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Oregon Road Conditions & Cams Advertisement Email Story to a Friend March 8, 2006 Warming trend could hurt ski trade New study from OSU says a small temperature increase would have a big impact on the Northwest’s snowpack By BILL KETTLER Mail Tribune Mount Ashland and other Pacific Northwest ski areas could see much less snow in coming decades, and large areas of low-elevation snowpack could disappear in the Oregon Cascades if climate change brings warmer temperatures to the region, a new study shows. Two Oregon State University researchers estimate that a temperature increase of 2 degrees Celsius (3.8 degrees Fahrenheit) over the next 40 years would bring more rain instead of snow to large areas of the Northwest, and more winters would be generally warmer. A relatively small temperature increase would have a large effect on snowpack because much of the Northwest’s snow falls at temperatures close to freezing, said Anne Nolin, a professor in OSU’s Department of Geosciences. She conducted the study with Chris Daly, another professor in the geosciences department. Many scientists who have studied climate change estimate that temperatures in the Northwest could easily rise as much as 2 degrees Celsius, Nolin said. Warmer winters could also have serious implications for fisheries, flood control programs, irrigated agriculture and hydroelectric power generation, but ski areas could see some of the most dramatic changes, Nolin said. As winters become warmer, precipitation that now falls as snow in December, January and February would fall as rain. Advertisement Nolin said the models used in the study suggest that Mount Ashland, for example, could have warm winters 40 percent of the time instead of the current 7 percent. Willamette Pass, which now has warm winters 3 percent of the time, could have warm winters 67 percent of the time. Mount Bachelor, which has no warm winters now, would have warm winters 33 percent of the time, the models suggest. The study, which has been accepted for publication in the Journal of Hydrometeorology, determined that an area of 3,600 square miles in Oregon, Washington, Idaho and parts of Montana now covered in winter by low elevation snow could shift to a climate dominated by winter rain. More than half of the "at-risk" snow lies in the Oregon Cascades. The terrain includes about 22 percent of the area that is presently covered by winter snow. Washington’s Olympic Mountains could lose as much as 61 percent of their snow cover, including most of the snow in Olympic National Park. Nolin said the snowpack has fluctuated widely in the past, but it seems to have been trending downward in the Northwest since the 1920s. Nolin, who moved to Oregon from Colorado three years ago, said she became interested in learning how small temperature changes might affect the Northwest snowpack because she saw so much evidence of rain falling on snow when she went skiing. She and Daly looked at climate data from the past 30 years to determine which areas would be affected by a 2-degree (Celsius) change in temperature. She said the study is not intended to make predictions, but to identify areas that would be "sensitive" to small temperature changes. "Every winter will not be warm," she said. "There will be some warm winters and some cold winters. "We’re trying to identify those areas of the Pacific Northwest that would be most vulnerable to changes in temperature." Reach reporter Bill Kettler at 776-4492, or e-mail Warming trend could hurt ski trade ">[email protected] . Mail Tribune Home | Local News | Sports | Business | Obituaries | Life | Opinion AP News | Archives | Site Map | Community | Classified Copyright © 1997-2006 Mail Tribune, Inc. All rights reserved. Privacy Policy | Terms & Conditions | Website Feedback www.bingo.com Home Security Systems Trunks, Footlocker Custom Build Computers Discount Hotel Reservations online casinos news Ashley Furniture HomeStore Send Flowers Southern Oregon Loans California Casinos GMAT Prep Windermere Van Vleet Sports Equipment Online Casino Reviews Online Bingo Entertainment Guide Online Casino Fundraisers Sudoku Online Casinos Canada Online Pharmacy Advertisement s