This section looks at the critical role regional export markets will play in driving demand for Australia’s nascent green iron industry. Energetic diplomacy is needed with partners across the region to develop a regional green trade architecture, with interoperable standards and green shipping corridors (see Chapter 3.4). Building consensus around regional carbon pricing would further enhance the affordability – and therefore bankability – of Australian green iron.4.5 Regional enablers How do we value the cost of transforming our biggest export? Workshop participant Australia has a chance to be a first mover in the green iron export market but must act quickly, as the window of opportunity is closing. Other countries (especially the US and Middle East economies) are moving ahead with subsidies and fast-track developments. There is a risk that global buyers will turn to other producers if Australia does not signal commitment. Collaboration with global and regional trade partners and alignment with global standards in green steel are high priorities. The government has already signed a slew of MoUs on green trading and shipping with key partners in the region, including Korea and Singapore (see Appendix). China imports 50-60% of its iron ore from Australia, accounting for 86% of all Australian iron ore exports in 2023.125 The global leader in most zero-emissions technologies, China is accelerating the decarbonization of its economy and in late 2024 extended its ETS to include steel. Clearly Australia’s relationship with China is critical to boost the country’s fledgling green iron industry. When he met President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang in Beijing in a visit to China in July 2025, Prime Minister Albanese acknowledged that “one in four of Australia’s jobs depends upon trade” and “China is overwhelmingly, by far, the largest trading partner that Australia has.” At that meeting, both countries’ leaders agreed to establish a new policy dialogue on steel decarbonization. Meanwhile, South Korea and Japan are adopting net- zero measures that influence demand for green iron and steel. Cost competitiveness is critical for Australia to attract investment and compete with the Middle East and Southeast Asia. Policies and incentives are needed to reduce infrastructure and production costs, leveraging Australia’s natural advantages.Export deals for green iron with regional trading partners would send a much-needed demand signal to producers in Australia, said one speaker at the workshop, adding that Australia needs to feed the growth opportunities of its regional partners. In South Korea, for example, there are three EAF projects that will need access to DRI, while in Japan there are four (see Table 3). It is also important, said one participant, to appreciate that regional partners are starting from the same point that Australia is – that is to say, “Made in Japan”, “Made in Korea”. The difference will come down to whether Australia has a competitive advantage to manufacture green iron more cheaply, given its access to enormous quantities of renewable power and iron ore. There was broad consensus that Australia’s green iron industry will only achieve longevity if export demand is triggered. “We need to activate our foreign policy and diplomatic effort,” said one participant, adding: “We need a green export strategy tying all this together.” When asked whether the industry could provide government with a value to justify this level of government involvement, one participant replied: “How do we value the cost of transforming our biggest export?” Various regional bodies, including Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) and others, could play a role in promoting Asia-Pacific green trade (see Appendix). However, participants at the workshop emphasized that the real momentum lies in Australia’s bilateral deals with Japan, Korea and Singapore, where offtakes and MoUs are already happening.Export strategy critical to long-term success of green iron industry Unlocking Asia-Pacific as a First Mover: Australia’s Green Iron Opportunity 42

Unlocking Asia-Pacific as a First Mover 2025