05 Ortega Sanchez Adult RSV 508

CDC ACIP — Vaccine Advisory Committee

Acip

Slides

21

Document text

Economics of Respiratory Syncytial Virus 
Vaccination in Adults aged 50 -59 years 
at Increased Risk of Severe RSV Disease
SUMMARY COMPARING MODELS FROM:
GSK,Moderna ,Pfizer AND University of Michigan -CDC
Ismael R. Ortega -Sanchez, PhD
NCIRD/CDC
ACIP Meeting, April 16, 2025
1Disclaimer : The findings and conclusions in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of 
the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 
Conflicts of interest
•GSK model : David Singer et al.,  [complete list and affiliations, upon request]
•GSK manufactures the adjuvanted RSVPreF3 (RSVPreF3)  vaccine 
•RTI Health Solutions was funded by GSK
•Moderna model : Parinaz  Ghaswalla  et al., [complete list and affiliations, upon request]
•Moderna manufacturers the mRNA -1345 RSV  vaccine
•Quadrant Health Economics and RTI Health Solutions were funded by Moderna
•Pfizer  model : Reiko Sato et al., [complete list and affiliations, upon request]
•Pfizer Inc (PA, USA) manufacturers the bivalent stabilized prefusion F subunit ( RSVpreF ) vaccine
•Avalere Health (Washington DC, USA) was funded by Pfizer
•UM-CDC model : David W Hutton et al. from Univ Michigan, …, Ismael R Ortega -Sanchez et al. from CDC 
[complete list and affiliations, upon request ]
•All authors: No conflicts of interest
2
Economic analysis
Policy question : Should a single dose of RSV vaccine (any licensed product)a,b be 
recommended for adults 50 -59 years old at increased risk of severe RSV disease?
Cost -effectiveness analyses : 
               Comparator      Intervention
Base -case scenario:  
•What is the incremental cost-effectiveness  of vaccinating adults aged 50 -59 years 
at increased risk of severe RSV disease relative to no vaccination?
3No vaccinationVaccination: 
Receipt of one dose of any 
licensed RSV vaccine
a. GSK and Pfizer vaccines are currently licensed for adults 50 -59 years at increased risk: https://www.fda.gov/vaccines -blood -
biologics/arexvy , https://www.fda.gov/vaccines -blood -biologics/abrysvo
b. Moderna vaccine is not currently licensed in adults aged <60 years: https://www.fda.gov/vaccines -blood -biologics/vaccines/mresvia   
4Modeling design and assumptions
GSK Moderna Pfizer UM-CDC
Static analytical decision -making models 
Sensitivity analyses (and probabilistic simulation)
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Hypothetical population: 50 -59 years old at increased risk
Timeframe after a dose of RSV vaccine (in years)a 5 3 3.5b 3 and 2c
Analytic Horizon: Age - and comorbidity -specific life expectancy
 Age only
Discount rate: 3% 
Year of economic outcomes measured 2024 2024 2023 2024
Societal perspective (and healthcare perspective)
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a.Base -case in Moderna, and Pfizer models relied on a three -year timeframe (other timeframes included in scenario analyses) while GSK used a five -year timeframe in the base -case and 
three -year in scenario. In each model, selection of timeframe is based on the duration of protection assumption.
b.Although Pfizer base -case relies on a thee -year timeframe, in scenario analyses Pfizer reported outcomes for up to 70 months (>5  years timeframe) duration of vaccine protection.
