Chief Economists Outlook January 2026

Endnotes 1. Bank for International Settlements (BIS). (2025). BIS Quarterly Review International banking and financial market developments. https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2512.pdf. 2. Ibid. 3. Lex. (2025, 3 December). Bitcoin faithful prepare for a bitter winter. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/ c235d775-cb39-475f-b11c-e5883d59ff56; Hook, L. and Arnold, M. (2025, 8 December). Retail investors help drive gold and US stocks to bubble territory, BIS warns. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/8e5a4fcf-dc99-4014- 853ab2585e2396b9. 4. Bank for International Settlements (BIS). (2025). BIS Quarterly Review International banking and financial market developments. https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2512.pdf. 5. Martin, K. (2025, 6 December). Mega is trumping Maga in stocks. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/ content/6a0859c0-91e1-4c3d-bd38-741a34ffe8da. 6. Temaj, K. and Khadan, J. (2025). When Uncertainty Rises, Gold Rallies: Precious Metals Surge to Record Highs amid Global Tensions. World Bank. https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/opendata/when-uncertainty-rises--gold-rallies. 7. Patterson, R. (2025, 23 October). Gold as an equity hedge requires patience. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/ef885f08-ab95-4190-8d48-23b8068b9da7. 8. Asgari, N., Shah, J. R., and Steer, G. (2025, 5 December). Crypto’s rocky year. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/728a469e-34f7-433d-90a5-631b8c10aa51. 9. Juselius, M., Wooldridge, P ., and Xia, D. (2025, 13 October). Financial channel implications of a weaker dollar for emerging market economies. Bank for International Settlements (BIS). https://www.bis.org/publ/bisbull114.htm. 10. Bank for International Settlements (BIS). (2025). BIS Quarterly Review International banking and financial market developments. https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2512.pdf. 11. Storbeck, O. (2025, 26 November). ‘Fomo’ is driving ‘stretched’ US tech valuations, ECB warns. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/82100215-18d0-4850-8dcd-d9745ad342d0; European Central Bank (ECB). (2025). Financial Stability Review. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/financial-stability-publications/fsr/html/index.en.html . 12. International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2025). Global Financial Stability Report, October 2025: Shifting Ground beneath the Calm. https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr/issues/2025/10/14/global-financial-stability-report-october-2025; Arnold, M. and Jones, C. (2025, 8 October). IMF and BoE warn AI boom risks ‘abrupt’ stock market correction. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/fe474cff-564c-41d2-aaf7-313636a83e5b. 13. Bradshaw, T. and Acton, M. (2025, 20 November). Nvidia shrugs off ‘AI bubble’ anxiety with bumper chip demand. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/24c50fe0-3ea4-4347-851c-8635d6ef02c1. 14. Wigglesworth, R. (2025, 11 December). Cisco finally did it. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/b27ae706-6244- 4337-81cd-5204bd2b9a00. 15. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). (2025). OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2025 Issue 2. https://doi.org/10.1787/9f653ca1-en; International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2025). World Economic Outlook: Global Economy in Flux, Prospects Remain Dim. https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2025/10/14/world-economic- outlook-october-2025. 16. The Economist. (2025, 13 November). How markets could topple the global economy. The Economist. https://www.economist.com/leaders/2025/11/13/how-markets-could-topple-the-global-economy. 17. Gopinath, G. (2025, 15 October). Gita Gopinath on the crash that could torch $35trn of wealth. The Economist. https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2025/10/15/gita-gopinath-on-the-crash-that-could-torch-35trn-of-wealth. 18. UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD). (2025). A World of Debt Report. https://unctad.org/publication/world-of-debt; International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2025). Fiscal Monitor October 2025: Spending Smarter: How Efficient and Well- Allocated Public Spending Can Boost Economic Growth. https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm/issues/2025/10/07/ fiscal-monitor-october-2025. 19. UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD). (2025). A World of Debt Report. https://unctad.org/publication/world-of-debt. 20. International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2025). Global Financial Stability Report, October 2025: Shifting Ground beneath the Calm. https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr/issues/2025/10/14/global-financial-stability-report-october-2025. 21. Smith, I., Herbert, E., and Duguid, K. (2025, 9 November). Dollar volatility tumbles as currency markets move past ‘Trump shock’. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/c81711f8-c5df-464b-95cc-3e66f86ee989. 22. Cotterill, J., Nugent, C., and Duguid, K. (2025, 20 October). Argentine peso weakens to fresh low despite US interventions. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/815ef487-0d0e-430c-b140-9bc39dbd1a53. 23. Smith, R. et al. (2025, 29 September). First Brands files for bankruptcy, threatening multibillion-dollar losses. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/095a60a4-9bde-4f40-bb20-95c02c95727b. 24. Salam, N. (2025, 10 December). Lebanon’s national reset is working — but we need help. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/a9a64c72-5f77-4e26-b633-7b8ce785aabd. Chief Economists’ Outlook January 29