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0 of 3 Premium Clicks used this month SUBSCRIBE Print + Online Subscriber Activation | Register x Forgot Password | Need an Account? e-edition | subscribe | newsletter | deals Home News Latest Stories Emergency services Winter Lights Festival draws hundreds despite competition Man commits suicide in front of RR police station Winter Lights Festival kicks off tonight in Medford Train lovers: head down to Medford Armory today Crime, Courts and Emergency Services Emergency services Emergency services Wrap Up, Nov. 28 Former Central Point residents accused of abusing their adopted children Homemade bomb found inside stolen car after arrest of fleeing transient Politics and Elections Buckley again named Ways and Means Committee co-chairman Latest count shows Measure 92 supporters narrowing deficit Granlund cartoon: GOP wrecking balls Ballot measures played little role in mobilizing voters in state Senate race 'Euphoria' over pot initiative Education Homelessness is growing problem for Medford students Les AuCoin recommended for SOU board Good news for SOU: Enrollment's up Mom gives school lobby a makeover Crater students present play about Thoreau's night in jail Environment Hawks use I-5 as hunting ground Curbing urban runoff in Gold Hill Mt. View Estates' fill, riprap work lacked county permit Birders sought for bird counts Grow 'em before you plant 'em State News Photo of hug between boy, officer at Portland protest goes viral Bill would tighten limits on license plate readers UO teaching assistants prepared to strike Growers cheer higher Christmas tree prices Police dog fired for poor performance Nation - World Grand jury won't indict Ferguson cop in shooting Obituaries Earle Morgan Swift Jr. Death Notices Lue K. Woolstenhulme Mary "Janet" Kimmons In Appreciation Weather Photo Galleries Since You Asked Videos Web Cams Mail Tribune 100 Sports Latest Stories SOU stuns top-ranked Carroll Seahawks’ defense rounding into top form SOU men secure sixth straight win Boston wants to host '24 Games High school head injury lawsuit filed Varsity 541 College Sports SOU stuns top-ranked Carroll SOU men secure sixth straight win Kaminsky, Badgers kings of Atlantis Green light No. 12 Arizona takes Pac-12 South Pro Sports Seahawks’ defense rounding into top form Donaldson doesn’t blame A’s for trade Grizzlies snap Blazers’ streak Spurs win second straight without Popovich Chalmers leads Australian Open; McIlroy shares second Community Sports RESULTS/STANDINGS LOCAL EVENTS Business Latest Stories Blog: 'Twas the 12 Days of Deals... Asante expands cardiac center Jackson County sees workforce and job growth Regional hotels and motels outperformed statewide marks in October Incorrect labeling prompts Kroger ice cream recall Real Estate News Dear Monty: Violation of HOA rules creates conflict Farmers file suit over GMO crop ban Financial webinars offered for veterans and their families Home prices rise across Jackson County People In Business People in Business, Nov. 18 People in Business, Nov. 8 Transportation Allegiant Air will resume Medford-Phoenix service May 22 Medford airport passenger counts sky high in October Erickson reports third quarter profit Agriculture Farmers file suit over GMO crop ban Lawsuit seeks to overturn Jackson County's GMO ban or net $4.2 million for farms Latest count shows Measure 92 supporters narrowing deficit Opinion Latest Other Views: Klamath Basin agreement deserves approval Granlund cartoon: Holiday boxes Kent Bush: Ferguson case shows racism belief system still reinforced Maddocks: Republicans claim president overstepped his constitutional powers in pardoning turkeys Amy Gehrt: Justice is not color-blind Editorials Other Views: Klamath Basin agreement deserves approval Our View: Cheers (too thankful for a jeer this week) Our View: Day of abundance, season of sharing Another View: Logging still has a place in Oregon Our View: Lawsuit reopens the GMO debate Letters to the Editor Letters to the Editor, Nov. 28 Letters to the Editor, Nov. 27 Letters to the Editor, Nov. 26 Letters to the Editor, Nov. 24 Letters to the Editor, Nov. 23 Guest Opinions Guest Opinion: Are we the preferred path to global devastation? Guest Opinion: Fight for the rights of independent voters will continue Guest Opinion: 'Natural' not necessarily better for forest management Guest Opinion: County voters rebuffed judicial appointment process Fix health care reform, don't scrap it Lifestyle Latest stories Barry Lewis: When in America, do as the Romans do Frank Talk: It was all just a dream Facing Extinction Looking Up: Orion, a starry friend, returns Fishing through readers' stream of consciousness Food Community blog: In soup or salad, savor pumpkin with leeks Be a gravy-making star on Thanksgiving Food for Thought: Add new twists on Thanksgiving favorites Community blog: Feast on this blog's Thanksgiving recipes, tips Kitchen Call: Both sides of the kiddie table Home and Garden 9 ways to green your gift wrap Dear Monty: How to find a good real estate attorney Home Help: Quick tips for getting your home ready for the holidays Mortgage insurance: Your questions answered Home Help: Spruce up your home with quick DIY painting projects Health Health Watch: Fuel up on carbs before workouts Health insurance enrollment help available Community blog: Appreciating Clouds: Year-Round Gratitude Community blog: A Little Toilet Talk 'Tis the season to be jolly Hiking Biking Faith Religion news: Pope aims to expedite sex abuse rulings Religion news: Seattle-based mega-church dissolves Religion Briefs 'Walk the talk' Religion briefs Milestones and Achievements ACCESS receives $50,000 donation from Wells Fargo Wedding: Rogers-Horn Century Club Wedding: Tomlinson-Nowak Local farmers need more products in grocery stores Columnist for a Day Rogue Healthy Aging Tempo Latest stories Brunch at Loft Brasserie 2014 Providence Festival of Trees A grand illumination at the Commons Lighting up memories Jacksonville's Victorian Christmas Theater OCT's holiday show is a wonderful play New 'Alice' has some for kids ... and adults 'It's a Wonderful Life: A Live Radio Play' opens at Oregon Cabaret Theatre 'Red Noses' a romp through slapstick