DTIC ADB009251: VHF-FM Portion of the Single Channel Ground and Airborne Radio Subsystem Concept Formulation Package. Appendix 4. Cost and Operational Effectiveness Analysis

Survival, Water, Medical Field Manuals

Military Manuals

Defense Technical Information Center

Document text

UNCLASSIFIED 


AD  NUMBER 

ADB009251 

LIMITATION  CHANGES 
TO: 

Approved  for  public  release;  distribution  is 
unlimited. 


FROM: 

Distribution  authorized  to  U.S.  Gov't,  agencies 
only;  Test  and  Evaluation;  OCT  1975.  Other 
requests  shall  be  referred  to  Office  of  the 
Program  Manager  SINCGARS,  Attn:  AMCPM-GARS, 

Fort  Monmouth , NJ  07703. 


AUTHORITY 

SINCGARS , D/A  ltr,  9 Feb  1977 


THIS  PAGE  IS  UNCLASSIFIED 


THIS  REP0rT  has  been  dpi 

™ ...  ,„L1C  " 

N0  RESTRICTIONS  are  IMt*n  N 
,TS  USE  AND  DISCLOSURE,  ^ 

DISTRIBUTION  STATEMENT  B 


APPROVED  for 
DisTPIBUTI0N 


PUBLIC  RELEASE; 

UNLIMITED, 


•UH5113 


VHF-FM  PORTION  OF  THE  SINGLE  I 
CHANNEL  GROUND  AND  AIRBORNE  v 
RADIO  SUBSYSTEM 

CONCEPT  FORMULATION  PACKAGE 
APPENDIX  JL 

COST  & OPERATIONAL  EFFECTIVENESS 
ANALYSIS 

OCTOBER  1975  .<.0 


D D C 

jJHSHEMj 

! FEB  24  1378 


Tmr.i.AssmKD  _ 

SECURITY  CLASSIFICATION  of  THIS  PAGE  fWTien  r>Bl«  Fnlxred) 


DOCUMENTATION  PAGE 


It  report number 


2.  GOVT  ACCESSION  NO 


^VHF-FM  Portion  of  the  Single 
Channel  Ground  and  Airborne  Radio  Sub- 
system Concept  Formulation  Package#  App- 
endix IV*^qOST  AND  OPERATIONAL  JFFECTIVE 


READ  INSTRUCTIONS 
BEFORE  COMPLETING  FORM 

T'S  CATALOG  NUMBER 


,NE.SS 


7>  AUTJAOi 


M2* 


BIS. 


S INCGARS  Special  Task  Force 
TRADOC  Systems  Analysis  Activity 
Decisions,  Designs,  Incorporated 


T.  PERFORMING  ORGANIZATION  NAME  AND  ADDRESS 

DAMO-SGTF 

Pentagon,  Rm  1A272 
Washington,  D.C.  20310 


I’l.  U 


PO  RT~  »1»»lt&PCOVEFl 

:al  kep  <w  t * / 

- Oct  75#  / 


Technici  ' 
Jan 


G ORS. 


^TfPP^i'fi"lJMBER 


B.  CONTRACT  OR  GRANT  WJMBERfe.) 


N00014-75-^0426^ 
N00014-73/G-I 


10.  PROGRAM  ELEMENT.  PROJECT,  TASK 

ARE/.  4 WORK  UNIT  NUMBERS 


tt.  CONTROLLING  OFFICE  NAME  AND  ADDRESS 

Department  of  the  Army 
\ ODCSOPS,  S INCGARS  STF 
Washington,  D.C.  20310 


PAGES 


31 


Ta.'mOnTtORING  AGENCY  NAME  ft  ADDRESS (il  ditlorent  from  Controlling  Ollio) 


IS.  SECURITY  CLASS.  ( ot  thlt  report) 

UNCLASSIFIED 


15*.  DECLASSIFICATION-DOWNGRADING 


SCHEDULE 


16.  DISTRIBUTION  STATEMENT  (ol -hie  Eeport) 

Distribution  is  limited  to  US  Governmen 
and  Evaluation;  Oct  75.  Other  requests  f 
referred  to:  OfrTce  of  the  Program  Manag 

AMCPM-GARS,  Fort  Monmouth,  New  Jersey  077 


t agencies  only;  T e s t 
or  this  document  must  be 
er  S INCGARS , ATTN: 

03  (Autovon  99-54141) 


17.  distribution 


STATEMENT  (ol  the  eb.trecl  entered  In  Biock  20.  K dttlerent  trom  Report; 


18.  SUPPLEMENTARY  NOTES 


D D C , 

EiEfra 


r\ 


FEB  24  197T 


UltaanrE 

D 


19. 


K 


KEY  WORDS  /Continue  on  revere,  .id.  71  oeceery  «</  >dent„y  » Week  numft.O  /CTNCCARS'I 

single  Channel  Ground  and  Airborne  Radio  Subsystem  (.SINCGARS) 

Cost  and  Operational  Effectiveness  Analysis 
Figure  of  Merit 
Relative  Performance 

Relative  Worth  . 


- m—ii  ■ . if  mui  Identify  by  block  number) 

ABSTRACT  fCOTltoue  <a  remM  ei*  » iteceeeerr  rarmi  r r 

A his  appendix  is  a compilation  of  two  separate  and  distinct  cost 
and  operational  effectiveness  analyses  (COEA)  which  were 
conducted  to  evaluate  the  four  alternatives  recommended  to  satisfy 
the  SINCGARS-V  requirements. 


FORM 
I JAM  73 


[ ACGESSIPn  fw  | 

KTIJ 

While  Seciloa  □ 

m 

Suit  Section 

WAKMUiiCED 

□ 

^ BY 

...... 

' DI'T3l3WOf/*VAIU9ILm  COOES 

| DIsL  AVAIL  and/or  SPECIAL 

f 

y | 

I; 

VHF-FM  PORTION  OF  THE  SINGLE 
CHANNEL  GROUND  AND  AIRBORNE 
RADIO  SUBSYSTEM 

| 

CONCEPT  FORMULATION  PACKAGE  1 


APPENDIX  K 

COST  & OPERATIONAL  EFFECTIVENESS  ANALYSIS 


OCTOBER  1975 


I 


HEADQUARTERS 
DEPARTMENT  OF  THE  ARMY 
WASHINGTON,  D.C.  20310 


D D C 

nr 


[iT’JZE'SSiM 

pi 

^ FEB  24  1976 

UlkEiynns! 

D 


DISCLAIMERS 


The  citation  of  trade  names  and  names  of  manufacturers 
in  this  report  is  not  to  be  construed  as  official 
Government  indorsement  or  approval  of  commercial 
products  or  services  referenced  herein. 


DISPOSITION 


Destroy  this  report  when  it  is  no  longer  needed.  Do 
not  return  it  to  the  originator. 


