Pollster Scoreboard
Earned accuracy per pollster, calibrated against measured outcomes — not assigned. The house effect column is the signed 12-month bias (positive = R-skewed, negative = D-skewed). RMSE is the rolling 12-month error against recorded outcomes. The 538 columns are the empirical reference seed, NOT a Profoundd endorsement; the bias score on the left is what the system actually uses for weighting.
| Pollster | Bias score | Source | House effect (12mo) | RMSE (12mo) | 538 grade | 538 bias ppm | Polls | AAPOR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 4 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 2.80 | -1.80 | 1101 | |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 5 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 0.00 | -0.40 | 785 | |
| YouGov | 4 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 3.00 | -1.70 | 596 | |
| Zogby Analytics | 5 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 1.20 | -0.30 | 596 | |
| Public Policy Polling | 5 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 1.40 | -0.30 | 537 | |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 4 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 2.60 | -1.70 | 498 | |
| SurveyMonkey | 5 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 2.00 | +0.00 | 354 | |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 5 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 1.50 | -0.30 | 306 | |
| American Research Group | 4 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 2.30 | -1.20 | 304 | ✓ |
| Quinnipiac University | 5 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 2.80 | -1.00 | 288 | ✓ |
| Ipsos | 4 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 2.80 | -1.40 | 267 | ✓ |
| Emerson College | 4 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 2.90 | -1.30 | 266 | ✓ |
| Marist College | 4 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 2.90 | -1.10 | 209 | ✓ |
| InsiderAdvantage | 5 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 2.00 | -0.60 | 196 | |
| Kaplan Strategies | 4 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 2.00 | -1.70 | 172 | |
| CNN | 4 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 2.80 | -1.10 | 169 | ✓ |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 5 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 2.60 | -0.70 | 149 | ✓ |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 5 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 2.90 | -1.00 | 146 | ✓ |
| Trafalgar Group | 6 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 0.70 | +1.60 | 131 | |
| Change Research | 5 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 1.40 | -0.10 | 123 | ✓ |
| Suffolk University | 4 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 2.90 | -1.50 | 122 | ✓ |
| Data for Progress | 4 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 2.60 | -1.90 | 122 | |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 4 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 3.00 | -2.00 | 120 | ✓ |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 5 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 1.60 | +0.00 | 118 | ✓ |
| Gallup | 5 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 2.50 | -0.70 | 104 | ✓ |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 4 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 3.00 | -1.30 | 97 | ✓ |
| Morning Consult | 5 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 1.90 | -0.90 | 96 | |
| Swayable | 5 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 0.00 | -0.60 | 89 | ✓ |
| GQR | 5 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 2.00 | +0.30 | 88 | ✓ |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 4 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 2.40 | -1.20 | 84 | ✓ |
| RT Strategies | 5 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 0.00 | -0.50 | 84 | |
| Siena College | 5 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 2.70 | -1.00 | 81 | ✓ |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 4 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 2.80 | -1.40 | 73 | ✓ |
| EPIC-MRA | 5 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 1.90 | -0.50 | 65 | |
| We Ask America | 5 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 0.00 | -0.60 | 64 | |
| Selzer & Co. | 4 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 2.80 | -1.20 | 62 | ✓ |
| ccAdvertising | 5 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 0.00 | +0.50 | 62 | |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 5 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 2.30 | -0.40 | 59 | |
| Remington Research Group | 4 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 2.60 | -1.20 | 57 | |
| Research Co. | 5 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 2.40 | -1.00 | 56 | |
| Civiqs | 5 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 2.40 | +0.00 | 56 | |
| Research & Polling Inc. | 5 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 2.10 | -1.00 | 56 | |
| Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | 4 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 2.60 | -1.10 | 53 | ✓ |
| Global Strategy Group | 5 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 1.80 | -0.10 | 53 | |
| Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group | 5 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 2.50 | -0.80 | 48 | ✓ |
| Tarrance Group | 5 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 1.60 | +0.00 | 48 | |
| Dan Jones & Associates | 5 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 1.90 | -0.70 | 47 | |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 5 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 1.00 | +0.70 | 47 | |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 6 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 0.50 | +1.90 | 47 | |
| CBS News/The New York Times | 5 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 0.00 | -0.60 | 47 | ✓ |
| University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) | 5 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 0.00 | +0.20 | 46 | |
| Princeton Survey Research Associates International | 5 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 0.00 | -0.70 | 44 | ✓ |
| Impact Research | 5 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 1.50 | +0.30 | 43 | |
| Cygnal | 4 | 538 | -65.00 pp | 65.00 | 2.10 | -1.20 | 42 | |
| Opinion Dynamics | 5 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 0.00 | -0.50 | 40 | ✓ |
| Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | 4 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 2.80 | -1.20 | 39 | ✓ |
| Landmark Communications | 5 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 2.10 | -0.80 | 39 | |
| Grove Insight | 5 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 0.00 | +0.20 | 39 | |
| RMG Research | 5 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 2.30 | -0.80 | 38 | |
| Angus Reid Global | 5 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 2.00 | -0.20 | 38 | |
| Los Angeles Times | 5 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 0.00 | -0.60 | 38 | ✓ |
| Market Shares Corp. | 5 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 0.00 | -0.10 | 38 | |
| TIPP Insights | 5 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 1.80 | +0.40 | 36 | |
| Lucid | 5 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 0.00 | +0.10 | 36 | |
| MRG Research | 5 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 1.10 | +0.70 | 35 | |
| RKM Research and Communications Inc. | 5 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 0.00 | -0.10 | 35 | |
| SoonerPoll.com | 5 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 1.80 | +0.10 | 33 | ✓ |
| PSB Research | 5 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 1.60 | +0.10 | 33 | |
| Mellman Group | 5 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 1.20 | +0.70 | 33 | |
| FTI Consulting | 5 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 0.00 | -0.70 | 33 | ✓ |
| WPA Intelligence | 5 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 1.70 | +0.50 | 32 | |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | 4 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 2.90 | -1.10 | 31 | ✓ |
| CBS News | 5 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 0.00 | -0.80 | 31 | ✓ |
| Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | 5 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 2.40 | -0.10 | 30 | ✓ |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 5 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 1.80 | +0.00 | 30 | ✓ |
| Pew Research Center | 5 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 2.50 | -0.80 | 29 | ✓ |
| St. Pete Polls | 5 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 2.40 | -0.70 | 29 | |
| MassINC Polling Group | 5 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 2.80 | -0.60 | 28 | ✓ |
| Normington, Petts & Associates | 5 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 0.70 | +0.90 | 28 | |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University | 5 | 538 | no outcomes | — | 2.60 | -0.80 | 27 | ✓ |
What "no outcomes" means: we cannot compute earned house effect until the operator records ground-truth outcomes for at least one topic this pollster has polled. The scoreboard becomes meaningful as outcomes accumulate.