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Medford Weather Service office sets 'spot forecast' record Mike Petrucelli is a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Medford, which Thursday offered its 1,030th spot forecast, marking a new national record. [Mail Tribune / Jamie Lusch] Thursday Nov 16, 2017 at 5:59 PM Nov 16, 2017 at 6:16 PM Mark Freeman Mail Tribune @MTwriterFreeman The 3-acre Hugo fire was barely big enough to get a name when it ignited July 19 outside of this rural Josephine County burg, but it still got its own weather forecast. Instead of relying on a general forecast, Oregon Department of Forestry officials asked the National Weather Service for a forecast specific for the fire area. And 17 minutes later, they received it: Humidity peaking at 70 percent. Winds up to 4 mph at eye level, but up to 10 mph 20 feet above the ground. High temperature of 84 degrees. That so-called "spot forecast" helped state foresters snuff out the Hugo fire before it became a bigger problem, an effort repeated more than 1,000 times so far this calendar year and netting the National Weather Service's Medford office top-dog status in spot forecasting. Meteorologists at the Medford airport office Thursday offered their 1,030th spot forecast, marking a new national record and becoming only the second field office to supply more than 1,000 spot forecasts in the agency's history. "This year has been crazy," says Ryan Sandler, the Weather Service's warning coordinator meteorologist. "The Medford forecasters have done more than three offices in the East Coast combined." The previous record was 1,026 done by the Salt Lake City field office in 2009, agency records show. "By the end of the year, we're going to smoke them, no pun intended," Sandler says. If fact, this year's extremely busy wildfire season was a key contributor in bumping up spot-forecast requests from the typical 800 to high 900s done annually in recent years, Sandler says. While large blazes like the Chetco Bar fire have their own meteorologist assigned to them, wildland firefighters rely on these spot forecasts that take into account variables such as slope, aspect and topography to gauge attack plans on smaller blazes like the Hugo fire. "It sure helps us get a better product than the general forecast to make better decisions and help keep people safer," says Eric Hensel, fire staff officer for the Rogue River-Siskiyou National Forest, which joins ODF and the Bureau of Land Management in making regular forecast requests. "I'm not surprised they had so many, based on the year we had," Hensel says. Along with the heavy fire season, the area's rare topography and myriad micro-climates mean Southern Oregon does not have a one-size-fits-all forecast like one might see in the Midwest. "We have an incredible number of micro-climates," Sandler says. "Grants Pass gets twice the rain Medford does. There are micro-climates like that everywhere in the Rogue Valley." Other factors include elevation changes and proximity to the ocean, he says. The office creates weather forecasts for seven southwest Oregon counties as well as Siskiyou and Modoc counties in Northern California. Outside of fire season, agencies conducting controlled burns regularly seek forecasts for their burn areas, Sandler says. A meteorologist assigned to the spot forecast takes the general forecast and hones it down based on information supplied by the agency, as well as experience dealing with on-the-ground forecasting here, Sandler says. The web-based system allows agencies to send in the coordinates of the spot forecast they request. Sandler says meteorologists typically turn a wildfire request around in less than a half-hour, while controlled burns are usually requested a few days ahead of time. The Hugo fire spot forecast, for instance, was generated 17 minutes after it was requested, records show. "It's all about safety," Sandler says. — Reach Mail Tribune reporter Mark Freeman at 541-776-4470 or [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/MTwriterFreeman.