Endnotes 1. United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). (2025). Global Trends. https://www.unhcr.org/global-trends. 2. Fernández-Villaverde, et al. (2025, 4 February). Are We Fragmented Yet? Measuring Geopolitical Fragmentation and Its Causal Effects; United Nations. (2025, 25 April). New UN report warns of global social crisis driven by insecurity, inequality, and distrust. https://www.un.org/en/desa/new-un-report-warns-global-social-crisis-driven-insecurity-inequality-and-distrust; United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHRC). (2025). Global Trends. https://www.unhcr.org/global-trends. 3. See here for minilateralism: Sarah Teo, Lowy Institute. (2024, December 27). The rise and endurance of minilaterals in the Indo-Pacific. https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/rise-endurance-minilaterals-indo-pacific; Mladenov, N. (2023, 14 April). Minilateralism: A concept for a changing world order. The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. https://www. washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/minilateralism-concept-changing-world-order . 4. Plurilateralism is sometimes used interchangeably with minilateralism, but the two can also be used in slightly different contexts. Minilateralism often refers to a few countries working together. Plurilateralism often refers to a larger number, but not all, working together. 5. Aiyar, S. & Ilyina, A. (2023, 8 February). Charting Globalization’s Turn to Slowbalization After Global Financial Crisis. International Monetary Fund. https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2023/02/08/charting-globalizations-turn-to- slowbalization-after-global-financial-crisis. 6. Banga, A. (2024, 25 October). Remarks by World Bank Group President Ajay Banga at the 2024 Annual Meetings Plenary. World Bank Group. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/speech/2024/10/25/remarks-by-world-bank-group-president- ajay-banga-at-the-2024-annual-meetings-plenary; United Nations. (2025, 24 October). Reform ‘Imperative’, Secretary- General Tells Security Council, Calling for Expansion of Membership, Renewed Commitment to ‘We the People’ [Press release]. https://press.un.org/en/2025/sc16201.doc.htm; Reuters. (2025, 28 October). WTO Chief Calls for Reform of Consensus Rule Amid Trade Disruption. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/wto-chief-calls-reform-consensus-rule- amid-trade-disruption-2025-10-28/. 7. Australian Government Department of Industry, Science and Resources. (2025, 21 October). United States-Australia Framework for Securing of Supply in the Mining and Processing of Critical Minerals and Rare Earths. https://www.industry. gov.au/publications/united-states-australia-framework-securing-supply-mining-and-processing-critical-minerals-and-rare- earths. 8. United Kingdom. (2025, 18 September). Memorandum of Understanding Between the Government of the United States of America and the Government of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland [Press release]. https://www. gov.uk/government/news/memorandum-of-understanding-between-the-government-of-the-united-states-of-america- and-the-government-of-the-united-kingdom-of-great-britain-and-north; United States Trade Representative. (2024, 8 April). U.S.-EU Joint Statement of the Trade and Technology Council [Press release]. https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy- offices/press-office/press-releases/2024/april/us-eu-joint-statement-trade-and-technology-council; The White House. (2024, 17 June). Joint Fact Sheet: The United States and India Continue to Chart an Ambitious Course for the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology [Press release]. https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefing-room/statements- releases/2024/06/17/joint-fact-sheet-the-united-states-and-india-continue-to-chart-an-ambitious-course-for-the-initiative- on-critical-and-emerging-technology/; United States Department of Commerce. (2025, 15 May). UAE/US Framework on Advanced Technology Cooperation [Press release]. https://www.commerce.gov/news/press-releases/2025/05/uae/ us-framework-advanced-technology-cooperation; The White House. (2024, 10 April). United States–Japan Joint Leaders’ Statement [Press release]. https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/04/10/united- states-japan-joint-leaders-statement/. 9. Including through the ASEAN Community Vision 2025, the Initiative for ASEAN Integration and the Master Plan on ASEAN Connectivity (MPAC) 2025, all of which had target dates in 2025. 10. African Union (AU). (2025). African Medicines Agency (AMA) to Hold Second Ordinary Session of the Conference of State Parties in Kigali. https://au.int/en/newsevents/20250602/african-medicines-agency-ama-hold-second-ordinary-session- conference-state; Forum for Agricultural Research in Africa (FARA). (2014). The Accra Consensus. https://library.faraafrica. org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/The-Accra-Consensus.pdf; Mikey Live. (2025, 27 October). OECS Member States To Benefit From Lower Insulin Prices Following Grenada Health Meetings. https://www.mikeylive.com/featured/oecs-member- states-to-benefit-from-lower-insulin-prices-following-grenada-health-meetings/. 11. Guterres, A. (2025, 23 Sept). Secretary-General’s address to the Opening of the General Debate of the 80th Session of the General Assembly. https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/statements/2025-09-23/secretary-generals-address- the-opening-of-the-general-debate-of-the-80th-session-of-the-general-assembly-trilingual-delivered-scroll-down-for- all-english-and-all. 12. Seong, J., et al. (2025, 27 January). Geopolitics and the Geometry of Global Trade: 2025 Update. McKinsey Global Institute. https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/our-research/geopolitics-and-the-geometry-of-global-trade-2025-update. 13. Concentration is calculated as the global share of import value in products deemed “high concentration” – country– product import Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) more than 3,000 – computed each on a yearly basis. 14. World Trade Organization. (2025, 7 October). AI goods and frontloading lift world trade in 2025 but outlook dims for 2026. https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news25_e/stat_07oct25_e.htm#:~:text=World%20merchandise%20trade%20 volume%20growth,2025%20and%202.6%25%20for%202026. The Global Cooperation Barometer 2026 32