Four Futures for Jobs in the New Economy AI and Talent in 2030 2025

Economic data trajectory for the four scenarios by 2030 TABLE 1 Indicator Baseline Scenario 1 Supercharged ProgressScenario 2 The Age of DisplacementScenario 3 Co-Pilot EconomyScenario 4 Stalled Progress AI capability, top five models average MMMU184.2 AI literacy and adjacent skills N/A2 Labour productivity growth, % annual 1.5% Unemployment rate, % 5% Consumer confidence index 48.8 Scaling of agentic AI, % of businesses 23% Wage polarization, D9/D1 earners ratio316.8 S&P 500 operating margin, % quarterly 12.6% 1 Massive multi-discipline multimodal understanding (MMMU) 2 No authoritative or standardized global measure of “AI literacy and adjacent skills” currently exists. 3 Ratio between the total hourly earnings of the top 10% and the bottom 10% of the world’s wage earners. Note: The arrows denote a directional change in a given scenario characteristic. All values are at the global level unless specified otherwise. The analysis is based on scenario narratives and extrapolations from similar existing research. The directionality is illustrative and for scenario-building purposes only. Sources: Xiang, Y. et al. (2025); International Labour Organization (ILO). (2020–2025 annualized); International Labour Organization (ILO). (2025); Ipsos. (2025); McKinsey. (2025); International Labour Organization (ILO). (2025); S&P . (2025 average). AI capability, top five models average MMMU Baseline: 84.2 (Xiang, Y. et al., 2025) AI literacy and adjacent skills Baseline: N/A1 Labour productivity growth, % annual Baseline: 1.5% (International Labour Organization, 2020–2025 annualized) Unemployment rate, % Baseline: 5% (International Labour Organization, 2025) Consumer confidence index Baseline: 48.8 (Ipsos, 2025) Scaling of agentic AI, % of businesses Baseline: 23% (McKinsey, 2025) Wage polarization, D9/D1 earners ratio Baseline: 16.8 (International Labour Organization, 2025) S&P 500 operating margin, % quarterly Baseline: 12.6% (S&P , 2025 average) Exponential AI advancement, widespread workforce readinessExponential AI breakthroughs reshape industries, business models and workflows. Productivity soars and innovation flourishes. Widespread AI readiness allows people to harness the “agentic leap”, adapt to AI- centric economies and partially contain displacement. Many jobs have disappeared, but new occupations emerge and scale fast, in part with humans directing portfolios of capable machines and becoming agent orchestrators. Social safety nets, ethics and governance frameworks struggle to keep up with the pace and scale of change.Scenario 1: Supercharged Progress 1 No authoritative or standardized global measure of “AI literacy and adjacent skills” currently exists. Notes: The arrows denote a directional change in a given scenario characteristic. All values are at the global level, unless specified otherwise. The analysis is based on scenario narratives and extrapolations from similar existing research. The directionality is illustrative and for scenario-building purposes only.2.2 Scenarios in-depth Four Futures for Jobs in the New Economy: AI and Talent in 2030 8