Foreword Forecasting the geopolitical events shaping tomorrow’s world is often likened to predicting the weather: sudden, unpredictable and increasingly disruptive. Military coups, government collapses and supply chain disruptions can emerge with little warning, leaving just days or weeks to react. In an era of rising economic nationalism and intensifying rivalries, business leaders with extensive cross-border operations must develop sharper agility and foresight. Their ability to make informed decisions in this volatile environment hinges on the strength of their so-called geopolitical radar – their capacity to effectively track and proactively assess these shifting dynamics. This requires a fundamental shift in mindset from relying on backward-looking, experience-driven assessments of geopolitical risks to embracing a more forward-looking tracking of geopolitical dynamics, combined with rigorous scenario planning. With geopolitics playing an increasingly critical role in long-term business success, companies must invest in the necessary capabilities to strengthen their radar. This report is the result of a collaboration between IMD, Boston Consulting Group and the World Economic Forum. Its conclusions are based on insights from 25 interviews with representatives from the Forum’s corporate partners. It is the second in a three-part series designed to help public and private sector stakeholders better understand, respond to and leverage the causes and effects of disruptions, perturbations and reconfigurations that have beset the global trading system in recent years. The first report focused on the costs of deglobalization and aspects of cross-border corporate footprints and operations. The third report will examine how firms are building their geopolitical muscle, including which internal structures they are adapting, considering or implementing to better respond to these disruptions, either by mitigating the risks they present or leveraging the opportunities they create. We hope the insights and recommendations in these papers will help business leaders and policy-makers to better navigate the uncertainty and complexity of a new era of geopolitical rivalry and strategic competition. As the rules-based order that has underpinned global stability for the past 70 years faces unprecedented challenges, strengthening foresight and adaptability has never been more critical.David Bach President and Nestlé Professor of Strategy and Political Economy, International Institute for Management Development (IMD) Nikolaus Lang Managing Director and Senior Partner; Global Leader, BCG Henderson Institute; Chair, BCG Center for Geopolitics, Boston Consulting GroupMirek Dusek Managing Director, World Economic ForumFrom Blind Spots to Insights: Enhancing Geopolitical Radar to Guide Global BusinessJanuary 2025 From Blind Spots to Insights: Enhancing Geopolitical Radar to Guide Global Business 3

From Blind Spots to Insights 2025