TABLE  OF  CONTENTS 


TITLE 

TABLE  OF  CONTENTS 
LIST  OF  TABLES 

INTRODUCTION 

Purpose 

Definitions 

References 

DISCUSSION 

Integration  of  TRADOC  and  DDI  Evaluations 
Cost  Considerations 
COMSEC  Options  and  Costs 
Electronic  Warfare  Threat  Implications 
Industrial  and  Technology  Base 

SUMMARY 

RECOMMENDED  APPROACH 

ANNEX  A - TRADOC  COMBAT  DEVELOPMENTS  STUDY  FINAL  REPORT 
ANNEX  B - CONTRACTOR  DEVELOPED  COEA 

ANNEX  C - MEMORANDUM  ON  FUTURE  SUPPORT  OF  AN/VRC-12  AND  AN/PRC-77 


PAGE  NUMBER 

iii 

iv 

IV-1 

IV-1 

IV-1 

IV-1 


IV-1 
IV -2 
IV -2 
IV-3 
IV-3 

IV-3 

IV-3 


A-IV-1 

B-IV-1 

C-IV-1 


LIST  OF  TABLES 


TABLE  NUMBER 

DESCRIPTION 

PAGE  NUMBER 

IV-1 

Figure  of  Merit  Summary  Developed  by  TRADOC  COEA 

IV-4 

IV-2 

Relative  Performance  Indices 

IV-5 

IV-3 

Composite  Relative  Performance  Indices 

IV-6 

IV-4 

Utility  Summary  Developed  by  DDI  COEA 

IV-6 

IV-5 

Relative  Utility  Summary 

IV-6 

IV-6 

Summary  Cost  Estimates 

IV-7 

IV-7 

Comptroller  of  the  Army  Recommended  Cost  Position 

IV-7 

IV-8 

Relative  Cost  Comparison 

IV-7 

IV-9 

Relative  Worth  Matrix 

IV-8 

IV-10 

Comptroller  of  the  Army  Approved  15-Year  COMSEC 
Equipment  Life  Cycle  Cost  Estimates,  100%  COMSEC 

IV-8 

IV-11 

Relative  Worth  for  100%  COMSEC 

IV-8 

iv 


- “ 


APPENDIX  IV 


COST  AND  OPERATIONAL  EFFECTIVENESS  ANALYSIS 


1.  INTRODUCTION. 

(1)  SINCGARS-V  as  a combat  support  system  precludes  direct  translation  of  the  classical  meas- 
ure of  the  force  effectiveness  as  it  is  commonly  applied  to  weapons  systems  which  directly  engage 
and  destroy  the  enemy.  The  attempt  to  ascribe  a quantifiable  measure  of  force  effectiveness  for  a 
SINCGARS-V  alternative  is  further  complicated  by  the  l^ck  of  accurate  data  by  which  any  given  com- 
munications, e.g.,  a radio  transmission,  can  be  assigned  a value  relative  to  its  impact  on  the 
conduct  of  the  battle.  Studies  presently  underway,  such  as  the  COMSEC  Priorities  Evaluation,  may 
provide  this  type  of  information  for  use  in  subsequent  analysis  to  support  an  ASARC  Il/DSARC  II 
decision. 

(2)  Two  distinct  and  separate  cost  and  operational  effectiveness  analyses  (COEA)  were  con- 
ducted to  evaluate  the  four  alternatives  recommended  to  satisfy  the  SINCGARS-V  requirements.  The 
COEA  performed  by  the  TRADOC  Systems  Analysis  Activity  (TRANSANA)  is  at  Annex  A.  The  collateral 
analysis  conducted  for  the  SINCGARS  Special  Task  Force  by  Decisions  and  Designs,  Inc.,  (DDI) 

(Contract  No.  00014-73-C-0149)  is  at  Annex  B. 

b.  Purpose.  The  purpose  of  this  Appendix  is  to: 

(1)  Integrate  the  results  of  the  evaluations  at  Annexes  A and  B; 

(2)  Incorporate  additional  cost  information  from  the  cost  analysis  brief  (CAB)  developed  as 
a result  of  the  Comptroller  of  the  Army  analysis  of  the  ECOM  Comptroller's  independent  parametric 
cost  estimate  (IPCE)  and  the  baseline  cost  estimate  (BCE)  prepared  by  the  Project  Manager, 

SINCGARS ; 

(3)  Provide  consideration  of  the  COMSEC  costs  and  options  which  are  available  as  a result  of 
the  radio  alternative  selected; 

(4)  Extend  additional  consideration  to  the  implication  of  the  postulated  EW  threat  for  the 
post-1985  time  frame; 

(5)  Assess  the  impact  of  changing  technology  upon  logistical  support  of  the  current  family  of 
SINCGARS-V  equipment. 

c.  Definitions.  Terms  and  acronyms  used  herein  are  contained  in  Annex  A of  Appendix  I,  TOD. 

d.  References.  References  are  contained  in  Annex  F of  Appendix  I,  TOD. 

2.  DISCUSSION. 

a.  Integration  of  the  TRADOC  and  DDI  evaluations. 

(1)  Both  evaluations  developed  a figure  of  merit,  or  military  value,  for  each  alternative 
based  upon  performance  characteristics  and  user  requirements.  Performance  characteristics  of 
each  alternative  were  evaluated  to  gain  a perspective  as  to  the  relative  performance  applicable 
to  each  alternative.  It  cannot  be  asserted  that  a difference  in  alternative  scores  is  a direct 
or  precise  reflection  of  their  relative  effectiveness.  The  relationship  between  these  scores, 
however,  does  provide  an  indication  as  to  the  alternative's  performance  and  thereby  its  contri- 
bution to  successful  combat  mission  performance. 

(2)  The  TRADOC  COEA  uses  mathematical  equations  to  quantify  performance  characteristics  of  each 
alternative,  wherever  possible.  Subjective  evaluations  are  made  for  those  characteristics  which 
could  not  be  mathematically  quantified.  While  these  measures  of  performance  were  aggregated  into 
common  areas,  there  is  visibility  within  the  TRADOC  model  to  permit  comparison  between  the 
alternatives  for  each  characteristic.  Table  IV-1  is  a composite  of  the  assessment  developed  by 
TRADOC  for  each  candidate  alternative.  The  Figures  of  Merit  normalized  to  Alternative  #1  (the 
base  case)  are  displayed  in  Table  IV— 2.  From  an  examination  of  Table  IV— 2,  it  can  be  inferred 

that  Alternatives  #3  and  H offer  significantly  improved  performance  over  the  base  case.  Table 

IV-1 


! 

; 

r 

* 


e 


B 


1 

a 


a-blehIv!2fforeiLti°^^L0ffthe  ?lter?ati"eS  ba86d  °"  wei8hti"8  the  relative  performance  indices 
fThpnJ  2l  f * h f ^ °f  F^1"8  by  the  Percent  of  equipment  of  each  configuration  deployed 
ince  is  realiled°h  T depl°yed  by  ““figuration  is  used  because  no  enhancement  to  perfom- 

!“*  dS  T ^ ? ] ^“iP^nt  in  storage.)  Table  IV-3  is  in  a form  where  a comparison  can 

be  made  for  the  relative  worth  of  the  TRADOC  and  DDI  evaluations. 

nf  <?  ThC  °DI  evaluati°n  employed  a methodology  different  from  the  TRADOC  evaluation.  Analysis 

oLential  Lnir^°?/eqUfremest8iWaS  ^ ^ deVelop  utillty  “^ves  and  functions  to  reflect  the 
nn^  ±bIi  °f  e3Ch  alternative  t0  the  combat  mission  accomplishment.  Visibility, 
within  the  DDI  model  is  possible  for  each  performance  characteristic.  Table  IV-4  (Utility  Summary) 

tZLi  a8fC8fed  miJitary  value  aa“b  alternative  derived  for  subordinate  Ljor 

dimensions  of  value.  Table  IV-5,  Relative  Utility  Summary,  portrays  the  utility  for  each  alter- 
native normalized  to  the  base  case.  y 

(4)  A comparison  of  Tables  IV-4  and  IV-5  with  Tables  IV-1,  IV-2  and  IV-3  shows  there  is 

over^h^hnr11"  bTeCn  T C?EA’8  1X1  th3t  Alternatlves  if  3 and  H offer  enhanced  performance 
over  the  base  case  in  each  evaluation.  v 

b.  Co st  Considerations. 