and pathos SOU presents 'The Drunken City' Music Shae Johnson releases 'Can You Feel the Music' Jeff Kloetzel releases 'Long Time Coming' A new guitar slinger in town Peter Chianca: Top 40 songs even a dad could love The Farr Side: Different artists, common songs Community Events 2014 Providence Festival of Trees A grand illumination at the Commons Lighting up memories Jacksonville's Victorian Christmas New exhibits highlight Third Fridays Dining Brunch at Loft Brasserie The Bohemian Club Thanksgiving comes early at Taprock Word of Mouth: Brunch at Brothers' Restaurant Blue Toba is a cultural experience Tempo Videos Classifieds Jobs Autos Real Estate FEATURED » Obituaries Blogs TV Listings Movie Listings Oregon Outdoors Oregon Healthy Living Magazines & Special Sections NEWS NOW Photo of hug between boy, officer at Portland protest goes viral ... Homemade bomb found inside stolen car after arrest of fleeing transient ... Police gain a clue in pumpkin smashing spree ... Photo of hug between boy, officer at Portland protest goes viral ... Homemade bomb found inside stolen car after arrest of fleeing transient ... Police gain a clue in pumpkin smashing spree ... ANOTHER VIEW Michael Gerson: For GOP, no victory lap MailTribune.com Writer Posted Oct. 24, 2014 @ 12:01 am Posted Oct. 24, 2014 @ 12:01 am » Social News On the theory that chickens should not only be counted before they hatch but killed, let us consider the downsides for Republicans of winning both houses of Congress. This hypothetical now seems the most likely outcome, according to the various poll aggregators we now treat as oracles. The Washington Post Election Lab, striding furthest out on the ice, puts the odds of a GOP Senate takeover at 93 percent. The reasons for this advantage are varied. The electoral map is favorable to GOP candidates, with battlegrounds located mainly in states Mitt Romney carried in 2012. Democrats can win only by running well ahead of President Obama's approval ratings, which range from the 30s to mid-40s. During the primary season, the GOP managed to weed out its most disturbing and gaffe-prone candidates. (In this cycle, it was a Democrat, Wendy Davis, who expressed her progressivism by attacking her paralyzed opponent with an ad featuring an empty wheelchair.) The midterm electorate naturally skews more Republican. And compounding matters for Democrats, the issue environment during this election season has been toxic: the Obamacare launch, the Veterans Affairs scandal, the rise of the Islamic State and the spread of Ebola fears. Good luck talking about the minimum wage. Democrats put on their game face and boast of their ground game — get-out-the-vote efforts that could limit GOP gains. Some strong Democratic candidates could beat the odds in red states — perhaps in the Georgia Senate race, where the Republican, David Perdue, struggles (like Romney before him) to explain his role in the "creative destruction" wrought by capitalism. But the electoral current runs strongly against Democrats, who are left jumping up the falls like salmon. With a gain of 13 seats in the House (an outside shot), Republicans would have their largest majority since Herbert Hoover was president. If Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin is re-elected and Gov. Sam Brownback of Kansas pulls out a victory, some conservatives will claim a vindication of hard-core, conservative governance. And the assumption of Senate control, with its spoils of committees and staff, is always a heady experience. But Nov. 4 should be a haunted balloon drop for Republicans. In the 2010 midterm election, the GOP won control of the House in a sweeping anti-Obama victory. Two years later, Obama took 11 out of 12 battleground states and became the first Democratic president since FDR to twice win 51 percent or more of the popular vote. Republicans are susceptible to the myth of the midterm mandate. Midterm elections generally express unhappiness, not aspiration. But some conservatives took the 2010 result as an ideological turning point. They concluded that Obama's 2008 victory was an anomaly — that the country, deep down, was really on the Republican side. It was a false dawn. As a weakened president celebrated a decisive re-election, a few things should have been clear: At the presidential level, the GOP brand is offensive to many rising demographic groups. Republicans are often perceived as indifferent to working-class struggles (because they sometimes are). The GOP appeal seems designed for a vanishing electorate. The last Republican midterm win actually complicated the long-term task of Republican reform. Many in the GOP took away a lesson in complacency. Some concluded that ideological purity is the path back to power, and that effective persuasion is only a matter of turning up the volume. It didn't work. It can't work. Republican midterm victories are the anomaly, distracting attention from trends that are gradually condemning the Republican Party to regional appeal and national irrelevance. Some parts of the Republican coalition — highly ideological members of Congress from safe districts, outside groups and think tanks that raise funds off appeals to purity — seem content, even happy, on the gentle slope of Republican decline. No Republican nominee for president can afford to be. Whatever he or she calls the effort — sorry, "compassionate conservatism" is trademarked — a successful Republican candidate will need to craft a more inclusive political appeal and formulate an active role for government in encouraging skills and aspiration in an economy where upward mobility is sticky and slowed. Will a Republican Party fresh from a midterm success — with a vivid feeling of ideological momentum — allow the Republican nominee this latitude? Or will it punish deviant creativity? A reform-oriented nominee will have some allies — a Republican congressional establishment burned by past tea party excesses and an impressive group of "reform conservative" thinkers to furnish the Republican renovation with policy. But the greatest obstacle to GOP success may well be a mistimed victory. Michael Gerson's email address is [email protected]. 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