Chief Economists Outlook January 2026

25. The Economist. (2025, 16 October). The rich world faces a painful bout of inflation. The Economist. https://www.economist.com/leaders/2025/10/16/the-rich-world-faces-a-painful-bout-of-inflation. 26. Curtice, R. (2025, 29 November). This Budget’s tax decisions will haunt the government. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/f658b3e8-2b47-45db-a85b-f5d8f0157985. 27. International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2025). Fiscal Monitor October 2025: Spending Smarter: How Efficient and Well- Allocated Public Spending Can Boost Economic Growth. https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm/issues/2025/10/07/ fiscal-monitor-october-2025. 28. The Economist. (2025, 16 October). The rich world faces a painful bout of inflation. The Economist. https://www.economist.com/leaders/2025/10/16/the-rich-world-faces-a-painful-bout-of-inflation. 29. International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2025). Fiscal Monitor October 2025: Spending Smarter: How Efficient and Well- Allocated Public Spending Can Boost Economic Growth. https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm/issues/2025/10/07/ fiscal-monitor-october-2025. 30. Rosner-Uddin, R. et al. (2025, 8 December). The power crunch threatening America’s AI ambitions. Financial Times. https://ig.ft.com/ai-power/. 31. UN News. (2025). Military spending worldwide hits record $2.7 trillion. https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/09/1165809. 32. World Health Organization (WHO). (2025). Ageing and health. https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/ageing- and-health. 33. World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO). (2025). Global Innovation Index 2025. https://www.wipo.int/web- publications/global-innovation-index-2025/en/index.html. 34. Nobuyuki, T. et al. (2024). Education Finance Watch 2024 (English). World Bank Group. https://documents.worldbank.org/ en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/099102824144527868. 35. Plimmer, G. and Pickard, J. (2025, 30 March). England’s road building and repair budget cut by 5%. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/05002b9c-6e42-4ad6-bc2a-fd7724910a51. 36. Board, T. E. (2025, 25 November). A COP of clumsy compromises. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/7e550cd0-4127-48bb-a77e-e4190ea223b6. 37. The White House. (2025, 1 November). Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Strikes Deal on Economic and Trade Relations with China. The White House. https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/11/fact-sheet-president-donald-j- trump-strikes-deal-on-economic-and-trade-relations-with-china/. 38. Brown, C.P . (2025). US-China Trade War Tariffs: An Up-to-Date Chart. Peterson Institute for International Economics. https://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/2019/us-china-trade-war-tariffs-date-chart. 39. Acton, M. (2026, 6 January). Nvidia steps up H200 chip production for Chinese market, Huang says. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/ae4f28a0-39f9-48e6-bdf4-09321b03c236. 40. Ding, W. and Leahy, J. (2025, 24 November). China’s Li Qiang pushes developing country alliance on rare earths. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/4c19bbf7-2459-4395-853d-993dee253d5b. 41. Davies, C. (2025, 29 October). US and South Korea seal trade deal. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/ content/59851cb3-c983-4d81-a1fc-a9c0189304cf; Sevastopulo, D., Keohane, D., and Lewis, L. (2025, 28 October). Donald Trump and Sanae Takaichi promise ‘golden age’ for US-Japan alliance. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/ content/84e962b4-c8b1-43b6-9fc1-c040808fd703; United States Trade Representative. (2025, 26 October). Ambassador Greer Issues Statement on U.S. Trade Deals with Southeast Asian Countries [Press release]. https://ustr. gov/about/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2025/october/ambassador-greer-issues-statement-us-trade-deals- southeast-asian-countries; Hancock, A. and Bounds, A. (2025, 19 November). EU plans minerals stockpile centre to stop US snapping up supplies. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/70964f99-54e9-494c-861d-139259d33893. 42. Cash, J. (2025, 8 December). China trade surplus tops $1 trillion for first time on non-US growth. Reuters Media. https:// www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinas-november-exports-top-expectations-imports-underperform-2025-12-08/. 43. Ibid. 44. Caldara, D. et al. (2020). The economic effects of trade policy uncertainty. Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 109, pp. 39–59. Data downloaded from https://www.matteoiacoviello.com/tpu.htm on 5 January 2026. 45. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). (2025). Global Trade Update: Global trade poised for a record-breaking 2025 as flows expected to surge past $35 trillion. https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/ ditcinf2025d10_en.pdf. 46. Nangle, T. (2026, 8 January). Putting the US AI boom(let) in perspective. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/ content/918fbc46-56a9-4225-b2cd-77fb4a532218. 47. Aldasoro, I., Doerr, S., and Rees, D. (2026, 7 January). Financing the AI boom: from cash flows to debt. Bank for International Settlements (BIS). https://www.bis.org/publ/bisbull120.htm. 48. The Economist. (2025, 30 October). Led by Nvidia, the AI industry has plans to reindustrialise America. The Economist. https://www.economist.com/united-states/2025/10/30/led-by-nvidia-the-ai-industry-has-plans-to-reindustrialise-america; Reuters. (2025, 1 December). US manufacturing stuck in doldrums as tariff headwinds persist. https://www.reuters.com/ world/us/us-manufacturing-slump-deepens-november-2025-12-01/; Hagler, R. and Patki, D. (2025). Why Has Consumer Spending Remained So Resilient? Evidence from Credit Card Data. Bank of Boston, Federal Reserve. https://www. bostonfed.org/publications/current-policy-perspectives/2025/why-has-consumer-spending-remained-resilient.aspx. Chief Economists’ Outlook January 30