_ ““rln8  the  conduct  of  the  TRADOC  COEA,  the  only  cost  estimates  available  for  comparison 

orovlSnc  a6  ? , C°f  e8tlmate8  <LCCE>-  A“  IPCE  a"d  a BCE,  derived  from  the  LCCE  and 

£th  ^e  CO^I  e£fo«  °T  were  deveioped  by  the  Project  Manager  concurrent 

with  the  COEA  effort.  Table  IV-6  summarizes  the  results  of  the  LCCE,  BCE  and  IPCE.  These  cost 
estimates  do  not  include  COMSEC  or  ECCM  procurement  costs. 

a™  (2)  1Table  sh0WS  the  recommended  Army  cost  position,  derived  from  the  Comptroller  of  the 

Army  analysis  of  the  IPCE  and  BCE.  H OI  tne 

(3)  Table  IV-8  shows  the  relative  costs  of  the  alternatives  to  the  base  case  for  each  of  the 

cost  esimates  listed  in  Tables  IV-6  and  IV-7. 

(4)  Performance  values  and  cost  estimates  are  combined  to  establish  the  relative  worth  for 

teanat  Tb®sejvaluea  are  8hown  Table  IV-9  for  both  the  TRADOC  and  the  DDI  evaluation 

models  and  are  normalized  to  the  base  case,  Alternative  #1. 

c.  COMSEC  Options  and  Costs.  Both  COEA's  considered  the  capability  of  radio  alternatives  to 
accept  a COMSEC  module.  Neither  evaluation  considered  the  COMSEC  cost  impact  caused  6y  the  method 
of  interfacing  the  radio  and  COMSEC  module.  This  impact  is  driven  by  the  radio  capability  to  share 
circuitry  and  functions  with  the  COMSEC  device,  thereby  reducing  the  combined  cost  of  a secured 
radio.  ALTERNATIVE  H is  the  only  radio  which  is  capable  of  accommodating these features  through 

(seeUTablf  r^iof^  W°.dule'  This  “Polity  crffers  a significant  potential  cost  savings 

(see  Table  IV-10)  in  COMSEC  equipment  procurement  and  support.  The  current  Army  VINSON  program 
11  provide  Applique  COMSEC  modules  in  quantities  equivalent  to  approximately  25X  of  the  radio 

(AA0) * LCCE'S  for  a11  C0MSEC  °P«°ns  (including  VINSON)  procured 
to  100*  of  the  radio  AAO  are  listed  in  Table  IV-10.  As  indicated,  VINSON  is  two  to  three  times  as 
costiy  as  the  VANDAL  COMSEC  options.  The  following  is  the  estimated  cost  avoidance  which  is  avail- 
able (only  with  Alternative  H)  if  the  VANDAL  TOP  HAT  is  procured  in  lieu  of  the  VANDAL  Applique: 

ESTIMATED  SAVINGS 


TOP  HAT  vs  APPLIQUE 


VANDAL  Applique 
VANDAL  TOP  HAT 


$ 752.9 
$ 554.8 

$198.1  x 0.75  - $148. 5M 


1°8^  the  $148, 5M  equates  to  an  annual  cost  penalty  of  $1.98M  per  year  for  each 
additional  13!  of  COMSEC  modules  procured  against  the  radio  AAO. 

IV_11  8h0WS  relative  worth  comparison  of  the  alternatives  based  on  recommended 
costs  for  1003!  COMSEC  implementation.  (Costs  are  based  on  25*  VINSON  and  753!  VANDAL  COMSEC 
equipments.) 

(2)  In  addition  to  the  COMSEC  related  cost  benefits  which  Alternative  #4  provides,  there  are 
two  other  considerations.  The  NSA  is  currently  pursuing  the  VANDAL  development  as  a TOP  HAT  module. 


Si 


i , 


IV-2 


— - - . 


V*r,“  * roP  HAI  *”d“1=  f“  «*  logistical  auSo«  .U.  SmhL™''  APPll,U' 


d.  Electronic  Warfare  (EW)  Threat  Implications.  The  SIKCGARS-V  ROC  summxiiH  ...a  *.v  i 

requirement  for  ECCM  protection  by  directing  that  the  new  STNCCARq  v R0C  summarized  the  user's 
minimize  susceptability  to  hostile  EU  aruJici  ^ ^ SINCGARS-V  equipment  be  designed  to 

electronic  countermeasures  Se m thtlll  il’  1 ' • ^ctronic  warfare  support  measures  and 

further  evaluate dTJ  Sad^  I reference  3«-  User  requirements  were 

using  the  approved  Middle  East  I and  I^SS^oJLn  I^cenari™?  an<1  Perf0manCe  Envelopes 


wlaa'lca^rSfL".  *L1lSr^°L^i«Ve  Pr°1"t“‘  **  «.  «h,r- 

to  quantify  the  Impact  which  aophl.tlcatad  EW  wllJ  p!fy“«th«'“l“  bSSLl^TT  ““* 
has  not  been  developed.  (See  Parasranh  if  i„„a.  n /i  a7  aynamic  Dattlefield  of  the  future 

to  attempt  destruction  of  critical 8coLiunications  which*’!^]’!!  ^ a^  enemy  Can  be  expected 
techniques,  or  employ  jamming  to  isolate  friendlv’ element  a f 1 thro“gb  dlrection  finding 

activities.  This  requires  serious  consideration^  a 8 fro“  higher  echelon  command  and  control 
ECCM  hardware  techniques  built  into  eacJ  SttSs-V  ™dio.  ' the  ™ threat  throu«h 


antenna  p^SLo^  (SS)  l Asll LTal  ^ °T  deSi*ned  t0  a steerable  null 

Appendix  n!  m!  S'thesf  ECCM  Wdlte  t SNAP'8  iS  contalned  in  paragraph  3c  (2)  of 

against  a jamming  threat  of^r^tuan  ^8  P™Vlde  Varylng  de«ree8  «f  Protection 

J ng  tnreat,  they  offer  virtually  no  protection  against  enemy  direction  finding. 


potential  usefSness  o?  6 2 ??  * p8eud°rand°“  hopping  fashion.  Discussions  of  the 

protection.  The  application  of  eithfr  ECCM^echnique  will  Jesuit  ^n^he  r8  ^ add^lonal  ECCM 
for  both  Alternatives  #3  and  #4.  unnique  will  result  in  the  same  cost  differential 


economical^support  oftL't^ent  Telli y 5 TaTilTT  Capabllity  £°*  ^d-try  to  continue 

5SWS=  six^rssz'sis^- 

ss  =2=; If 


ptovi,“  i”ig“  f°r  °» 


.ubjL.' to  f°r  "■ °f  «—»>  ™«.i 

and  relatively  expensive  ECCM  capability  (i  e ^a  SNAPl^hi*^  e2ulpped  with  only  a limited 

«pt  «.  cn^^fccuou  :,uLmh^21r”c«;„«V"“r' 

'rssxrsfis^:  ivz^iv™ t,di” vl11  be““  *. 

of  obsolete  technology . continues  t0  shlftp  ^e  Army  must  assume  the  total  burden  of  the  support 


u.tfb«  £•££  r^lTllZ  ST, iX^LSSS^  f^T  ““  “ — “«'• 


^g^rlTSulr^ 

counter  the  EW  threnr  mid  ..I...  pability  of  the  recommended  alternative  to 

present  this  thf  Probability  of  communications  is  not  quantifiable  at 

capability  for  direct  Jn't^VhiJ  IZl 


IV-3 


TABLE  IV-1 


' 

k 


\ 

f 

r 

t 

f 


FIGURE  OF  MERIT  SUMMARY 
{Developed  by  TRADOC  COEA) 


ALTERNATIVES 


PAMvinm  att  ON 

RAKTS  FOR  RANKING 

#1 

#2 

#3 

#4 

LUNr  iLiUivni 
MANPACK 

Performance 

13.84 

14.36 

16.43 

17.50 

(297.  of  11Q*) 

Weighted  Performance 

502.60 

525.81 

675.96 

700.65 

MPE** 

12.97 

13.06 

15.39 

16.11 

Weighted  MPE 

471.87 

480.55 

630.69 

657.12 

VEHICULAR  with 

Performance 

13.93 

15.58 

16.89 

17.61 

40-watt  Power 
Amplifier 

Weighted  Performance 

592.51 

637.29 

693.70 

725.45 

(547.  of  1IQ) 

