Chief Economists Outlook January 2026

49. The Economist. (2025, 27 November). American consumers are miserable. But they keep spending. The Economist. https://www.economist.com/business/2025/11/27/american-consumers-are-miserable-but-they-keep-spending; University of Michigan. (2025). Surveys of Consumers. https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/. 50. University of Michigan. (2025). Surveys of Consumers. https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/. 51. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (2025, 10 December). Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement [Press release]. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20251210a.htm. 52. International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2025). Fiscal Monitor October 2025: Spending Smarter: How Efficient and Well- Allocated Public Spending Can Boost Economic Growth. https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm/issues/2025/10/07/ fiscal-monitor-october-2025. 53. Ho-him, C. (2025, 8 December). China’s 2025 trade surplus tops $1 trillion on surging exports. AP News. https://apnews.com/article/china-trade-tariffs-trump-exports-953ab5e9056cf7b21c00c54bec1d79dd. 54. Lee, K. (2025, 9 December). China’s open-source AI is a national advantage. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/b1f92b0e-d6ef-4c95-b51e-7bcf90c8a65f. 55. National Bureau of Statistics China. (2025). CPI November 2025. https://english.www.gov.cn/archive/ statistics/202512/10/content_WS69391069c6d00ca5f9a08047.html. Reuters. (2025, 10 December). China’s deflationary strains persist even as consumer inflation hits 21-month high. Reuters Media. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/ chinas-consumer-inflation-quickens-november-producer-deflation-persists-2025-12-10/. 56. Gao, L. and Woo, R. (2025, 5 December). China home prices to fall 3.7% this year, extending declines into 2026: Reuters poll. Reuters Media. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-home-prices-fall-37-this-year-extending-declines- into-2026-2025-12-05/. 57. Hale, T., Ko, H., and Leahy, J. (2025, 15 December). China investment falls for third straight month in blow to economy. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/2f3d6fbd-22aa-4ca7-9fbe-e6e2a45ced09; International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2025). IMF Staff Completes 2025 Article IV Mission to the People’s Republic of China. https://www.imf.org/en/news/ articles/2025/12/10/pr-25415-china-imf-staff-completes-2025-article-iv-mission-to-the-peoples-republic-of-china. 58. Reuters. (2025, 3 December). China likely to chase 5% GDP growth in 2026 in bid to end deflation. Reuters Media. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-likely-chase-5-gdp-growth-2026-bid-end-deflation-2025-12-03/. 59. European Commission. (2025). Autumn 2025 Economic Forecast. European Commission. https://economy-finance. ec.europa.eu/economic-forecast-and-surveys/economic-forecasts/autumn-2025-economic-forecast-shows-continued- growth-despite-challenging-environment_en. 60. Williams, A. and Bounds, A. (2025, 16 December). Washington threatens European groups over EU’s treatment of US tech giants. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/001de711-619f-4dbf-b77a-40c53287a8a4; Macron, E. (2025, 16 December). We urgently need to rebalance EU-China relations. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/c8fdf1b0- 7330-491e-a8b4-f4b29f6a3cd0; Hale, T. and Bounds, A. (2025, 22 December). China hits EU dairy industry with levies of up to 42.7%. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/02f13379-a996-4849-a597-7be95c4beadd. 61. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). (2025). Global Trade Update: Global trade poised for a record-breaking 2025 as flows expected to surge past $35 trillion. https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/ ditcinf2025d10_en.pdf. 62. Tamma, P . et al. (2025, 17 December). Lula threatens to walk away from EU-Mercosur trade deal. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/f1476035-4ffb-4a30-90a2-058b44553095. 63. RWI Essen. (2025). Konjunktur: RWI senkt Wachstumsprognose – finanzpolitische Impulse bleiben weiter aus. https://www. rwi-essen.de/presse/wissenschaftskommunikation/pressemitteilungen/detail/konjunktur-rwi-senkt-wachstumsprognose- finanzpolitische-impulse-bleiben-weiter-aus; Johnston, I. (2025, 9 December). French welfare budget passes in win for premier Lecornu. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/42cfc054-2e88-4035-baf5-118b671a0fc6. 64. Sandbu, M. (2025, 7 December). The EU stumbles to an imperfect solution for funding Ukraine. Financial Times. https:// www.ft.com/content/fb016c02-dfd5-4967-8f52-5b740411d577; Foy, H. et al. (2025, 19 December). EU agrees €90bn loan to Ukraine after frozen Russian asset plan fails. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/e5691048-696b-44cd- 8a0a-50b917e3d62a. 65. Martin, K. (2025, 6December). Mega is trumping Maga in stocks. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/6a0859c0- 91e1-4c3d-bd38-741a34ffe8da. 66. European Central Bank (ECB). (2025, 18 December). Monetary policy decisions. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/ date/2025/html/ecb.mp251218~58b0e415a6.en.html. 67. World Bank. (2025). Jobs: East Asia and Pacific (EAP) Economic Update October 2025. https://www.worldbank.org/en/ publication/east-asia-and-pacific-economic-update. 68. Walker, O. (2025, 7 December). US tariffs prompt surge in Chinese exports to south-east Asia. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/16d0336b-d855-42ae-b0a7-d509d21cec9b. 69. Lewis, L. (2025, 19 December). Japan raises interest rates to highest level in 30 years. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/cbaaff02-9c62-4f5f-8e02-d38798df4196. 70. Lewis, L. (2025, 21 November). Sanae Takaichi unveils $135bn stimulus to spur Japan growth. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/a579a3a7-d08e-46a2-9ff5-5b5e2ed34e80. 71. Schipani, A., Kaushik, K., and Kay, C. (2025, 17 December). India’s central bank governor signals rates to stay low for ‘long period’. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/55cd3608-7f2a-485a-be17-37735947d619. Chief Economists’ Outlook January 31