c.Base -case in UM -CDC model uses three -year time frame for protein subunit vaccines and a two -year time frame for mRNA vaccine.  However, in a scenario analysis UM -CDC model 
uses a three -year time frame for the mRNA vaccine  
GSK, Moderna , Pfizer  and UM-CDC models 
comparison 
We will compare:
•Risk conditions included in base -case and scenarios
•Incidence of RSV hospitalization and outpatient care
•Medical costs due to RSV illness
•RSV mortality rate 
•Indirect costs due to RSV illness
•Quality -adjusted life years lost per RSV illness
•Initial vaccine effectiveness and waning assumptions
51st
2nd
3rd
4th 
GSK, Moderna , Pfizer  and UM-CDC models comparison: 
Risk conditions included in base -case and scenarios
6GSK Moderna Pfizer  UM-CDC
Base -caseChronic obstructive 
pulmonary disease 
(COPD)≥ 1 chronic medical 
conditiona≥ 1 chronic or 
immunocompromising 
medical conditionb≥ 1 chronic medical 
conditionc
Individual 
conditions 
evaluated in 
scenarios•Asthma
•Congestive heart failure 
•Coronary artery disease 
•Diabetes mellitus•Asthma
•COPD
•Coronary artery disease
•Congestive heart failure 
•Chronic kidney disease
•Chronic liver disease
•Diabetes mellitus 
•Severe obesity (body 
mass index [BMI] ≥40 
kg/m2)•Cardiovascular disease
•Pulmonary disease
•Renal disease
•Diabetes mellitus
•Immunocompromising 
conditions (e.g., solid cancer, 
hematological malignancies, 
solid organ transplant, or 
receiving immunosuppressive 
medication)•Asthma
•COPD
•Coronary artery disease
•Chronic kidney disease 
•Diabetes mellitus
•Severe obesity (BMI ≥40 
kg/m2)
•Heart failure
•Lung transplant
•Allogeneic hematopoietic 
cell transplant
•Autologous hematopoietic 
cell transplant
a.Moderna model: “≥ 1 chronic medical condition” included asthma, COPD, coronary artery disease, congestive heart failure, chro nic kidney disease, chronic liver disease, diabetes mellitus, , 
and severe obesity.
b.Pfizer model: “≥ 1 chronic or immunocompromising medical condition” included cardiovascular disease, hematologic disease, hep atic disease, metabolic disorders, pulmonary disease, renal 
disease, severe obesity (BMI ≥40 kg/m2), and immunocompromising conditions.
c.University of Michigan -CDC model: “≥ 1 chronic medical condition” included asthma, COPD, coronary artery disease, chronic kidney  disease, diabetes mellitus, and severe obesity (BMI ≥40 
kg/m2). 
7UM-CDC GSK
Incidence of RSV outpatient illness 
(per 100,000 persons per year)2,940 for adults 50 -59 years with cardiopulmonary 
disease (e.g., COPD) a
1,722  for adults 50 -59 years with other chronic 
condition (e.g., diabetes mellitus) a2,926  
for adults 50 -59 years with COPD a
Incidence of RSV hospitalization
(per 100,000 persons per year)106 for adults 50 -59 years with ≥1 chronic 
condition b 
169 for adults 50 -59 years with COPD, specifically b311
for adults 50 -59 years with COPD c
Medical costs per RSV hospitalization
$40,439 ($32,352 –$48,527)d $30,774
(range +/ - 20% )e
Medical costs per RSV ED visit and 
per RSV Outpatient visit$5,235 ($4,188 –$6,282)d
$586 ($469 –$704)d$884  (range +/ - 20%)f
$256 (range +/ - 20%)f
a.Adapted from Belongia  et al. Open Forum Infect Dis (2022). https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30619907/ . Adjusted upward by a factor of 1.5 for diagnostic test sensitivity in detecting RSV 
infection (McLaughlin et al. [2022]) https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35873302/  
b.CDC unpublished data, updates to analysis presented to ACIP (Woodruff, February 2024: https://www.cdc.gov/acip/downloads/slides -2024 -02-28-29/03 -RSV-Adults -Woodruff -508.pdf ).