MPE 

11.87 

13.72 

15.15 

16.11 

Weighted  MPE 

525.32 

571.06 

614.66 

663.70 

AIRCRAFT 

Performance 

15.10 

16.52 

16.85 

17.83 

(177.  of  I1Q) 

Weighted  Performance 

643.25 

668.7  0 

673.13 

707.68 

MPE 

12.46 

14.57 

14.34 

15.87 

Weighted  Performance 

570.32 

626.82 

616.55 

655.36 

* I IQ  - Initial  Issue  Quantity 

**  MPE  - Mission  and  Performance  Envelopes 


i 

4'  i 

I 


■* 


TABLE  IV-2 


RELATIVE  PERFORMANCE  INDICES 
(TRADOC  Figures  of  Merit  Normalized  to  Alternative  #1) 


CONFIGURATION 

BASIS  OF  RANKING 

#1 

ALTERNATIVES 

n #3 

#4 

MANPACK 

Performance 

1 

1.04 

1.19 

1.26 

Weighted  Performance 

1 

1.05 

1.34 

1.39 

MPE 

1 

1.01 

1.19 

1.24 

Weighted  MPE 

1 

1.02 

1.34 

1.39 

VEHICULAR 

Performance 

1 

1.12 

1.21 

1.26 

Weighted  Performance 

1 

1.08 

1.17 

1.22 

MPE 

1 

1.16 

1.28 

1.36 

Weighted  MPE 

l 

1.09 

1.17 

1.26 

AIRCRAFT 

Performance 

1 

1.09 

1.12 

1.18 

Weighted  Performance 

1 

1.04 

1.05 

1.10 

MPE 

1 

1.17 

1.15 

1.27 

Weighted  MPE 

1 

1.10 

1.08 

1.15 

TABLE  IV- 3 


BASIS  FOR  RANKING 
Performance 
Weighted  Performance 


COMPOSITE  RELATIVE  PERFORMANCE  INDICES* 

ALTERNATIVE  #1  ALTERNATIVE  # 2 ALTERNATIVE  #3  ALTERNATIVE  #4 


Weighted  HPE 


* Based  on  percentage  of  equipment  deployed  for  all  configurations. 


TABLE  IV-4 


UTILITY  SUMMARY 
(Developed  by  DDI  COEA) 


MAJOR  DIMENSION  OF  VALUE 
Operational  Acceptability 
Technical  System  Utility 
Overall  Military  Value 


ALTERNATIVE  #1 


0.6863 


0.3399 


0.5131 


ALTERNATIVE  #2 


0.7267 


0.3858 


0.5563 


ALTERNATIVE  #3 


0.7430 


0.6503 

0.7067 


ALTERNATIVE  #4 
0.7Q57 
0.6450 


0.7204 


TABLE  IV- 5 

RELATIVE  UTILITY  SUMMARY 

(Data  of  Table  IV-4  Normalized  to  Alternative  #1) 


ALTERNATIVE  #1 


Operational  Acceptability 
Technical  System  Utility 
Overall  Military  Value 


ALTERNATIVE  #2 


ALTERNATIVE  #3 


ALTERNATIVE  #4 


IV-6 


I 


TABLE  IV-6 

SUMMARY  COST  ESTIMATES 
(FY  76  Constant  $,  Millions) 


RESFARCH  & 
DEVELOPMENT 

INVESTMENT 

OPERATING 
* SUPPORT 

TOTAL 

ALTERNATIVE 

#1 

LCCE/ 

BCE 

IPCE 

LCCE/ 

BCE 

IPCE 

LCCE/ 

BCE 

IPCE 

LCCE  / 
BCE 

IPCE 

0 

0 

226.6 

245.  9 

158.0 

447.0 

384.6 

692. 

in 

4.1 

4.2 

490.0 

613.6 

147.2 

530.0 

641.3 

1147. 

#3 

12.3 

17.9 

480.9 

567.9 

170.2 

280.2 

663.4 

866. 

#4 

42.0 

33.2 

435.7 

497.3 

121.0 

240.9 

598.7 

777. 

f 


i 


1 

I 


r 


/ 


TABLE  IV-7 

COMPTROLLER  OF  THE  ARMY  RECOMMENDED  COST  POSITION 
(FT  76  Constant  $,  Millions) 


ALTERNATIVE 

RESEARCH  & 
DEVELOPMENT 

INVESTMENT 

OPERATING 
& SUPPORT 

TOTAL 

111 

0 

226.6 

318.0 

544.6 

in 

5.0 

490.0 

335.0 

830.0 

in 

17.0 

480.9 

155.0 

652.9 

#4 

42.0 

435.7 

133.0 

610.7 

TABLE  IV-8 

RELATIVE  COST  COMPARISON 

(Data  of  Table  IV-7  Normalized  to  Alternative  #1) 


ALTERNATIVE 

LCCE/ BCE 

IPCE 

COA 

#1 

1 

1 

1 

in 

1.67 

1.66 

1.52 

in 

1.72 

1.25 

1.20 

H 

1.53 

1.11 

1.12 

1 


1 


IV-7 


TABLE  IV-9 


RELATIVE  WORTH  MATRIX 
(Data  Normalized  to  Alternative  #1) 


ALTERNATIVE 

it  1 

n 

#3 

H 

*Weighted  MPE's  were  used 


TRADOC  COEA* 

BCE 

IPCE 

COA 

1.0 

1.0 

1.0 

0.64 

0.64 

0.70 

0.70 

0.96 

1.0 

0.84 

1.15 

1.14 

to  derive  relative  worth. 

DDI  COEA 

BCE 

IPCE 

COA 

1.0 

1.0 

1.0 

0o  65 

0„  65 

0.71 

0.80 

1.10 

1.15 

0.92 

1.26 

1.25 

TABLE  IV-lQ 


1C  . ^uririnuLLEK  Ur  THE  ARMY  APPRnVFn 

5 -YEAR  COMSEC  EQUIPMENT  LIFE  CYCLE  COST  ESTIMATE 
(FY  76  Constant  $ Millions) 


100%  COMSEC 


ALTERNATIVE 

#1 

#2 

#3 

#4 


RESEARCH  & 
DEVELOPMENT 

INVESTMENT 

OPERATING 
& SUPPORT 

TOTAL 

1 

835 

66 

902 

1 

835 

66 

902 

1 

798 

66 

865 

1 

591 

57 

649 

' d e vi ce s ''comp le t e MtSSJ"  “i*0  VINS0HS-  ^ C0MSEC 

Alternative  #4  uses  VANDAL  TOP  HAT,  ^ 3nd  ^ USe  VANDAL  Appliques; 


ALTERNATIVE 
#1 
it  2 
it  3 
#4 


TABLE  IV-11 

RELATIVE  WORTH  FOR  100%  COMSEC 
(Using  COA  Recommended  Costs) 


TRADOC  COEA 
1 

0.89 

1.14 


1.47 


DPI  COEA 
1 

0.9 

1.31 

1.61 


IV- 8 


ANNEX  A (TRAD PC  COMBAT  DEVELOPMENTS  STUDY  FINAL  REPORT)  TO  APPENDIX  IV  (COST  AND  OPERATIONAL 
EFFECTIVENESS  ANALYSIS) 


This  Annex  contains  a summary  of  the  TRADOC  COEA  of  the  SINCGARS-V  study  on  pages  IV-A-6  through 
IV-A-12.  The  TRADOC  COEA  was  distributed  separately  as  indicated  in  the  cover  letter  below;  it 
has  been  omitted  here  because  of  its  size. 


«> 

? 

