SCOTUS
Topic scotus
Confidence: STRONG
6 of 6 tiers have recent data.
✓ polls
✓ outcomes
✓ social
✓ audience
✓ narrative
✓ forecast
⚖️ Media vs Public — INVERTED
last 30d · updated Oct 18
Mainstream media
-0.47
30 articles
vs
The public (social)
+0.40
31119 posts · L +0.40
Gap
-86 pts
The media-public gap on SCOTUS is inverted: mainstream outlets sampled here run net negative (-0.47) while left-leaning public posters on BlueSky and Reddit run net positive (+0.40), an 87-point spread. That divergence tells you coverage tone and public mood are pointing in opposite directions — it does not tell you which is the more accurate read of the Court's actual conduct or decisions. Worth noting: the sample headlines provided are largely off-topic (a bridal puppy collection, a flight incident, a California election story), which suggests the negative media score may be driven by ambient political framing rather than sustained critical analysis of specific SCOTUS rulings or behavior. The public figure is drawn exclusively from left-leaning posters, meaning right-leaning sentiment is unrepresented and the +0.40 cannot be generalized to the full public — it reflects one ideological slice expressing relative approval, possibly in response to specific decisions that aligned with their priors. An inverted gap of this magnitude, particularly when media negativity appears loosely tethered to the subject itself, is the kind of structural signal worth tracking over subsequent cycles to determine whether it reflects a genuine editorial posture toward the Court or noise from adjacent political coverage.
Sentiment −1…+1 (VADER) — not truth. A gap means coverage and public mood point different directions, not that either is right. See all gaps →
Tier 2 — Pollster readings (20)
| Date | Pollster | Sample | Margin (+R / -D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/4 - 10/8 | Rasmussen Reports | 1500 | -17.0 |
| 10/6 - 10/12 | Rasmussen Reports | 1500 | -17.0 |
| 10/5 - 10/11 | Rasmussen Reports | 1500 | -17.0 |
| 10/5 - 10/7 | Center Square/NPI** | 2527 | -12.0 |
| 10/5 - 10/13 | RMG Research | 2000 | -17.0 |
| 10/7 - 10/13 | Rasmussen Reports | 1500 | -15.0 |
| 10/8 - 10/12 | AP/NORC** | 925 | -28.0 |
| 10/9 - 10/11 | Morning Consult | 2204 | -14.0 |
| 10/8 - 10/14 | Rasmussen Reports | 1500 | -13.0 |
| 10/9 - 10/12 | FOX News | 1202 | -28.0 |
| 10/10 - 10/12 | Economist/YouGov | 1184 | -21.0 |
| 10/11 - 10/15 | Rasmussen Reports | 1500 | -13.0 |
| 10/9 - 10/13 | ABC/Wash Post/Ipsos | 2032 | -24.0 |
| 9/28 - 10/12 | NBC News Decision Desk | 18061 | -22.0 |
| 9/26 - 10/15 | RCP Average | — | -20.5 |
| 10/4 - 10/8 | Rasmussen Reports | 1500 | -17.0 |
| 10/6 - 10/12 | Rasmussen Reports | 1500 | -17.0 |
| 10/5 - 10/11 | Rasmussen Reports | 1500 | -17.0 |
| 10/5 - 10/7 | Center Square/NPI** | 2527 | -12.0 |
| 10/5 - 10/13 | RMG Research | 2000 | -17.0 |
Tier 0 — Outcomes (0)
No outcomes recorded yet for this topic. Operator records outcomes at /admin/pollster-outcomes as elections, votes, and events resolve.
Tier 5 — Latent forecasting (the Clif-High layer)
Modal-language intensity + attention momentum + Wikipedia pageview signal. Predictive, not descriptive — what these signals suggest is coming.
Attention momentum (last 3d vs prior 3d)
-43.3%
FALLING
Cooling sharply (-43.3% vs prior 3 days). Topic likely past its peak.
