Fuelling the Future 2026

42. International Energy Agency (IEA). (2015). Storing CO 2 through Enhanced Oil Recovery. https://www.iea.org/reports/ storing-co 2-through-enhanced-oil-recovery. 43. Lower range: HEFA/HVO in China, with sunflower seed oil. Higher range: HEFA/HVO in Europe with UCO. 44. Bain & Company analysis using proprietary capex/opex forecasts supplemented by 2024 industry interviews and feedstock forecasts from: Euromonitor International. (n.d.). Forecasting. https://www.euromonitor.com/who-we-are/ research-methods/forecasting. 45. Bain & Company analysis using: – World Bank Group (2025). World Bank Commodities Price Data (The Pink Sheet). https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/ doc/18675f1d1639c7a34d463f59263ba0a2-0050012025/world-bank-commodities-price-data-the-pink-sheet. – Energy Information Administration (EIA), US Government. (2025). Petroleum and Other Liquids. https://www.eia.gov/ dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EER_EPMRU_PF4_RGC_DPG&f=M. – European Commission. (2025). Weekly Oil Bulletin. https://energy.ec.europa.eu/data-and-analysis/weekly-oil-bulletin_en. 46. International Air Transport Association (IATA). (2024). Sustainable Aviation Fuels Pathways and Product Slate. https:// www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-reports/sustainable-aviation-fuels-pathways-and-product-slate/. 47. Levelized production cost (LPC) is a metric that represents the average cost per unit of output over a project’s entire lifetime, calculated by dividing the total lifetime costs by the total lifetime production. It is used to compare different production technologies, by aggregating initial investment, operating costs and fuel expenses into a single, comparable unit cost. 48. Bain & Company analysis using: – US Department of Energy. (2019). GREET: The Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions and Energy Use in Transportation Model. https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/articles/greet-greenhouse-gases-regulated-emissions- and-energy-use-transportation. – International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). (2025). CORSIA Default Life Cycle Emissions Values for CORSIA Eligible Fuels. https://www.icao.int/sites/default/files/environmental-protection/CORSIA/Documents/CORSIA%20 Eligible%20Fuels/ICAO-document-06-Default-Life-Cycle-Emissions-June-2025.pdf . – International Energy Agency (IEA). (2025). Delivering Sustainable Fuels: Pathways to 2035. https://www.iea.org/ reports/delivering-sustainable-fuels. 49. Sources: – US Department of Energy (2025). GREET: The Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation Model. https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/articles/greet-greenhouse-gases-regulated-emissions- and-energy-use-transportation. – International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). (2025). CORSIA Default Life Cycle Emissions Values for CORSIA Eligible Fuels. https://www.icao.int/sites/default/files/environmental-protection/CORSIA/Documents/CORSIA%20 Eligible%20Fuels/ICAO-document-06-Default-Life-Cycle-Emissions-June-2025.pdf . – International Energy Agency (IEA). (2025). Delivering Sustainable Fuels: Pathways to 2035. https://www.iea.org/ reports/delivering-sustainable-fuels. – California Air Resources Board (CARB). (n.d.). LCFS Pathway Certified Carbon Intensities. https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/ resources/documents/lcfs-pathway-certified-carbon-intensities. 50. International Energy Agency (IEA). (2024). Towards Common Criteria for Sustainable Fuels. https://www.iea.org/reports/ towards-common-criteria-for-sustainable-fuels. 51. Bain & Company analysis using: – Transport & Environment. (2024). UCO (Unknown Cooking Oil): High hopes on limited and suspicious materials. https://www.transportenvironment.org/articles/uco-unknown-cooking-oil-high-hopes-on-limited-and-suspicious- materials. – International Energy Agency (IEA). (2022). Renewables 2022. https://www.iea.org/reports/renewables-2022. 52. Bain & Company analysis, forecasting likely availability for biofuel production after subtracting demand from other applications and conversion losses. 53. A potential future surplus of bioethanol as a result of declining gasoline demand. 54. International Energy Agency (IEA). (2025). World Energy Investment 2025. https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy- investment-2025. 55. Forecast based on announced pledges scenario (APS) in: International Energy Agency (IEA). (2024). World Energy Investment 2024. https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-investment-2024. 56. Bain & Company analysis using: – GlobalData. (2025). Renewable Refineries Capacity and Capital Expenditure Outlook by Region, Countries, Companies, Projects and Forecast to 2030. https://www.globaldata.com/store/report/renewable-refineries-new-build- and-expansion-projects-market-analysis/. – GlobalData. (2025). Hydrogen Transport Networks – Low-carbon Hydrogen Market, Pipelines, Key Projects and Policies. https://www.globaldata.com/store/report/hydrogen-transport-networks-market-analysis/. Fuelling the Future: How Business, Finance and Policy can Accelerate the Clean Fuels Market 46