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The leaning snowman, which fell over long after Madelyn had finished her work, was built on the Hedrick Middle School sports field (Mail Tribune / Bob Pennell) WHAT SNOW? The Weather Service's computer said it would snow Tuesday, but the humans didn't believe it By ANITA BURKE Mail Tribune They say you can't fool Mother Nature, but Mother Nature proved she can still keep forecasters guessing right up until the last minute when a midday storm dumped more than 3 inches of snow on the Rogue Valley Tuesday with little advance warning. "We try to get things out quickly, but still have accuracy," said Dennis Gettman, science and operations officer at the Medford office of the National Weather Service. "We couldn't have a high level of confidence until this one was right on our doorstep." Weather forecasters had tracked a slow-moving cold front that was loaded with moisture and headed toward Southern Oregon, but they couldn't be certain what it would bring. Computer models told the state's forecasters it would snow, but the humans who man the computers had their doubts. State climatologist George Taylor said it's difficult for both forecasters and computer models to pick up the subtle differences in moisture and temperatures to tell the difference between when it will snow and when it just rains. The computers had it right, "but some of the forecasters were less confident. The ones who believed the models were right, and ones who didn't, weren't. But the models kept saying that the storm was going to stay together, and they just nailed it." Advertisement was going to stay together, and they just nailed it." The front was preceded by "a certain amount of warm air," that could have set snow levels climbing into the mountains, Gettman said. The system itself had to make its way over several ridges, including the Coast Range, to get to the Rogue Valley. "Ridges are not the place for storm development," he explained. "They can break storms apart." The rush down into the valley often dries out air and limits precipitation, he said. That downslope effect was part of the reason why the Rogue Valley got just a dusting of snow from last week's Arctic blast, while Douglas County foothills, on the upslope side, got several inches. "We could have three or four or five systems exactly like this one that don't deliver snow," Gettman said. Preliminary forecasts, like the one published in the Mail Tribune, called for partial sunshine and highs in the 40s on Tuesday. By midmorning, however, forecasters noted that clouds had rolled in to prevent warming. A deep layer of cold air had settled over the valley, preventing the warming and drying downslope effect. The precipitation packed into this front would fall as snow. The weather service issued a snow advisory at 10:34 a.m. and the flakes started falling shortly thereafter. Medford public works crews, who have a "storm ready" certification that delivers updated forecasts and weather alerts that trigger alarms at the operations center, were tracking the storm and getting ready when Public Works Director Cory Crebbin stopped in Tuesday morning. "I was at operations around 10:30 a.m. and I kind of pooh-poohed it all, but when I left the shop, it was snowing," he said. "They are dialed in to the weather out there." Oregon Department of Transportation crews were ready, too, officials said. "These forecasts are tricky business," said Eryca McCartin, ODOT's district manager. "We have to be prepared for whatever happens. "We sand and de-ice and sometimes the storm happens and sometimes it doesn't. We are ready all the time." Reach reporter Anita Burke at 776-4485 or at [email protected] The Associated Press contributed to this article. Would you like to respond to this story? If so Click Here to visit our forums. 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