopping Spree for Wall Street WSJ • G20 considering slowing budget cuts WSJ • Europe Taxes the World WSJ • Meteorite Falls in Russian Urals WSJ • Deferred Pay Draws Fed's Scrutiny WSJ • How Homeowners Are Getting Solar Panels Without a Lot of Upfront Cash WSJ • EU tax on share deals will apply to the City after all The Times • Britvic and AG Barr set sights on reviving deal The Times • $43bn burning a hole in Warren Buffett's pocket The Times • Treasury has put taxpayer 'at risk' with QE Telegraph • QE is still effective but we have other tools Telegraph • Currency wars come to Moscow as G20 meets Guardian • Solar firms plan to reach full capacity utilization rate DigiTimes Key Events Next Week Monday: US Markets closed for President's Day Tuesday: NAHB Housing Market Index, CAGNY Conference (Boca Raton, FL), Earnings (ESRX, GPC, MDT, NI, SEE, ADI, CF, DELL, HLF, MAR, NBR) Wednesday: FOMC Minutes, PPI, MBA Mortgage Applications, Housing Starts & Building Permits, Earnings (AEE, DTE, DVN, XRAY, SZYM, WMB) Thursday: Philadelphia Fed, Existing Home Sales, CPI, US & Europe Flash PMI, Barclays Industrial Select Conference (Miami, FL), Earnings (CHK, HRL, HST, SWY, WMT, AIG, HPQ, INTU, JWN, EFTA_R1_00806438 EFTA02147518 SBAC) Friday: Earnings (ANF, IPG, PNW, WPO) Key Events on the Horizon February 24/25 — Italian elections February 27 — First repayment for LTRO2 March 1 — Automatic spending cuts of sequestration set to begin ($1.2 trillion over 10 years, 50% from defense) March 7 — Fed to release stress test results for big banks March 14 — Fed to release decisions on proposed capital plans of banks March 19 — BOJ governor Masaaki Shirakawa stepping down (successor likely to be named by end of Feb) April 15 — #NoBudgetNoPay deadline for Congress May 19 — US debt ceiling limit July 1 — Mark Carney takes over as BOE Governor September — German elections EFTA_R1_00806439 EFTA02147519 This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential and intended only for the person or entity to which it Is addressed. 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