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WEATHER El Nino's effects remain uncertain for Southern Oregon But much of California expected to be drenched over the coming months Comment MailTribune.com Writer Posted Oct. 17, 2015 at 10:55 AM Updated Oct 17, 2015 at 10:57 AM Posted Oct. 17, 2015 at 10:55 AM Updated Oct 17, 2015 at 10:57 AM » Social News By The Associated Press and local sources WASHINGTON — While forecasters fully expect El Nino to leave a wet footprint on much of the United States this winter, they remain less certain about the prospects for Southern Oregon. The National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration issued its winter forecast last week, and “the driver of this winter’s outlook is El Nino,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. El Nino changes weather worldwide, mostly affecting the United States in winter. The weather pattern happens every few years when the Pacific Ocean warms up around the equator. This year’s is one of the strongest El Ninos on record. The outlook for Southern Oregon is a warmer-than-normal winter, but only 50-50 for more precipitation than average, Brett Lutz of the National Weather Service in Medford, told the Grants Pass Daily Courier. Lutz said two El Ninos as strong as the current one (1982-83 and 1997-98) produced wet winters here. “We’re going to have to continue worrying about (a lack of) snow,” Lutz said. But the weather pattern is expected to provide much needed moisture in the form of rain and snow in California. Paul Pastelok, a long-range forecaster for the private forecast firm Accuweather, said in a story published Saturday that the 2015-2016 season may yield triple the amount of snow than that which fell last year in California's central and northern mountains. This will allow locals to breathe a sigh of relief since April 1 measurements revealed snowpack across the Sierra Nevada was at its lowest level in 500 years. "The current deficit is too large for this winter to end the drought," according to Noll. "But this would certainly put a dent in it." The estimates are still just that, estimates, but Accuweather's map detailing the effects of the El Nino show the increased storms reaching only as far north as Northern California and not into Southern Oregon. Forecasters say Southern Oregon is a swing area, which may or may not see much in the way of precipitation from the El Nino. The uncertainty of El Nino's effects is evident in the National Weather Service's own information. One NWS map shows the Oregon-California border area as having "equal chances" of being wetter or drier. Another map shows the drought as "persisting or intensifying" in Washington, Oregon and Northern California. Elsewhere, NOAA expects a cooler and wetter winter across the South. The northern tier states, the Ohio Valley states and Alaska should be dry. While California’s drought is likely to lessen in January, even the wettest winter on record — 33 years ago — didn’t have enough rain to wash out the current four-year drought, said NOAA hydrologist Alan Haynes of the California Nevada River Forecast Center. Forecasters see a milder, warmer winter north of the Mason-Dixon line and for all of California and Nevada. Texas and the Deep South are forecast to be cold. Overall, the nation should have 2 percent fewer days when people have to fire up their furnaces, said Halpert. He said the Northeast, where it was chilly and snowy last year, should see 6 percent fewer heating days. Because of El Nino, NOAA is more confident than usual that its forecast is on target — 70 percent for a wet South, Halpert said. The federal winter forecast doesn’t address snow, just wet or dry and warm or cold. MailTribune.com Writer Posted Oct. 17, 2015 at 10:55 AM Updated Oct 17, 2015 at 10:57 AM » Comment or view comments Reader Reaction » STAY INFORMED Email NewsLetter Sign Up Today Sign up for our newsletter and have the top headlines from your community delivered right to your inbox. Southern Oregon Directory Featured Businesses Loading... 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