I 


I 


ATCD-SC-E 


DEPARTMENT  OF  THE  ARMY 

HEADQUARTERS  UNITED  STATES  ARMY  TRAINING  AND  DOCTRINE  COMMAND 
TORT  MONROE,  VIRGINIA  iJGM 


12  September  1^75 


SUBJECT:  Combat  Developments  Study  Final  Report:  Cost  and  Operational 

Effectiveness  Anslysis  (COEA)  for  the  VHF/FM  Portion  of  the 
Single  Channel  Ground  and  Airborne  Radio  Subsystem  (SINCGARS-V) 


HQBA  (DAMO-SGTF) 
WASH  DC  20310 


1.  Reference,  Letter,  DAMO-SGTF,  HQDA,  Combat  Developments  Study 

Directive:  Cost  and  Operational  Effectiveness  Analysis  (COEA)  for 

the  VHF/FM  Portion  of  the  Single  Channel  Ground  and  Airborne  Radio 
Subsystem  (SINCGARS-V),  25  February  1975. 

2.  The  SINCGARS-V  COEA  Final  Report  (lnclosure  1)  is  submitted  in 
response  to  the  referenced  study  directive. 

3.  This  headquarters  has  reviewed  the  Final  Report  and  concurs  in 
the  conclusions  and  recommendations. 

4.  It  should  be  noted  that  the  cost  and  performance  findings  unquestion- 
ably rank  alternatives  3 and  4 over  alternatives  1 and  2.  However,  the 
difference  between  the  performance  of  alternatives  3 and  4 are  signifi- 
cantly influenced  by  the  qualitative  measures  used  where  quantitative 
measures  of  performance  were  not  available.  An  analysis  of  the  quantitative 
differences  between  alternatives  3 and  4 indicated  that  the  margin  between 
the  two  was  very  narrow.  A further  subjective  analysis  of  alternatives  3 
and  4)  based  on  the  finl  draft  Trade  Off  Determination,  Trade  Off  Analysis, 
and  Best  Technical  Approach,  did  support  the  conclusion  that  alternative  4 
is  the  preferred  alternative  for  further  development. 

5.  Follow-on  actions  will  address  the  development  of  measures  of  effective- 
ness and  the  elimination  of  qualitative  measures  from  any  aggregation  of 
the  performance  figures  of  merit. 


flj, 

/’*• 

\ 


A-IV-1 


1 


J 


12  September  1975 

ATCD-SC-E  ^ 

SUBJECT:  Combat  Developments  Study  Final  Report:  Cost  and  Operational 

Effectiveness  Analysis  (COEA)  for  the  VHF/FM  Portion  of  the 
Single  Channel  Ground  and  Airborne  Radio  Subsystem  (SINCGARS-V) 

6.  The  study  plan  indicated  that  a 16/8  division  force  structure  would 

be  considered  in  the  COEA.  The  AAO  associated  with  the  current  force  struc- 
ture as  provided  by  ECOM  in  their  LCCO  computations,  was  used  to 
develop  a comparative  base.  The  125%  AAO  investigated  in  the  sensitivity 
analysis  closely  approximates  the  16/8  division  force  and  provides  an 
estimate  of  costs  to  support  the  larger  force. 

7.  This  action  is  identified  with  TRADOC  ACN  23362. 


1 Incl 


W.  H.  VINSON,  JR.  '* 
Major  General,  GS 
Deputy  Chief  of  Staff 
for  Combat  Developments 


CF:  w incl 

HQDA  (DAMO-SGTF)  - 15 
HQDA  (DAMO-RQC)  - 1 
HQDA  (DAMO-TC)  - 1 
HQDA  (DAMO-ZD)  - 1 
HQDA  (DANO-FI)  - 1 
HQDA  (DALO)  - 1 
HQDA  (DAMA-CS)  - 1 
HQDA  (DACA)  - 1 
HQDA  (DAPE)  - 1 
HQDA  (DUSA(OR))  - 1 
Cdr 

AMC,  ATTN:  AMCCP-E/AMCRD-SI  - 5 

USA  CINCPAC  Spt  Gp  (MOCG-OP)  - 1 

ECOM,  ATTN:  AMSEL-CE/AMSEL-RD/AMSEL-NL  - 12 

USA  CA  Cen  & Ft  Leavenworth,  ATTN:  ATCACO-C  - 2 

USA  Log  Cen,  ATTN:  ATLC-M  - 2 

USA  TRASANA,  ATTN:  ATAA-TCD  - 5 

Comdt 

USASIGS,  ATTN:  ATSN-CTD  - 10 

PM,  S INC GARS  - 10 

Cdr 

USA0C6S,  ATTN:  ATSL-CTD 

USA  Admin  Cen  & Ft  Benjamin  Harrison,  ATTN:  ATSG 

USA  Nuc  Agcy,  ATTN:  ATCN 

USA  Intel  Cen  6 Sch,  ATTN:  ATSI-CTD 

USAARMC  & Ft  Knox,  ATTN:  ATSB-CD 

USAMMCS,  ATTN:  ATSK-CT 

USAAVNC  S Ft  Rucker,  ATTN:  ATZQ-D-MS 

USA  Health  Svc  Comd 


A-IV-2 


n 


ATCD-SC-E 

SUBJECT: 


12  September  1975 

Combat  Developments  Study  Final  Report:  Cost  and  operational 

Effectiveness  Analysis  (COEA)  for  the  VHF/FM  Portion  the 
Single  Channel  Ground  and  Airborne  Radio  Subsystem  (SINCGARS-V) 


CF:  (Cont) 

MASSTER,  ATTN:  ATMAS 

FORSCOM,  ATTN:  AFCE/TRADOC-LO  - 2 

Comdt 

USAIS , ATTN:  ATSH-CTD-MS 

USAES,  ATTN:  ATSE-CTD 

USAADS,  ATTN:  ATSA-CTD 

USA IMA,  ATTN:  ATSU-CTD 

USATSCH,  ATTN:  ATSP-CTD 

USAMPS,  ATTN:  ATSJ-CTD 

USAQMS 

USAFAS,  ATTN:  ATSF-CTD 

DIRNSA  ATTN:  S45 

CINCUSAREUR,  ATTN:  AEAGE/ATFE-LO-AE  (XRADOC  1,0)  - 2 


3 


A-IV-3 


ACN  22362 


AD 


TRASANA 


COST  AND  OPERATIONAL  EFFECTIVENESS  ANALYSIS  1-75 


SINGLE  CHANNEL  GROUND  AND  AIRBORNE 
RADIO  SUBSYSTEM  (VHF/FM) 

VOLUME  I 


SEPTEMBER  1975 


DISTRIBUTION  STATEMENT 
Transmittal  of  this  document  outside 
the  Department  of  Defense  must  have 
prior  approval  of  the  US  Army  Signal 
School. 


DEPARTMENT  OF  THE  ARMY 
US  ARMY  TRADOC  SYSTEMS  ANALYSIS  ACTIVITY 
WHITE  SANDS  MISSILE  RANCiE 
NEW  MEXICO  88002 


Incl 


A-IV-4 


TRASANA 


COST  AND  OPERATIONAL  EFFECTIVENESS  ANALYSIS  1-75 


SINGLE  CHANNEL  GROUND  AND  AIRBORNE 
RADIO  SUBSYSTEM  (VHF/FM) 

VOLUME  II 


t 

SEPTEMBER  1975 


DISTRIBUTION  STATEMENT 

Transmittal  of  thii  document  outside 
th*  Department  of  Oefanse  mutt  have 
prior  approval  of  the  US  Army  Signal 
School. 


DEPARTMENT  OF  THE  ARMY 
US  ARMY  TRADOC  SYSTEMS  ANALYSIS  ACTIVITY 
WHITE  SANDS  MISSILE  RANGE 
NEW  MEXICO  88002 


A-IV-5 


U JUH  III,.  J I III  IIJII-BPB 
-r-mrT"r 


SW  — • v " 

— • --  • - , , 


s'. 1 -"lit-1' 


SUMMARY 


PURPOSE 


This  cost  and  operational  effectiveness  analysis  (COEA)  documents  the 
results  of  a study  that  was  made  to  determine  which  of  four  alternatives 
was  the  most  cost  and  operational  effective  VHF/FM  combat  net  radio  sub- 
system. The  alternatives  are  defined  In  the  SINCGARS-V*  Tradeoff  Analy- 
sis and  Tradeoff  Determination. 