c.Adapted from Branche et al. (2022), https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34244735/  across Rochester and New York City sites adjusted by a factor of 1.5 for diagnostic test sensitivity in 
detecting RSV infection (McLaughlin et al. [2022]) https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35873302/  
d.For the general population, adjusted according to results for adults with and without chronic conditions. Averin  et al. (2024) https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38486815/
e.CMS Medicare Inpatient Hospitals - by Geography and Service (CMS, 202 4); (DRG Average Payments from 2022 dataset); Falsey  et al. (2005) https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/15858184/   
f.CMS.gov Hospital Outpatient Prospective Payment (CMS, 2024). Average of CPT 99283 and 99284.  Added is the physician fee from  CMS.gov Physician Fee Lookup Tool (CMS, 2024). Average 
of CPT 99283 and 99284. https://www.cms.gov/medicare/payment/prospective -payment -systems/hospital -outpatient/regulations -notices/cms -1786 -fc UM-CDC and GSK models:  Incidence and medical 
costs of RSV hospitalization and outpatient care
8UM-CDC Moderna
Incidence of RSV outpatient illness
(per 100,000 persons per year) 1,722  for adults 50 -59 years with  ≥1 chronic 
conditiona2,322  for adults 50 -59 years with ≥1 
conditions and 
964 for adults 50 -59 years, 
without chronic conditionsb
Incidence of RSV hospitalization
(per 100,000 persons per year)106 for adults 50 -59 years with ≥ 1 chronic 
condition c 217.9  for adults 50 -59 years with ≥1 
conditions b
Medical costs per RSV hospitalization$40,439 
($32,352 – $48,527) e $11,876 
($8,407 - $47,512)f
Medical costs per RSV ED visit and 
per RSV Outpatient visit$5,235 ($4,188 – $6,282)  e
$586 ($469 – $704) e$4,399 ( no range ) d, g
$2,273 ( no range ) f
a. Adapted from Belongia  et al. Open Forum Infect Dis (2022). https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30619907/ . Adjusted upward by a factor of 1.5 for diagnostic test sensitivity in detecting RSV infection 
(McLaughlin et al. [2022]) https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35873302/  
b. Adjusted by 1.5x for PCR test sensitivity. Adapted from McLaughlin et al. Open Forum Infect Dis (2022), https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30619907/  and Weycker  (2024), 
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38236516/  using methods applied in Averin  (2024), https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38486815/   
c. CDC unpublished data, updates to analysis presented to ACIP (Woodruff, February 2024: https://www.cdc.gov/acip/downloads/slides -2024 -02-28-29/03 -RSV-Adults -Woodruff -508.pdf ).
d. Averin  et al. (2024) Supplemental Table 3 https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38486815/
e. For the general population, adjusted according to results for adults with and without chronic conditions. Averin  et al. (2024) https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38486815/
f. Wyffels  et al. (2020), https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32026380/  (Moderna’s technical report provides inpatient cost ranges based on assumptions and supported by other studies)
g. Merative  MarketScan  Commercial Claims and Encounters (CCAE) and Medicare Supplemental Coordination of Benefits (MDCR) Databases (2016 -2019)UM-CDC and Moderna  models:  Incidence and 
medical costs of RSV hospitalization and outpatient care
9UM-CDC Pfizer
Incidence of RSV outpatient illness 
(per 100,000 persons per year)1,722  for adults 50 -59 years with ≥1 chronic 
medical condition (e.g., diabetes mellitus) a3,158 
for adults 50 -59 years with ≥1 condition b
Incidence of RSV hospitalization
(per 100,000 persons per year)106 for adults 50 -59 years with ≥ 1 chronic 
condition c 367
for adults 50 -59 years with ≥1 condition b
Medical costs per RSV hospitalization$40,439 
($32,352 – $48,527) d $40,361
(no range reported)e
Medical costs per RSV ED visit and 
per RSV Outpatient visit$5,235 ($4,188 – $6,282)  d
$586 ($469 – $704) d$6,168  ( no range reported ) d, e
$933 ( no range reported ) d, e
a.Adapted from Belongia  et al. Open Forum Infect Dis (2022). https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30619907/ . Adjusted upward by a factor of 1.5 for diagnostic test sensitivity in detecting RSV 
infection (McLaughlin et al. [2022]) https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35873302/  
b.Adapted from McLaughlin et al. (2022), https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35873302/ ; Weycker  et al. (2024), https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38236516/ ; Ramirez et al. (2023), 
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37148463/ ; Onwuchekwa et al. (2023), https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36661222/ . Age and risk group is 50 -64 years  with selected chronic or 
immunocompromising medical conditions.
c.CDC unpublished data, updates to analysis presented to ACIP (Woodruff, February 2024: https://www.cdc.gov/acip/downloads/slides -2024 -02-28-29/03 -RSV-Adults -Woodruff -508.pdf ).