Modal-language intensity (current day)
anger
0.0
fear
0.8
hope
3.0
dread
0.0
certainty
1.6
doubt
0.4
urgency
11.2
complacency
0.4
Hits per 1,000 words. Delta is 7d-vs-prior-7d change. Rising fear/dread/urgency + falling certainty/complacency = typical "crisis warm-up" pattern.
Wikipedia pageview signal — SCOTUS
Avg 40 views/day · 3d-vs-prior-3d momentum:
+0.0%
Pageview spikes typically precede mainstream-coverage spikes by 1-3 days.
Tier 4 — Mainstream narrative coverage
VADER sentiment over 30 recent articles from operator-curated mainstream sources. This is what the major outlets are telling readers about this topic.
Average sentiment
-0.46
VADER compound · 30 articles
Source mix
Financial Times: 2 · +0.00
CNBC: 2 · +0.29
ABC News: 17 · -0.73
The Hill: 6 · -0.41
Bloomberg: 3 · +0.17
Recent mainstream coverage
Financial Times · 2026-10-18 ·
+0.00
CNBC · 2026-10-18 ·
-0.10
ABC News · 2026-10-17 ·
-0.99
ABC News · 2026-10-17 ·
-0.88
The Hill · 2026-10-17 ·
+0.94
ABC News · 2026-10-17 ·
-0.96
ABC News · 2026-10-17 ·
-0.98
Bloomberg · 2026-10-17 ·
-0.68
Tier 3 — Prediction markets (20)
Money-on-the-line probabilities. When market price diverges > 10pts from the poll average, somebody is wrong.
| Platform | Question | YES probability | Volume | Captured | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Kraken IPO by March 31, 2027? | 10% | $2,300 | 2026-10-19 03:15 | ↗ |
| polymarket | Kraken IPO by June 30, 2027? | 22% | $1,404 | 2026-10-19 03:15 | ↗ |
| polymarket | Kraken IPO by December 31, 2027? | 62% | $1,493 | 2026-10-19 03:15 | ↗ |
| polymarket | Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? | 0% | $545,639 | 2026-10-19 03:15 | ↗ |
| polymarket | Kraken IPO in 2025? | 0% | $494,517 | 2026-10-19 03:15 | ↗ |
| polymarket | Kraken IPO by March 31, 2027? | 10% | $2,300 | 2026-10-19 02:15 | ↗ |
| polymarket | Kraken IPO by December 31, 2027? | 62% | $1,493 | 2026-10-19 02:15 | ↗ |
| polymarket | Kraken IPO by June 30, 2027? | 22% | $1,404 | 2026-10-19 02:15 | ↗ |
| polymarket | Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? | 0% | $545,639 | 2026-10-19 02:15 | ↗ |
| polymarket | Kraken IPO in 2025? | 0% | $494,517 | 2026-10-19 02:15 | ↗ |
Tier 1 — Social (paired, never merged)
Sentiment (avg compound, −1 to +1) split by platform political coding. Profoundd never merges left-coded and right-coded sources into a single number.
Left-coded platforms (BlueSky, r/politics, r/news…)
+0.40
avg VADER compound · 31748 posts
Sample left-coded posts
bluesky ·
-0.83
Everybody’s talking about France. Meanwhile, Albania is protesting too. Unemployment. Education. Economic pressure. Frustration with the government. And now the unrest has escalated to the point that the Supreme Court was set on fire. This …
link ↗
bluesky ·
+0.86
4. In 2017, the Supreme Court ruled that ministers could not trigger Article 50 without an Act of Parliament.
That was a remarkable finding: the Government's original proposed route to Brexit was unlawful.
link ↗
bluesky ·
+0.70
At least in Georgia, the state bar is overseen by the state Supreme Court.
But, to answer your question: yes.
link ↗
bluesky ·
-0.44
Being on private islands with underage folks for the sake of sex, fascism, sexism, bribery, crytocurrency, this current Supreme Court, gun violence, the confederacy, nazism…
link ↗
Sample right-coded posts
Tier 6 — Profoundd audience signal
Your readers' signal, not American public opinion. Last 30 days.
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