From: Paul Barrett

EFTA02604683 Dataset 11 5 pages Download original PDF Download as text
From: Paul Barrett Sent: Tuesday, August 14, 2018 9:19 PM To: Jeffrey E. Cc: Richard Kahn Subject: FW: EM Decent recovery today in Turkey. TRY up 8%...still down 23% MTD BRL up 50bps RUB up 2% Turkey rally driven by: &nb=p; massively oversold conditions in the short term=o:p> &nb=p; finally hints of more conventional solutions to=the current problems in Turkey &nb=p; FIN Minister: "FISCAL POLICY TO BE AN EVE= STRONGER ANCHOR. PRIORITY IS TO FIGHT AGAINST INFLATION, C/A DEFICI=" &nb=p; Finance minister holding a conference call on T=ursday morning I still think it is still too early to get involved.=They still have a massive amount of $ denominated corporate debt that need= to be rolled over this year and the market will want to see a more viable=central bank plan to contain the situation. Paul Paul Barrett Alpha Group Capital LLC 142 W 57th Street, 11th Floor,=New York, NY 10019 EFTA_R1_01794725 EFTA02604683 From: Paul Barrett Sent: Monday, August 13, 2018 4:10 PM To: 'jeffrey E.' <[email protected]> Cc: 'Richard Kahn' Subject: EM Jeffrey Summary of some options when ready: • Brazil local currency bond prices have been very stable. Most of the =ove has been in USDBRL. Best Option — Brazil 12.5% 2022 @7% YTM denom in BRL (vs lyr F= forward implying 6.9%) • Russian RUB govt bonds down 2=points. Mainly a RUB move. Best Option - Russia 6.4% 5/27/2020 @ 7.45% YTM denom in RUB (vs lyr=FX forward implying 7.06%) • Turkey TRY denominated gov= bonds down 10 points since last week and 36 points since April (63 price)= Yielding 21%. I prefer using a lyr TRY forward which equates to a 27% yie=d and not worry about illiquidity in their bond market. FX Spot Changes<=o:p> =/p> 1 month 3 month 6 month 1 yr BRL -1.33% 2 EFTA_R1_01794726 EFTA02604684 -7.80% -15.44% -18% RUB -7.93% -8.85% -15% -12% TRY -31% -38.27% -45.50% -49.40% Implied Interest Rate=based on FX Forwards =/p> Spot 3 month 6 month 1 yr BRL =3.9000 3.34% 4.30% 6.91% RUB =nbsp; 68.03 3 EFTA_R1_01794727 EFTA02604685 3.43% 4.71% 7.06% TRY 6.9800 8.33% 14.69% 27.88% FX vol has also exploded. Do you want to see some option price=? The risk reversals are also pricing very well given how USD call vol has=exploded vs USD puts. • BRL 3 month vol has gone from 12% to 20% • RUB 3 m=nth vol has gone from 10% to 16% * TRY 3 month vol has =one from 20% to 47% Below is a list of the most liquid bonds:=/p> Brazil Petrobras 5.299% 1/27/2025 @ 6.35% YTM — USD D=nominated 'tau 6.2% 12/21/2021 @ 4.73% YTM — USD Denomin=ted Brazil 12.5% 1/5/2022 @ 7.00% YTM — BRL Denomi=ated Russia RFLB 6.7% 5/15/2019 @ 6.58% YTM — RUB Denomina=ed RFLB 6.80% 12/11/2019 @ 7.01% YTM — RUB Denomi=ated RFLB 6.4% 5/27/2020 @ 7.45% YTM — RUB Denomina=ed 4 EFTA_R1_01794728 EFTA02604686 Turkey Garanti 6.25% 4/20/2021 @ 10.74% rum - USD Den=minated — Turkish Bank Turkey Sovereign 7% 6/5/2020 @ 8.44% YTM— USD =enominated Turkey Sovereign 12.4% 03/08/28 @ 21 YTM— TRY =enominated Paul Barrett Alpha Group Capital LLC 142 W 57th Street, 11th Floor,=New York, NY 10019 5 EFTA_R1_01794729 EFTA02604687

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[Image 1] The image shows a document that appears to be a letter or a form. It contains text and a signature at the bottom. The document is addressed to a recipient named "Paul Brown" and is dated "January 20, 2017." The text includes a subject line, a salutation, and a body with several paragraphs. The visible text includes phrases such as "Dear Paul," "Subject:," "I am writing to you," and "Thank you for [Image 2] The image shows a document that appears to be a letter or a report. The document is addressed to a person named "Barry" and is dated "20th October 2010." The visible text includes a salutation, a body with several paragraphs, and a closing. The text discusses financial matters, such as interest rates and investments, and includes numerical data and percentages. The document is structured with head [Image 3] The image shows a document with text and numerical data. It appears to be a financial or business-related document, possibly a report or a statement. The text includes headings such as "Summary," "Details," and "Footnotes," with subheadings like "Revenue," "Expenses," and "Net Income." There are also numerical figures and percentages indicating financial data, such as "Revenue," "Expenses," "Net I [Image 4] The image appears to be a photograph of a document, specifically a letter or a memo. The document is addressed to "Mr. John Doe" and is from "ABC Group, Inc." The visible text includes a date, which seems to be in the month of April, and a reference number. The document mentions a "Purchase Order" and includes a list of items with quantities and descriptions. There are also sections titled "Shippi [Image 5] The image shows a text document with a list of percentages. The percentages are arranged in two columns, with the left column showing the percentage values and the right column showing the corresponding names or labels. The document appears to be a table or a list of data, possibly related to some sort of survey or statistical analysis. The percentages range from 0.00% to 100.00%, and the names or