d.For the general population, adjusted according to results for adults with and without chronic conditions. Averin  et al. (2024) https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38486815/
e.Averin  et al (2024) , https://doi.org/10.1093/ofid/ofae097  .UM-CDC and Pfizer  models:  Incidence and 
medical costs of RSV hospitalization and outpatient care
GSK, Moderna , Pfizer  and UM-CDC models: 
Mortality, indirect costs and quality -adjusted life -years 
10GSK Moderna Pfizer  UM-CDC
Mortality
(case fatality 
ratio, CFR)7.0%  CFR among COPD 
hospitalized for RSV -LRTD4.3%  CFR among hospitalized 4.7%  CFR among hospitalized 
50-64y CMC+6.4 deaths per 100 RSV 
hospitalizations, inclusive of 
deaths among non -
hospitalized persons
Indirect costs
(productivity 
losses)Premature death 
      Market: 
50-54 years: $871,542 
55-59 years: $601,091
Nonmarket: 
50-54 years: $691,270
55-59 years: $621,604
Days of work lost
Inpatient care: 15.18 
ED/Outpatient care: 4.30
No treatment: 0.50Premature death 
Not included in their analyses
Days of work lost
Inpatient care: 7.53
ED care: 3.30
Outpatient care: 2.30
Presenteeism: 1 day all cases
Caregiver: 0.75x patient’s timePremature death 
50-59 years with CMC+: 
$333,915 
Days of work lost
Inpatient care: 10
ED/Outpatient care: 5
Caregiver: 0.50x patient’s timePremature death 
Age-specific annual mortality 
and life expectancy from life 
tablesa multiplied by market 
and non -market foregone 
income and discounted at 3% 
per year
Days of work lost
Inpatient care:  8
ED/Outpatient care: 2.50
QALY LossRSV-URTD 0.0133
RSV-LRTD  0.0178  ED/Outpatient 0.0185
       Inpatient    0.0193
  No treatment 0.0093ED/Outpatient 0.0054
           Inpatient 0.0167Outpatient  0.0185
Inpatient  0.0193
a. Vital Statistics Reports. National Vital Statistics Reports Vol 71, No 1, August 8, 2022. United States Life Tables, 2020. Pu b. online 2022. Accessed March 7, 2025. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/index.htm  
Abbreviations : COPD= chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, LRTD= lower respiratory tract disease, CFR= case fatality ratio, ED= Emergency d epartment, CMC+= selected chronic or immunocompromising 
medical conditions, QALY= quality -adjusted life -year
42 48 54 60
GSK (RSVPreF3) and UM-CDC (subunit): Modeled vaccine 
effectiveness and duration of protection per outcome
11
The pink -shaded area denotes a higher level of uncertainty of the waning assumption
a. Three -year projected effectiveness against ED and hospitalization based on a meta -analysis of real -world vaccine effectiveness s tudies. Base case truncated at 36 
months based on available clinical follow -up extending only through three RSV seasons for a subunit vaccineGSKSource : La EM, et al.. 
Hum Vaccin  
Immunother . 2024 
Dec 
31;20(1):2432745. 
https://doi.org/10.1
080/21645515.2024.
2432745  
LRTD= Lower 
respiratory tract 
disease, ARI = acute 
respiratory infectionSource : UM -CDC 
is based on 
Hutton et al. 
ACIP 
presentation 
(Apr 2025) and 
on an 
unpublished 
manuscriptUM-CDCa
42 48 54 60
84.6%
65.1%72.0%
47.0%____  
Outpatient visit  
(PO/HO)
____  
Hospitalization 
(including ICU & 
death) and EDPfizerb
12Pfizer (RSVpreF ) and UM-CDC (subunit): Modeled vaccine 
effectiveness and duration of protection per outcome
UM-CDCa
The pink -shaded area denotes a higher level of uncertainty of the waning assumption beyond available phase 3 data
a.UM-CDC: Three -year projected effectiveness against ED and hospitalization based on a meta -analysis of real -world vaccine effecti veness studies. Base case truncated at 36 
months based on available clinical follow -up extending only through three RSV seasons for a subunit vaccine
b.Pfizer model: Base -case vaccine effectiveness against RSV -Hospital and RSV -ED corresponding to the solid blue line was applied. The dotted blue line reflects vaccine 
effectiveness against RSV -Hospital and RSV -ED if the waning pattern would persist.Source : Pfizer 
Technical report 
and Slides 
submitted to 
CDC  (2024 and 
January 2025)
ICU = Intensive 
care unit, ED= 
Emergency 
department, 
PO= physician 
office, HO = 
hospital 
outpatientSource : UM -
CDC is based on 
Hutton et al. 
