SCOTUS
Topic scotus
Confidence: STRONG
6 of 6 tiers have recent data.
✓ polls
✓ outcomes
✓ social
✓ audience
✓ narrative
✓ forecast
⚖️ Media vs Public — INVERTED
last 30d · updated Sep 03
Mainstream media
-0.21
30 articles
vs
The public (social)
+0.39
23260 posts · L +0.39
Gap
-60 pts
The sentiment data shows an inverted gap: mainstream media coverage of SCOTUS over the last 30 days ran net negative (-0.21) while left-leaning public posts on BlueSky and Reddit ran net positive (+0.39), a 60-point divergence. This is worth watching precisely because the inversion cuts against the expected pattern — if major outlets were simply amplifying public liberal discontent with the Court, the signs would align, but they don't. What this does not show is which side has the more accurate read on the Court's actual conduct; sentiment measures emotional valence in coverage and commentary, not factual correctness. One documented complication in reading this data: the sample headlines provided are largely unrelated to SCOTUS (a dolphin stampede, a Singapore bankruptcy ruling, a Maduro drug case), which suggests the mainstream media sentiment score may be diluted or distorted by off-topic articles pulled into the sample, making the -0.21 figure less reliable as a true signal of how outlets are framing the Court specifically. The public figure is drawn entirely from left-leaning posters with no right-leaning counterpart recorded, so the +0.39 reflects one ideological slice of public sentiment, not a cross-spectrum read — a gap in the data that limits how broadly that number can be interpreted.
Sentiment −1…+1 (VADER) — not truth. A gap means coverage and public mood point different directions, not that either is right. See all gaps →
Tier 2 — Pollster readings (20)
| Date | Pollster | Sample | Margin (+R / -D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/21 - 8/23 | Morning Consult | 2200 | -11.0 |
| 8/21 - 8/24 | Reuters/Ipsos | 951 | -26.0 |
| 8/20 - 8/26 | Rasmussen Reports | 1500 | -15.0 |
| 8/21 - 8/24 | Economist/YouGov | 1379 | -17.0 |
| 8/23 - 8/27 | Rasmussen Reports | 1500 | -13.0 |
| 8/24 - 8/30 | Rasmussen Reports | 1500 | -14.0 |
| 8/25 - 8/28 | I&I/TIPP | 1461 | -14.0 |
| 8/26 - 8/28 | Quantus Insights | 1200 | -15.0 |
| 8/25 - 8/31 | Rasmussen Reports | 1500 | -15.0 |
| 8/26 - 9/1 | Rasmussen Reports | 1500 | -13.0 |
| 8/28 - 8/30 | Morning Consult | 2200 | -14.0 |
| 8/28 - 8/31 | Reuters/Ipsos | 924 | -25.0 |
| 8/28 - 8/31 | Economist/YouGov | 1437 | -22.0 |
| 8/28 - 8/30 | Harvard-Harris | 2100 | -8.0 |
| 7/22 - 9/1 | RCP Average | — | -16.7 |
| 8/21 - 8/23 | Morning Consult | 2200 | -11.0 |
| 8/21 - 8/24 | Reuters/Ipsos | 951 | -26.0 |
| 8/20 - 8/26 | Rasmussen Reports | 1500 | -15.0 |
| 8/21 - 8/24 | Economist/YouGov | 1379 | -17.0 |
| 8/23 - 8/27 | Rasmussen Reports | 1500 | -13.0 |
Tier 0 — Outcomes (0)
No outcomes recorded yet for this topic. Operator records outcomes at /admin/pollster-outcomes as elections, votes, and events resolve.
Tier 5 — Latent forecasting (the Clif-High layer)
Modal-language intensity + attention momentum + Wikipedia pageview signal. Predictive, not descriptive — what these signals suggest is coming.
Attention momentum (last 3d vs prior 3d)
-16.0%
FALLING
Modestly falling (-16.0% over 3 days).
Modal-language intensity (current day)
anger
0.0
fear
0.6
hope
2.2
dread
0.0
certainty
1.6
doubt
0.6
urgency
9.4
complacency
0.8
Hits per 1,000 words. Delta is 7d-vs-prior-7d change. Rising fear/dread/urgency + falling certainty/complacency = typical "crisis warm-up" pattern.