BACKGROUND 


The  capability  of  the  Army  to  provide  Integrated  and  secure  or  securable 
VHF/FM  combat  net  radio  communications  Is  deficient  In  the  areas  of  size, 
weight,  rellabllity/avai lability /maintainability  (RAH),  comnunl cations 
security  (COMSEC),  electronic  counter-countermeasures  (ECCM  ),  electro- 
magnetic capability  (EMC),  and  nuclear  and  nonnuclear  hardening.  To  cor- 
rect these  deficiencies,  the  SINCGARS-V  Required  Operational  Capability 
(ROC)  was  approved  by  the  Department  of  the  Army  prior  to  the  Implementa- 
tion of  AR  71-9.  It  provides  a basis  for  the  completion  of  advanced 
development  programs. 

The  SIIICGARS-V  Special  Task  Force  requested  the  assistance  of  US  Army 
Training  and  Doctrine  Command  (TRADOC)  In  December  1974;  a study  direc- 
tive was  Issued  by  Department  of  the  Army  on  25  February  1975.  The  sub- 
sequent study  plan  was  approved  6 May  1975. 

The  SINCGARS-V  program  Is  a follow-on  to  the  development  program  of  the 
Tactical  Radio  Communications  Svstem.  The  proposed  alternatives  range 
from  the  conceptual  phase  to  the  subsystem  advanced  development  category 
of  the  validation  phase. 

This  study  provides  an  Initial  COEA  which  takes  the  place  of  the  prelimi- 
nary appraisal  for  support  of  a letter  of  agreement.  Preliminary 
appraisals  are  a requirement  of  TRADOC  Regulation  11-8. 

ASSUMPTIONS 


Relative  to  this  study  the  following  were  assumed; 

a.  The  results  of  the  Integrated  Tactical  Connunlcatlons  System 
(INTACS)  studv  will  not  Invalidate  recommendations  of  this  COEA. 


4 Single  channel  ground  and  airborne  radio  subsystem,  VHF/FM 


lx 


A-IV-6 


- 


- ,.  - ii  n.,.~i.;.>'afi>^!.i.i-i«Jj 


b.  The  radio  wire  Integration  (RWI)  approach  selected  by  INTACS 
will  not  invalidate  the  final  candidate  that  results  from  this  COEA. 

c.  The  basis  of  issue  (BOI)  for  the  recommended  candidate  will  be 
the  same  as  the  BOI  for  the  current  family  of  VHF/FM  combat  net  radios. 

ALTERNATIVES 

The  alternatives  for  the  VHF/FM  combat  net  radio  subsystems  are  as  follows: 

a.  Retain  the  current  VHF/FM  combat  net  radios  and  incorporate 
planned  and  essential  product  improvements.  (This  alternative  is  the  base- 
line against  which  other  alternatives  will  be  compared.) 

b.  Product  improve  the  current  VHF/FM  combat  net  radios. 

c.  Replace  the  current  VHF/FM  family  with  the  AN/VRC-78  radio  set. 

d.  Replace  the  current  VHF/FM  family  with  a new  combat  net  radio. 
METHODOLOGY 


Basically,  the  methodology,  as  outlined  in  the  study  plan,  was  structured 
as  follows: 

Effectiveness  Investigation.  An  operational  effectiveness  model  is  not 
available  for  use  In  this  COEA.  In  lieu  of  a classical  effectiveness 
methodology,  the  analytical  approach  centered  on  performance  of 
al ternatlves. 

Measure  of  Performance  Development.  Critical  performance  areas  were 
defined  and  performance  parameters  were  derived  to  describe  these  areas. 

A hierarchy  of  measure  of  performance  (MOP)  descriptors  was  developed  in 
the  broad  areas  of  operability,  dependability,  and  physical  characteristics. 

Derivation  of  Functional  Relationships.  Mathematical  models  which  func- 
tionally relate  the  MOPs  were  derived  to  produce  a quantified  assessment 
of  performance.  When  a mathematical  model  could  not  be  developed  or  sup- 
ported, a qualitative  assessment  was  made  and  a quantified  value  of  this 
assessment  was  derived. 

Methodology  Testing.  The  analytical  methodology  was  tested  on  data  Input 
of  the  United  States  AN/VRC-43  and  the  British  VK/VRC-353.  Results  were 
In  consonance  with  user  expectations  and  indicated  that  the  analytical 
methodology  was  technically  sound. 

Performance  Analysis.  A sensitivity  analysis  was  conducted  to  (1)  demon- 
strate that  equations  (mathematical  models)  respond  to  changes  in  the 


1 


folate  critical  Input  parameters,  and  (3)  demonstrate 
that  aggregation  techniques  do  not  destroy  the  objective  analysis. 

sh1fD  fLCCQlC«Sai0f*?WnerS^P  Eva1uat1on-  The  life  cycle  cost  of  owner- 
shlp  (LCCO)  evaluation  reflected  the  relative  cost  of  ownershlo  for  each 
alternative.  It  was  centered  on  the  evaluation  of  the  iSS  cSst  data 
°f  analyt1cal  schemata  which  allowed  for  analyses  (!j?- 
the  COMSEC  Jonf1g^at1o™!ntenanCe  Md  procuren,ent  costs)  a"d  changes  In 

ouantlfToH1*^1'0"  Assessment.  This  assessment  Identified,  analyzed,  and 
SIncmIJ  3 S5  res^rce  implication  In  deployment  of  a partlcu Ur 
rSS^l  ?^erna5  ve*  Data  and  analytical  techniques  Inherent  In  the 
(FSS)  were  Ijilized  (FCIS)  ^ F°rCe  Stratl‘ficat1on  System 

arMa3l3enin?’  Relatlye  rankin9s  of  the  alternatives  were  based  on  the 
achieved  performance  figures  of  merit  (FOM)  In  the  following  categories: 

. Performance 
. Weighted  performance 

requirements j°n  perfonnance  enve1°Pe  W (performance  compared  to 
. Weighted  MPE 

Cost  Performance  Analysis.  Relative  worth  measures  were  develooed  for 

aAUe?SativebMPFd  °i  we19h^-nonweighted  performance  per  given  dol- 
lar.  Alternative  MPE  values  and  force  Implication  assessments  were  then 
ntegrated  Into  the  measures  to  select  the  dominant  alternative. 

ANALYSIS 

sensUI vfty!  addreSSed  three  9enera1  areas:  Performance,  cost,  and  rank 

Performance  analysis  was  accomplished  for  the  manpack,  vehicular  and 
airborne  configurations.  It  considered  performance  alone,  wrfJmance 
compared  with  the  user-provided  MPEs,  weighted  performance  (Inclusion  of 

ded,Ut'lfS)’  sfld  "eishted  M|,E'  A1  terFSt  1 - dip" SiSnt  0?  a 

Fo!  f^Mch  d°"""t  sd,stOT  b«ed  °»  th.  delated 

Cost  analysis  was  based  on  LCCO  and  force  Implications.  The  study  con- 
ducted In  accordance  with  AR  37-18,  MIL-STD  881,  and  ECOMP  11-4,  Vofume  7, 


xl 


I 

? 


> 


used  a model  developed  by  Communications/ Automatic  Data  Processing  Labor- 
atory. The  cost  analysis  revealed  that  alternative  1 - retain  the  cur- 
rent VHF/FM  combat  net  radios  and  incorporate  planned  and  essential  pro- 
duct Improvement  - Is  the  least  expensive  alternative*  alternative  4 was  the 
next  least  expensive. 

The  rank  sensitivity  analysis  was  based  on  performance,  utile  allocation, 
aggregation,  and  cost. 