ACIP 
presentation 
(Apr 2025) and 
on an 
unpublished 
manuscript
Moderna  and UM-CDC: Modeled vaccine 
effectiveness and duration of protection per outcome
13UM-CDCa (two-year timeframe: solid lines )
Scenario:  3-year timeframe linear decay, 0% at 36 months: dotted lines 
The pink -shaded areas denote a higher level of uncertainty of the waning assumption beyond available phase 3 data
a.UM-CDC base case truncated at 24 months based on available clinical follow -up extending only through a median of <24 months per participant
   Source: for Moderna, Moderna's technical report (2025) and for UM -CDC, Hutton et al., ACIP Presentation (Apr 2025) Moderna  (three -year timeframe ) 
ARD = Acute respiratory disease
LRTD =Lower respiratory tract disease
ED = Emergency department86.7%
83.7%
68.4%
____  Vaccine effectiveness for RSV Hospitalization & ED = VE LRTD ≥2 symptoms
____ Vaccine effectiveness for RSV Outpatient= VE medically attended ARD

a.GSK estimated cost -saving values for COPD (base -case) and for each selected individual condition: heart failure, CAD, asthma and di abetes.  
b.In the 3 -year timeframe  for a generic protein subunit vaccine effectiveness , UM-CDC estimated a societal cost of $ 43,070/QALY saved  for adults with at least one 
chronic condition (COPD, asthma, CAD, CKD, severe obesity, or diabetes) vaccinated with subunit  RSV vaccine. For individual conditions, when vaccinating with a 
generic protein subunit RSV vaccine, ICERs ranged from cost -saving (CKD, COPD, BMI ≥40) to $ 57,441  (Diabetes) per QALY saved. When evaluating other specific 
conditions not included in “at least one” , $/QALY for adults aged 50 -59 years were also cost -saving (i.e., lung transplant, allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplant, and  
autologous hematopoietic cell transplant, heart failure).
Abbreviations : COPD= Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, CAD=Coronary artery disease, CKD= Chronic kidney disease, ICER= Incremental co st-effectiveness ratio, 
BMI = Body mass index, QALY= quality -adjusted life -year Incremental cost -effectiveness:  
GSK and UM-CDC
Policy question:  What is the incremental cost-effectiveness  of vaccinating adults aged 50 -59 years 
oldat increased risk  of severe RSV illness relative  to “No vaccination”? 
14GSK UM-CDC
$/QALY saved ( 3-year 
timeframe )Cost -saving (COPD)a $44,203b
For a generic protein subunit RSV vaccine:
•Cost -saving: CKD, COPD, BMI≥40
•$9,889 (Asthma)
•$13,177 (CAD)
•$57,441 (Diabetes) 
$/QALY saved ( 5-year 
timeframe )Cost -saving (COPD)a
(base -case)Not included
a.Pfizer  model  estimated cost -saving values for selected high -risk conditions: COPD, CAD, CKD, diabetes mellitus, immune compromised an d severe immune compromised. 
Base -case used a 3.5 -year vaccine efficacy duration from Phase 3 clinical trials.
b.In the 3 -year timeframe for a generic protein subunit vaccine effectiveness , UM -CDC estimated a societal cost of $ 43,070/QALY saved for adults with at least one chronic condition 
(COPD, asthma, CAD, CKD,  severe  obesity , or diabetes ) vaccinated with subunit RSV vaccine. For individual conditions, when vaccinating with a generic protein subunit RSV vaccine, ICERs 
ranged from cost -saving (CKD, COPD, BMI>40) to $57,441  (Diabetes) per QALY saved. When evaluating other specific conditions not included in “at least one” , $/QALY for 50-59 years old 
were also cost -saving (i.e., lung transplant, allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplant, autologous hematopoietic cell transplant , and heart failure).
Abbreviations : COPD= Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, CAD=Coronary artery disease, CKD= Chronic kidney disease, ICER= Incremental co st-effectiveness ratio, BMI = 
Body mass index, QALY= quality -adjusted life -year Incremental cost -effectiveness:
 Pfizer  and UM-CDC
Policy question:  What is the incremental cost-effectiveness  of vaccinating adults aged 50 -59 years 
oldat increased risk  of severe RSV illness relative  to “No vaccination”? 
