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Medford enrollment up slightly By Damian Mann Enrollment in the Medford School District increased only slightly this year, a trend that will continue as the economy softens, migration from California slows and the area�s population ages, school officials say. A report released by the district this week showed enrollment increased only .3 percent over last year compared to hikes of 2 percent or more in the previous three years. This contrasts with an overall five-year increase in students of 8.2 percent. By 2005, the report forecasts an enrollment of 13,101 students � a modest increase of 3.3 percent. The bulk of the growth will show in local high schools, which are projected to grow by 11.4 percent as baby boomers� children near graduation. The district, which receives about $5,000 in revenues for every student enrolled, commissioned the report to help plan for the future. Superintendent Steve Wisely said this year�s enrollment was less than a projected 1 percent growth but still shows the need to build another middle school and a skills center to relieve future overcrowding at the high schools. Dr. Judith A. Barmack, of Portland, who prepared the report, said the district could eventually experience tremendous growth from planned developments in southeast Medford. She said the additional population increase of 10,000 people will occur beyond her five-year projections. Barmack said most of Jackson County�s population growth has been to the north and south of Medford. From 1990 to 1999, Eagle Point posted a 287 percent growth, Central Point increased 56 percent and Talent grew 55 percent. Medford grew by 28 percent during the same period. Barmack predicts that the less-than-robust regional economy will also discourage families from moving to this area from other states, particularly California. Barmack said Jackson County is doing better overall than many parts of the state. Portland, for example, is facing declining enrollment, forcing the potential closure of some schools. Hispanic students, which account for half the Medford district�s growth during the past 10 years, also have been enrolling in lower numbers. "This year, Hispanic enrollment slowed to only 3 percent, down from double-digit growth in the two preceding years. The much-lower Hispanic enrollment gains this year help explain why overall district enrollment growth was so low," Barmack said. Another factor has been the increase in enrollment in private schools, the popularity of home schooling, and transfers of students from one district to another. Private schools, particularly Christian and Catholic, now have 1,628 students in the Medford area. Home-schooling accounts for 444 students. Barmack forecasts a slight drop in the student population at elementary schools during the next five years. Middle-school enrollment would peak by 2003 to 2,139 students, then drop back to 1,988 by 2005. The largest increase in students in the next five years would be at the high schools, which will have a projected enrollment of 4,283, an 11.4 percent increase. Barmack said the biggest factor affecting this surge at the high schools is the so-called "echo baby boom," which are the children of the baby boomers. Reach reporter Damian Mann at 776-4476, or e-mail [email protected] Mail Tribune Home | Ottaway Newspapers, Inc. | Dow Jones & Co., Inc. | Privacy | Contact Us Copyright � 2000 Mail Tribune, Inc.