Performance  sensitivity  revealed  the  following: 


a.  The  HOPS  were  sensitive  to  all  input  parameters  except  receiver 
sensitivity  and  noise  figure  for  the  case  that  was  examined. 

b.  Critical  parameters  which  have  the  most  impact  on  the  MOP  were 
identified  and  are  listed  In  order  of  relative  Impact. 


c.  The  additive,  equal  weight  FOM  is  sensitive  to  the  input 
parameters. 

Utile  allocation  sensitivity  revealed  that  by  varying  the  utile  alloca 
tion  by  one  performance  factor  at  a time  within  a calculated  spread, 
no  change  in  the  rank  ordering  of  alternatives  was  possible  in  any 
configuration. 


Aqqregatlon  sensitivity  revealed  that  the  percentages  of  agreement  of  the 
various  forms  with  the  additive  forms  vary  inversely  with  the  range  ot 
the  input  parameters  which  describe  the  alternatives. 


For  LCCO  sensitivity,  rank  ordering  to  125  percent  and  75  Percent  varia- 
tions in  Army  acquisition  objective  (AAO)  was  determined  and  Alternative 
1 remained  the  least  expensive  for  each  variation. 

RELATIVE  WORTH 


The  Individual  performance  of  each  alternative  In  the  different  configu- 
rations -manpack,  vehicular,  and  airborne  -were  sunned  to  obtain  an 
overall  FOM.  The  weighted  performance  scores  were  considered  the  best 


Ucifhtod  ftrfommt  Totili 

01  tom  t tv* 

jn 

, 

| Can*)' Hon 

f»rf 

42.17710 

i 

40.45199 

50.16310 

48.59485 

52.94106 

Wt  Hrt 

1738.359 

1131.1 

2042.779 

1988.02 

2133.775 

m Pcrf 

37.30948 

31.35309 

44.07031 

43.43102 

4Q.0C9S6 

*t  *t  rcrf 

1W*7.$13 

1078.421 

1061.894 

1813.G3G 

1976.178 

Mnk  Order 

S 

4 

2 

3 

1 

| *25  khz 

••SO  klw 

xli 


i 


A-IV-9 


.....  J 

— »■  n',  ■ 


1 

i 


indicators  of  alternative  performance.  A performance  threshold  was 
developed  using  the  scenario  developed  MPE  and  utility  weights.  This 
threshold  establishes  the  minimum  acceptable  performance  level.  As 


RELATIVE  WORTH  COMPARISON 

Alternative 

ToUl  Wt 
Performance 

Lao  (*0 

Relative 

Performance 

Relative 

Coat 

Relatl  ve 
Worth 

1 

1738.359 

387.0 

- 

- 

- 

2 

1831.8 

885.8 

1.0 

1.0 

1.0 

3 (25  kHi) 

2042.779 

888.4 

1.1152 

.9746 

1.1443 

3 (SO  kHz) 

1988.02 

888.4 

1 .0853 

.9746 

1.1136 

4 

2133.775 

586.7 

1.1849 

.8555 

1.3817 

stated  In  the  I/A-approved  ROC  and  validated  in  the  scenario  analysis, 
Alternative  1 does  not  meet  the  minimum  acceptable  performance  level  and 
was  not  considered  in  the  calculations  of  relative  worth.  The  relative 
worth  of  each  of  the  remaining  alternatives  was  calculated  by  the 
equation: 


RU 


Performance  of  Alternative 
Performance  of  Basecase 
LCCO  of  Alternative 
LCCO  of  Basecase 


Alternative  4 provided  the  best  relative  worth  and  is  the  most  cost  and 
operationally  effective  alternative. 


SUBJECTIVE  FACTORS 


Those  areas  In  which  subjective  factors  have  a potential  impact  on  the  con- 
clusions of  this  analysis  were  assessed.  The  results  were  as  follows: 

The  Impact  of  the  scenario  which  describes  the  forces,  terrain,  type  con- 
flict, and  threat  fall  Into  two  areas:  MPE  and  the  evaluation  of 
environment-sensitive  MOP.  Analysis  reveals  that  the  MPE  which  would  be 
developed  should  encompass  the  probable  (lower  limit)  and  possible  (upper 
limit)  operational  requirements.  Furthermore,  the  MOPs  are  sensitive  to 
scenario  changes,  but  the  relative  rankings  of  the  alternatives  are  not 
affected  by  these  changes. 

The  cost  and  performance  data  that  were  provided  indicated  no  change  from 
current  procedures  In  maintenance  and  other  logistical  support  measures. 


xlii 


A-IV-IO 


■in  . iiMiiii.m  nm 


J.IIU  1.  .1 


, ■- . ,A- — ^ jas 


Operationally,  the  principal  impact  of  improved  failure  rates  and  repair 
times  of  the  alternatives  is  a significantly  improved  operational  avail- 
ability for  the  individual  user.  This  means  that  a tactical  leader  or 
firepower  element  retains  a radio  communications  capability  which  might 
otherwise  be  lost  due  to  maintenance  failure.  In  turn,  better  maneuver 
capability  and  increased  firepower  control  is  provided  the  conriander. 
Therefore,  the  impact  of  Improved  operational  availability  is  highly 
significant  on  the  battlefield  even  though  the  actual  Impact  cannot  be 
measured  in  terms  of  firepower  and  maneuver. 

The  MOPs  which  addressed  individual  and  collective  training  were  not  used 
in  the  rankings  of  the  four  alternatives.  A review  of  the  tradeoff  analy 
sis  and  tradeoff  determination  indicated  no  expected  change  in  require- 
ments for  any  of  the  alternatives.  COMSEC  and  ECCM  were  the  only  areas 
where  performance  can  be  improved  by  increased  training. 

In  terms  of  flexibility,  Alternative  4 - deployment  of  a new  combat  net 
radio  - is  enhanced  by  its  adaptability  to  a design  which  would  incorpo- 
rate the  Improved  anclllaries.  No  constraints  would  be  Imposed  by  add-on 
interface  adapters  and  no  compromises  would  be  required  in  the  ancillary 
design  in  order  to  Integrate  with  a fixed  radio  design. 


FINDINGS 


The  relative  rankings  achieved  by  the  alternatives  through  considerations 
of  performance,  LCCO,  user  requirements,  and  relative  worth  are  summarized 
as  follows: 


Relative  Rankings 

A1  ternative 

Performance 

LCCO 

User 

Requi rements 

Relati' 

Worth 

1 

4 

1 

4 

_ 

2 

3 

4 

3 

3 

3 

2 

3 

2 

2 

4 

1 

2 

1 

1 

CONCLUSIONS 


On  the  basis  of  the  analysis,  the  following  conclusions  were  derived: 
Performance 

a.  Alternative  4-a  new  combat  radio  using  advanced  technology  - 
will  perform  better  than  the  other  three  alternatives. 

b.  Alternative  4 will  better  satisfy  stated  user  requirements. 


A-XV-ll 


Cost  Analysis 


a.  Alternative  1 - the  current  VHF/FM  net  radio  subsystem  - Is 
least  costly. 

!*■ 

b.  The  assessment  of  force  Implications  with  respect  to  the  deploy 
ment  of  a particular  alternative  could  not  be  translated  to  force  unit 
costs  since  the  required  level  of  detail  was  not  available  for  this  Ini- 
tial COEA. 

Relative  Worth  Analvsls 

a.  The  best  performance  per  dollar  values  was  provided  by  Alter- 
native 4. 

b.  Alternative  4 Is  the  preferred  alternative  based  on  Its  capabll 
ity  to  meet  user  requirements. 

c.  Follow-on  actions  can  be  used  to  reduce  uncertainty  of  perform- 
ance factors. 