15Pfizera UM-CDCb
$/QALY saved ( 3- to 3.5 -
year timeframe ) base -caseCost saving $41,754
For a generic protein subunit RSV vaccine:
•Cost -saving: CKD, COPD, BMI≥40
•$9,889 (Asthma)
•$13,177 (CAD)
•$57,441 (Diabetes) 
$/QALY saved ( 70 months 
timeframe scenario )Cost Saving Not included
a.Moderna reported $/QALY of $40,493 (COPD), $64,289 (CLD), $$61,504 (CKD), $83,598 (Diabetes) and $65,125  (severe obesity, BMI≥  40.
b.In the base case (2 -year timeframe), UM -CDC estimated a societal cost of $ 152,293/QALY saved for adults with at least one chronic condition (COPD, asthma, CAD, CKD, severe 
obesity, or diabetes). When evaluating other specific conditions not included in “at least one,”  $/QALY reported were cost -saving (i.e., lung transplant, allogeneic hematopoietic 
cell transplant, autologous hematopoietic cell transplant, and heart failure ).
Abbreviations : CHF= Congestive heart failure, COPD= Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, CLD= Chronic liver disease, CAD=Coronary artery  disease, CKD= Chronic kidney disease, 
ICER= Incremental cost -effectiveness ratio, BMI = Body mass index, QALY= quality -adjusted life -year Incremental cost -effectiveness:
Moderna  and UM-CDC
Policy question:  What is the incremental cost-effectiveness  of vaccinating adults aged 50 -59 years 
oldat increased risk  of severe RSV illness relative  to “No vaccination”? 
16Moderna UM-CDC
$/QALY saved ( 2-year 
timeframe )$75,862 $152,293 (Base case)b
For individual conditions costs ranged from 
$6,052 (CKD) to
$174,454 (Diabetes) per QALY saved
$/QALY saved ( 3-year 
timeframe ) $65,125 (Base case)a
For individual conditions costs ranged 
from $10,889 (CHF and heart failure) to 
$95,606 (Asthma) per QALY saved$95,182
For individual conditions ranged from cost -
saving (CKD) to $114,315 (Diabetes) per 
QALY saved
Limitations
17•Factors not considered that may result in underestimating the cost -effectiveness of RSV 
vaccination
•Impact of RSV on long -term prognosis of included higher risk conditions 
•Indirect effects of vaccination (i.e., protection against RSV transmission)
•Quality -of-life impact on caregivers during RSV illness
•Two models ( GSK, UM-CDC) do not include, and two models (Moderna, Pfizer ) partially include
•Productivity impact (work time missed) on caregivers during RSV illness
•Manufacturer models do not include  RSV-related medical costs incurred after discharge from an RSV -associated 
hospitalization or emergency department visit (i.e., stay in long -term care or rehabilitation facility)
•Partially  include potential  vaccine -associated serious adverse events (SAEs) or Guillain Barre syndrome (GBS): Quality 
of life impact, resource utilization, and costs associated with SAEs, including GBS specifically for protein subunit RSV 
vaccines.
•Duration of vaccine protection beyond clinical trial follow -up time ( beyond median 19 months, 
Moderna ; mean 18 months , Pfizer ormedian 31 months ,GSK) is unknown  
•All 4 models assumed non -zero declining  efficacy beyond trial time data
•All 4 models assumed optimal timing of vaccination, in the late summer and early fall, prior to 
RSV season onset .
Conclusion
18•Differences in key inputs and assumptions among GSK, Moderna , Pfizer  and UM-CDC models 
explain differences in results:
•Annual incidence of RSV hospitalization and outpatient disease
•Initial vaccine efficacy/effectiveness and waning of protection assumptions
•Medical cost per RSV hospitalization 
•Resulting ICERs for policy question also vary by vaccine type and risk condition
•Vaccinating adults aged 50 -59 years old at increased risk of severe RSV disease  showed disperse 
$/QALY ratios
•Assuming 3 years of vaccine protection: 
•Outcomes for PreF  combined subunit RSV vaccine ranged from societal cost-saving  (GSK and Pfizer models and 
for all included high -risk conditions ) to $43,070  per QALY saved ( UM-CDC, though some high -risk conditions were 
reported to be cost -saving)
•Outcomes for PreF  mRNA RSV vaccine ranged from $65,125 ( Moderna ) to $ 95,182 (UM-CDC) per QALY saved
•Overall, vaccination would significantly reduce RSV disease burden in adults 50 -59 years at 
increased risk of severe RSV disease.
•Efficacy data from clinical trials from all vaccines as well as conservative assumptions about 
duration of protection support impact on disease reduction and health risks
Acknowledgements 
From NCIRD/CDC
•Michael Melgar
•Amadea Britton
•Andrew Leidner 
•Ruth Link -Gelles
•Allison Ciesla
•Meredith McMorrow
Also:
•Adult RSV working group members
19

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