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Medford lags in rainfall so far this water year Wednesday Dec 20, 2017 at 1:26 PM Dec 20, 2017 at 1:26 PM Ryan Pfeil Mail Tribune @RyanPfeil Medford is a bit parched 11-1/2 weeks into the water year, with only 4.37 inches of precipitation to its name, two-thirds of the "normal" amount to fall by this time of year: 6.48 inches. That includes the quarter-inch that fell on the city overnight as a recent system pushed through, according to National Weather Service meteorologist Brett Lutz. A ridge of high pressure that's loitered along the West Coast since about Thanksgiving is mostly to blame. "Really, for the majority of the western United States, precipitation for the month of December has been well below normal," Lutz said. Lutz added that while such high pressure ridges are not unusual during a La Nina year — currently underway — it is unusual that one would be located so close to the West Coast, and that it has persisted for so long. That said, there's plenty of water year to go, and Lutz thinks there's a good chance we'll get back on track. "Most of the time when we're in a La Nina, like we are, and even when we do have a drier-than-normal December, similar to what we're having, the majority of the time — let's say about 75 percent of the time looking at past similar events — the months of January, February and March combined usually do result in precipitation that's near normal for those months. "We have moderate confidence that things are going to find their way back to something more typical in terms of precipitation," Lutz said. Tuesday's system brought a mix of rain and snow to Jackson County, with as much as 10 inches to a foot of snow falling across parts of the Cascades, and up to 8 inches on Four Mile Lake, Fish Lake and Mount Ashland. The ski area reported a total of 8 inches on the lower mountain as of Tuesday morning. About 2 inches fell on Howard Prairie, and areas outside Applegate, Prospect, Gold Hill and Ashland got anywhere from one-tenth to one-half inch of snow. "It looks like the bulk of the accumulations were above 3,500 feet, but there was some accumulation down to about 2,000 (feet) in some areas," Lutz said. Anywhere from one-quarter-inch to an inch of rain fell across the Rogue Valley. A weaker system is inbound, and there's a chance it could mean some snow for higher elevations on Christmas Eve. But a lot of that depends on its strength and that of an inversion layer that has moved into the region. "I think areas above 3,500 feet are going to see a white Christmas," Lutz said. — Reach reporter Ryan Pfeil at 541-776-4468 or [email protected]. Follow him at www.twitter.com/ryanpfeil.