Wikipedia pageview signal — SCOTUS
Avg 71 views/day · 3d-vs-prior-3d momentum:
-39.8%
Pageview spikes typically precede mainstream-coverage spikes by 1-3 days.
Tier 4 — Mainstream narrative coverage
VADER sentiment over 30 recent articles from operator-curated mainstream sources. This is what the major outlets are telling readers about this topic.
Average sentiment
-0.21
VADER compound · 30 articles
Source mix
ABC News: 10 · -0.98
Bloomberg: 4 · -0.17
Politico: 7 · +0.37
The Hill: 7 · +0.28
Financial Times: 1 · -0.84
CNBC: 1 · +0.56
Recent mainstream coverage
ABC News · 2026-09-03 ·
-0.96
Bloomberg · 2026-09-03 ·
-0.74
ABC News · 2026-09-02 ·
-0.97
Politico · 2026-09-02 ·
+0.97
Bloomberg · 2026-09-02 ·
-0.86
Politico · 2026-09-02 ·
-0.99
Politico · 2026-09-02 ·
+0.75
The Hill · 2026-09-02 ·
+0.25
Tier 3 — Prediction markets (20)
Money-on-the-line probabilities. When market price diverges > 10pts from the poll average, somebody is wrong.
| Platform | Question | YES probability | Volume | Captured | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Kraken IPO by March 31, 2027? | 47% | $23 | 2026-09-03 11:06 | ↗ |
| polymarket | Kraken IPO by June 30, 2027? | 52% | $63 | 2026-09-03 11:06 | ↗ |
| polymarket | Kraken IPO by December 31, 2027? | 50% | $145 | 2026-09-03 11:06 | ↗ |
| polymarket | Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? | 0% | $545,639 | 2026-09-03 11:06 | ↗ |
| polymarket | Kraken IPO in 2025? | 0% | $494,517 | 2026-09-03 11:06 | ↗ |
| polymarket | Kraken IPO by March 31, 2027? | 47% | $23 | 2026-09-03 10:06 | ↗ |
| polymarket | Kraken IPO by December 31, 2027? | 52% | $145 | 2026-09-03 10:06 | ↗ |
| polymarket | Kraken IPO by June 30, 2027? | 52% | $63 | 2026-09-03 10:06 | ↗ |
| polymarket | Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? | 0% | $545,639 | 2026-09-03 10:06 | ↗ |
| polymarket | Kraken IPO in 2025? | 0% | $494,517 | 2026-09-03 10:06 | ↗ |
Tier 1 — Social (paired, never merged)
Sentiment (avg compound, −1 to +1) split by platform political coding. Profoundd never merges left-coded and right-coded sources into a single number.
Left-coded platforms (BlueSky, r/politics, r/news…)
+0.39
avg VADER compound · 23129 posts
Sample left-coded posts
bluesky ·
+0.80
The Jim Crow regime, the one thing you can plausibly give credit to the Supreme Court for solving, was started by Plessy. Obviously the US was a slave state prior to the Civil War, but that was aided and abetted by the Supreme Court.
link ↗
bluesky ·
+0.78
Chiles isn't breaking the law anymore though because the US Supreme Court ruled in her favor. So in Colorado, conversion therapy through psychotherapy (talk therapy) is legal.
Fin. /3
link ↗
bluesky ·
-0.48
Goddamn Republicans want to add a constitutional amendment to prevent any changes to the Supreme Court. If you had any doubts, civil war is coming.
October Surprise 10/6-8 in DC.
link ↗
bluesky ·
+0.97
breaking news, urgent now and beyond future! save our education, action now! save our healthcare of abortion, retirement age healthcare, healthcare! save our supreme court blue wave Party! @ Judiciary act, Supreme court ethic act - healthca…
link ↗
bluesky ·
-0.72
Nevada: Nevada Supreme Court tosses Black Widower's murder appeal, upholds conviction for killing sixth wife
#Nevada #Legal
link ↗
bluesky ·
+0.18
Thank you sensible people! You're saying Courts please put a stop to more stupid shit that's already unlawful as it is. And another suit, hah, when you guys have a minute, to direct the supreme court to shut up altogether until they say nic…
link ↗
Sample right-coded posts
Tier 6 — Profoundd audience signal
Your readers' signal, not American public opinion. Last 30 days.
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