The Global Cooperation Barometer 2026

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15. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). (2025). OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report September 2025: Finding the Right Balance in Uncertain Times. https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-economic- outlook-interim-report-september-2025_67b10c01-en.html. 16. Analysis of US customs data reported by the US Census Bureau. 17. Note that there are several ways to measure FDI trends. This report uses a measure of stocks, to evaluate the deepening of total investment positions. This is complemented with an analysis of announcements of greenfield FDI – net new productive capacity. Both these measures have trended upwards in 2024. Other measures, such as FDI inflows, have not – although these are influenced by meaningful factors that do not reflect the nature of global cooperation – such as phantom FDI. See, for example: International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2019). The Rise of Phantom FDI in Global Tax Havens. 18. Devesa, T. et al. (2025, 22 September). The FDI Shake-up: How Foreign Direct Investment Today May Shape Industry and Trade Tomorrow. McKinsey Global Institute. https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/our-research/the-fdi-shake-up-how-foreign- direct-investment-today-may-shape-industry-and-trade-tomorrow . 19. Ibid. 20. World Trade Organization (WTO). (2025, 7 October). AI goods and frontloading lift world trade in 2025 but outlook dims for 2026. https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news25_e/stat_07oct25_e.htm#:~:text=World%20merchandise%20 trade%20volume%20growth,2025%20and%202.6%25%20for%202026. 21. World Trade Organization (WTO). (2025). Global Trade Outlook and Statistics. https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/ booksp_e/trade_outlook25_e.pdf. 22. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). (2025, 26 June). Cuts in official development assistance: OECD projections for 2025 and the near term. https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/cuts-in-official- development-assistance_8c530629-en/full-report.html. 23. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). (2025, 3 November). International Migration Outlook 2025. https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/international-migration-outlook-2025_ae26c893-en.html. 24. United Kingdom Home Office. (2025, 1 July). Statement of Changes to the Immigration Rules: HC 997, 1 July 2025. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/statement-of-changes-to-the-immigration-rules-hc-997-1-july-2025 ; Krishna, A. (ed.). (2025, 30 October). Saudi Arabia Makes Health Insurance Mandatory for Issuance of Temporary Work Visas. The Economic Times. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/nri/work/saudi-arabia-makes-health-insurance- mandatory-for-issuance-of-temporary-work-visas/articleshow/124942621.cms; Government of Canada, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada. (2025, 27 February). Canada Announces 2025 Express Entry Category-Based Draws, Plans for More In-Canada Draws to Reduce Labour Shortages. https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees- citizenship/news/2025/02/canada-announces-2025-express-entry-category-based-draws-plans-for-more-in-canada- draws-to-reduce-labour-shortages.html; The White House. (2025, 19 September). Restriction on Entry of Certain Nonimmigrant Workers. https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/09/restriction-on-entry-of-certain- nonimmigrant-workers/. 25. Levy, C., Mysore, M., Singhal S., & Marya, V. (2025, 11 April). Navigating tariffs with a geopolitical nerve center. https:// www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/geopolitics/our-insights/navigating-tariffs-with-a-geopolitical-nerve-center . 26. White, O. et al. (2025, 25 June). The Great Trade Rearrangement. McKinsey Global Institute. https://www.mckinsey.com/ mgi/our-research/the-great-trade-rearrangement. 27. Seong, J., et al. (2025, 18 June). A New Trade Paradigm: How Shifts in Trade Corridors Could Affect Business. McKinsey & Company. https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/geopolitics/our-insights/a-new-trade-paradigm-how-shifts-in-trade- corridors-could-affect-business. 28. Australian Government Department of Industry, Science and Resources. (2025, 21 October). United States-Australia Framework for Securing of Supply in the Mining and Processing of Critical Minerals and Rare Earths. https://www.industry. gov.au/publications/united-states-australia-framework-securing-supply-mining-and-processing-critical-minerals-and-rare- earths. 29. World Trade Organization (WTO) Regional Trade Agreements Database. (2025). RTA Tracker. https://rtais.wto.org/UI/ PublicMaintainRTAHome.aspx. 30. Devesa, T. et al. (2025, 22 September). The FDI Shake-up: How Foreign Direct Investment Today May Shape Industry and Trade Tomorrow. McKinsey Global Institute. https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/our-research/the-fdi-shake-up-how-foreign- direct-investment-today-may-shape-industry-and-trade-tomorrow. mckinsey.com. 31. fDi Markets (Financial Times). (n.d). The cross-border investment monitor. https://www.fdimarkets.com/. 32. McKinsey & Company. (2023, 14 June). The economic potential of generative AI: The next productivity frontier. https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/tech-and-ai/our-insights/the-economic-potential-of-generative-ai-the-next- productivity-frontier . 33. Australian Government Department of Education. (2025). Other international education data and research. https://www. education.gov.au/international-education-data-and-research/other-international-education-data-and-research. 34. Government of Canada, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada. (2025). Understanding Student and Temporary Worker Numbers in Canada. https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/corporate/reports-statistics/ statistics-open-data/immigration-stats/students-workers.html. 35. Levy, C. et al. (2025, 3 April). Restricted: How export controls are reshaping markets. McKinsey & Company. https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/geopolitics/our-insights/restricted-how-export-controls-are-reshaping-markets. The Global Cooperation Barometer 2026 33
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