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Oregon Road Conditions & Cams Email Story to a Friend August 19, 2005 Medford market: Is your home overpriced? By GREG STILES Mail Tribune Medford is the 10th most overpriced real estate market in the country, according to a national study published Wednesday. The study was released by economist Richard J. DeKaser of National City Corp. in Cleveland and ran in USA Today. DeKaser’s findings indicate Medford houses were overvalued by 55 percent during the first quarter of this year — putting it between Napa, Calif., at 57 percent and Sacramento at 54 percent. Santa Barbara, Calif., where prices are 69 percent higher than normal, ranked No. 1 the past three years. The study looked at single-family house-price-to-income ratios for 299 metropolitan areas from 1985 to 2005. The areas account for 80 percent of U.S. single family housing market value. Household population density, mortgage interest rates, relative income levels and characteristics unique to each metro area were taken into account in figuring the price-to-income ratios, the study said. Markets are considered extremely overvalued when observed prices exceed statistical norms by 30 percent. Advertisement In a telephone interview Thursday, DeKaser cautioned there are other, specific market factors that influence prices as well, meaning Medford’s ranking of 10th in the nation might be overstated. "If there is a lot of second-home purchasing going on, then it means the effective population density is greater than density based solely on primary residences," DeKaser said. "If there is a large level of people buying properties they don’t use as their primary residences, then the household density would be understated. "If you were able to capture that mathematically, it may drop Medford from No. 10 to No. 15 or 20." Investors make up 23 percent of new home buyers in the Medford-Ashland area, according to an analysis published last month by First American Corp. When DeKaser began tracking 99 metropolitan markets in 1980, Medford wasn’t one of them. But a change in the way government data is reported and changes in Metropolitan Statistical Areas themselves altered the way DeKaser works. He now tracks 299 markets, including Medford. DeKaser said the 99 metro areas he formerly examined account for 70 percent of the nation’s population, but the new view is much broader. "When the government redefined areas, some lost counties and others picked up a county or two," he said. "But generally it provides far greater detail." DeKaser’s revamped model shows that Medford housing prices were actually undervalued from 1985 until about 1994. For the next eight years, prices were pretty much where they should be, according to the model. But late in 2001 values began pulling away, accelerating the past two years. DeKaser said his charts were originally developed for financial lenders’ risk management departments. "But 70 percent of Americans own their own home and for many of them it’s their biggest asset," he said. "But I didn’t come close to anticipating the amount of mass interest this would create. It’s sure taken off." On the Net: www.nationalcity.com/corporate/EconomicInsight/default.asp Reach reporter Greg Stiles at 776-4463 or e-mail Medford market: Is your home overpriced? ">[email protected] . Mail Tribune Home | Local News | Sports | Business | Obituaries | Life | Opinion AP News | Archives | Site Map | Community | Classified Copyright © 1997-2005 Mail Tribune, Inc. All rights reserved. Privacy Policy | Terms & Conditions | Website Feedback www.bingo.com Home Security Systems Trunks, Footlocker dvd-r Distance Education Computer Security Ztech Media Hosting Sports Equipment Online Casino Student Loans tcg student loan consolidation Online Pharmacy Online Casino Reviews Myspace Home Equity Loans Windermere Van Vleet Rogue Valley Travel Discount Hotel Reservations Southern Oregon Loans Online Casino News Casino Gambling Sites Budget Website Templates Online Bingo Entertainment Guide Advertisement s