The Global Risks Report 2024

Endnotes 1. Gourinchas, Pierr e-Olivier, “Resilient Global Economy Still Limping Along, With Growing Divergences”, IMF Blog, 10 October 2023, https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/10/10/resilient-global-economy-still-limping-along-with- growing-divergences. 2. Berman, Noah and Sabine Baumgartner , “The Weather of Summer 2023 Was the Most Extreme Yet”, Council on Foreign Relations, 18 September 2023, https://www.cfr.org/article/weather-summer-2023-was-most-extreme-yet#:~:text=The%20Weather%20of%20Summer%202023,heat%2C%20wildfires%2C%20and%20storms.&text=The%20summer%20of%202023%20was%20the%20Northern%20Hemisphere’s%20hottest%20in%20recorded%20history. 3. Ther e is an 80% chance it will continue to March-May 2024, and a 75-85% chance it will become a strong event. See: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, “El Niño/Southern Oscillation (Enso) Diagnostic Discussion”, 12 October 2023, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml; Becker, Emily, “October 2023 El Niño update: big cats”, NOAA, 12 October 2023, https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/october-2023-el-nino-update-big-cats. 4. N=443 for 39 or under age gr oup, and n=252 for 60 and over age group. 5. Ciccar elli, Matteo, Friderike Kuik and Catalina Martínez Hernández, “The outlook is mixed: the asymmetric effects of weather shocks on inflation”, European Central Bank, 10 October 2023, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-research/resbull/2023/html/ecb.rb231010~d34f3708ac.en.html. 6. State-based armed conflict is defined as: “a contested incompatibility that concer ns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year.” Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala Conflict Data Program, Uppsala University, https://ucdp.uu.se/exploratory, accessed 18 October 2023. 7. The average scoring of the top 10 rankings is nearly a full Likert point lower than last year (4.3 compar ed to 5.2, out of a possible 7), as is the perceived severity of the top risk (4.7 for Misinformation and disinformation in 2024, against 5.5 for Cost-of-living crisis in 2023). 8. Synthetic content r efers to the content (text, images, videos, audio) that has been generated or manipulated using digital technologies, including artificial intelligence and machine learning. 9. Australian Gover nment Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development, Communications and the Arts, New ACMA powers to combat misinformation and disinformation, https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/have-your-say/new-acma-powers-combat-misinformation-and-disinformation, accessed 19 October 2023; Breton, Thierry, Fighting disinformation and dissemination of illegal content in the context of the Digital Services Act and in times of conflict, 18 October 2023, speech delivered at the European Commission, Brussels, https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_23_5126; Bhatnaghar, Dhruv, “India’s regulatory response to online misinformation arguably violates international human rights law”, Oxford Human Rights Hub, 6 June 2023, https://ohrh.law.ox.ac.uk/indias-regulatory-response-to-online-misinformation-arguably-violates-international-human-rights-law/; Bhardwaj, Deeksha, “New digital law may carry a fine for disinformation”, Hindustan Times, 19 October 2023, https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/new-digital-law-may-carry-a-fine-for-disinformation-101695926259938.html. 10. Roberts, Huw and Emmie Hine, “The futur e of AI policy in China”, East Asia Forum, 27 September 2023, https://www. eastasiaforum.org/2023/09/27/the-future-of-ai-policy-in-china/. 11. For mor e information, see Europol, Facing reality? Law enforcement and the challenge of deepfakes, 2022, www.europol. europa.eu/cms/sites/default/files/documents/Europol_Innovation_Lab_Facing_Reality_Law_Enforcement_And_The_Challenge_Of_Deepfakes.pdf. 12. W orldometer, Countries in the world by population (2023), accessed 18 October 2023, https://www.worldometers.info/ world-population/population-by-country/; Statista, Internet penetration rate in the European Union from 2019 to 2022, by country, 26 July 2023, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1246141/eu-internet-penetration-rate/, accessed 18 October 2022; DataReportal, Digital 2023: Global Overview Report, 26 January 2023, https://datareportal.com/reports/digital-2023-global-overview-report. 13. Despite the potential benefits that AI can play in content moderation. See: Fr edheim, Rolf, Sebastian Bay, Tetiana Haiduchyk, Anton Dek and Martha Stolze, “Social media manipulation 2022/2023: Assessing the ability of social media companies to combat platform manipulation”, NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence, January 2023; digwatch, Content policy, Geneva Internet Platform, https://dig.watch/topics/content-policy, accessed 19 October 2023. 14. Fer nando, Christine, “Election disinformation campaigns targeted voters of color in 2020. Experts expect 2024 to be worse”, AP, 29 July 2023, https://apnews.com/article/elections-voting-misinformation-race-immigration-712a5c5a9b72c1668b8c9b1eb6e0038a; Shih, Gerry, “Inside the vast digital campaign by Hindu nationalists to inflame India”, The Washington Post, 26 September 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/09/26/hindu-nationalist-social-media-hate-campaign/; Tang, Didi, “The US warns of a Chinese global disinformation campaign that could undermine peace and stability”, AP, 4 October 2023, https://apnews.com/article/disinformation-china-us-xinjiang-global-opinion-c9e033f22622841935a2b1bc1060c01b. 15. Gr oh, Matt, “Detect DeepFakes: How to counteract misinformation created by AI”, MIT, https://www.media.mit.edu/ Global Risks Report 2024 33