35Chief Economists Outlook References Acemoglu, D. (2025): The simple macroeconomics of AI. Economic Policy, 40 (121), pp. 13-58. https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiae042. Ahir, H., Bloom, N. & Furceri, D. (2020). 60 Years of Uncertainty. International Monetary Fund. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2020/03/imf-launches- world-uncertainty-index-wui-furceri. Ahir, H., Bloom, N., & Furceri, D. (2025). World Uncertainty Index. https://worlduncertaintyindex.com/. Allen, G.C. (2025): DeepSeek, Huawei, Export Controls, and the Future of the U.S.-China AI Race. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). https://www.csis.org/ analysis/deepseek-huawei-export-controls-and-future-us-china-ai-race. Bajpaee, C. (2025). After India’s missile strikes on Pakistan, the risk of accidental escalation is high. Chatham House. https://www.chathamhouse.org/2025/05/after-indias- missile-strikes-pakistan-risk-accidental-escalation-high. Baker, S.R., Bloom, N. & Davis, S.J .(2025). Economic Policy Uncertainty Index. Policy Uncertainty. https://www.policyuncertainty.com/index.html. Beattie, A. (2025, 10 March). Donald Trump’s coercion descends into chaos. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/64937cfe-bb62-4a0a-990f-503344e9c58a. Bradsher, K. (2025, 13 April). China Halts Critical Rare Earth Exports as Trade War Intensifies. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/13/business/ china-rare-earths-exports.html. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2025a). Consumer Price Index. https://www.bls.gov/cpi/. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2025b). Employment Situation Summary April 2025. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm. Caldara, D., Iacoviello, M., Molligo, P ., Prestipino, A. & Raffo, A. (2020). The economic effects of trade policy uncertainty. Journal of Monetary Economics 109, pp. 38-59. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304393219302004. Data downloaded from https://www.matteoiacoviello.com/tpu.htm on 11 May 2025.

Chief Economists Outlook May 2025