RECOMMENDATIONS 


Reconmendatlons  are  as  follows: 

a.  Alternative  4 be  accepted  as  the  preferred  alternative  for  fur- 
ther development. 

b.  Follow-on  actions  Identified  in  Appendix  V be  accomplished  for 
Inclusion  In  the  COEA  update  For  ASARC  II. 


xv 


A-IV-12 


ANNEX  B (CONTRACTOR  DEVELOPED  COEA)  TO  APPENDIX  IV  (COST  AND  OPERATIONAL  EFFECTIVENESS 
ANALYSIS) 

This  Annex  contains  a summary  of  the  DDI  COEA  of  the  SINCGARS-V  study.  This  COEA  study  has  been 
published  as  two  separate  documents;  they  have  been  omitted  here  because  of  their  size. 


A Technical  Report 

SINGLE  CHANNEL  GROUND  AND  AIRBORNE 
RADIO  SYSTEM  (SINCGARS)  EVALUATION  MODEL 


Dr.  J.O.  Chinnis,  Dr.  C.W.  Kelly  II! 
Mr.  R.D.  Mincklcr,  Dr.  M.F.  O’Connor 


Sponsored  by 

The  Director,  SINCGARS  Special  Task  Force 
Office  of  the  Deputy  Chief  of  Staff  for  Operations  and  Plans 
Department  of  the  Army 
and 

The  Defense  Advanced  Research  Projects  Agency 
Contracts  N00014-75-C-0426  and  N00014-73-C-0149 


September  15, 1975 


□ECI5inn5  ann  nEEIEfE.  IflCI. 


Suite  100,  7900  Westpark  Drive 
McLean,  Virginia  22101 
(7031  821-2828 


The  views  end  conclusions  contained  In  this  document  arc  those  of'the  authors  and  should  not  be  ** 

repressing  the  offical  policies,  either  expressed  or  implied,  of  the  Department  of  the  Army,  The  Defense  Advanced 
Research  Projects  Agency,  or  the  U.S.  Government. 


B-IV-1 


SUMMARY 


Introduction . This  report  describes  the  development, 
validation,  and  utilization  of  a multi-attribute  utility 
model  for  use  by  the  SINCGARS  Special  Task  Force  (STF) 
in  evaluating  the  military  utility  of  a series  of  alter- 
native radio  systems.  The  model  was  programmed  to  be  inter- 
active and  was  made  available  to  the  SINCGARS  staff  to  allow 
further  analyses. 

Background  and  Approach.  The  SINCGARS  Special  Task 
Force  was  established  by  the  Army  Chief  of  Staff  for  the 
purpose  of  defining  and  recommending  an  optimum  solution  for 
meeting  the  Army's  requirement  to  ensure  that  a prescribed 
level  of  suitable  Very  High  Frequency  (VHF) -Frequency 
Modulated  (FM)  Combat  Net  Radios  (CNRs)  will  be  available  in 
the  Army  inventory  in  the  post-1980  time  frame.  To  this 
end,  the  SINCGARS  STF  defined  the  following  four  alternative 
courses  of  action  for  comparison/evaluation  with  respect  to 
satisfying  the  Army's  requirements  for  CNRs: 

• Alternative  1.  Retain  the  current  VHF-FM  CNRs 
(which  consist  of  three  families  of  radios)  with 
minor  product  improvements. 

• Alternative  2.  Develop  and  ultimately  procure  a 
product-improved  version  of  the  current  VHF-FM 
combat  net  radios  that  will  operate  with  a 25  KHz 
channel  spacing. 

• Alternative  3.  Continue  development  and  ultimately 
procure  Radio  Set,  An/URC-78. 

• Alternative  4 . Develop  and  ultimately  procure  a 
new  family  of  VHF-FM  combat  net  radios. 

The  objective  of  the  research  described  in  this  report 
was  to  develop  and  test  a multi-attribute  utility  model  to 
be  used  to  assist  the  SINCGARS  STF  of  the  U.S.  Army  in 
evaluating _ the  military  utility  of  alternative  Combat  Net 
Radio  configurations.  Of  particular  importance  during  the 
development  of  the  model  was  the  need  to  provide  an  analytic 
tool  which  would  accept  "last  minute"  changes  in  data  and 
would  also  enable  a user  to  conduct  "what  if"  analyses  on  an 
interactive  basis.  A multi-attribute  utility  model  was 
developed  which  would  systematically  quantify  the  utility  of 
alternative  radio  systems.  The  model  utilizes  as  inputs 
the  technical  performance  characteristics  of  a radio  system. 


i 


B-IV-2 


The  results  indicate  that  Alternatives  3 and  4 are 
superior  to  Alternatives  1 and  2,  mainly  due  to  differences 
in  technical  system  utility.  Further  examination  of  the 
results  indicated  that  this  superiority  with  respect  to 
technical  system  utility  is  due  to  a significant  improvement 
with  respect  to  both  dependability  and  technical  performance. 
Technical  system  utility  is  a multiplicative  combination  of 
these  two  factors. 

Alternatives  1 and  2 are  both  far  superior  to  the 
Korean  War  System  (KWS) . Alternative  2,  however,  is  only 
slightly  superior  to  Alternative  1 with  respect  to  both 
technical  system  utility  and  operational  acceptability. 

The  foregoing  results  were  based  upon  the  information 
which  was  available  with  regard  to  the  various  alternative 
radio  systems.  The  flexible  structure  of  the  SINCGARS 
Evaluation  Model,  however,  has  enabled  the  SINCGARS  STF  to 
continue  to  use  the  model: 

• With  new  or  modified  input  data. 

• To  conduct  "what  if"  analyses  on  an  iterative, 
interactive  basis  in  response  to  queries  that  have 
been  received. 

In  so  doing,  the  SINCGARS  STF  has  attained  an  increasingly 
better  understanding  of  all  of  the  factors  involved  in  the 
evaluation  of  the  alternative  systems  and  a greater  degree 
of  confidence  in  the  recommendations  which  have  been  made 
based  upon  the  use  of  the  model. 

Methodological  Implications.  The  following  two  addi- 
tional observations  are  also  important  from  the  standpoint 
of  decision  analytic  theory: 

• The  evaluation  of  alternative  systems  is  very 
closely  related  to  system  design,  so  the  evalua- 
tion model  must  be  very  flexibly  structured  with 
respect  to  possible  changes  in  inputs  in  order  to 
permit  meaningful  "what  if"  analyses.  For  exam- 
ple, the  range  of  a technical  performance  charac- 
teristic over  which  a utility  function  is  assessed 
should  not  be  the  entire  physical  performance 
range  of  a general  system,  for  this  will  cause  the 
model  to  be  quite  insensitive.  If  specific  alter- 
natives which  will  not  change  are  to  be  evaluated 
for  purpose  of  choosing  among  them,  the  range  of 

a performance  characteristic  should  be  the  range 
for  the  alternatives  under  consideration.  However, 
when  the  designs  of  developmental  or  conceptual 
systems  are  being  evaluated,  then  the  range  of  a 
technical  performance  characteristic  over  which  a 
utility  function  is  assessed  should  reflect  the 
minimum  feasible  to  the  maximum  feasible  performance 
range  of  those  systems. 

ii 


B-IV-3 


1 


p; 

i 

l 


i 

* 

f 


The  results  indicate  that  Alternatives  3 and  4 are 
superior  to  Alternatives  1 and  2,  mainly  due  to  differences 
in  technical  system  utility.  Further  examination  of  the 
results  indicated  that  this  superiority  with  respect  to 
technical  system  utility  is  due  to  a significant  improvement 
With  respect  to  both  dependability  and  technical  performance. 
Technical  system  utility  is  a multiplicative  combination  of 
these  two  factors. 


Alternatives  1 and  2 are  both  far  superior  to  the 
Korean  War  System  (KWS) . Alternative  2,  however,  is  only 
slightly  superior  to  Alternative  1 with  respect  to  both 
technical  system  utility  and  operational  acceptability. 

The  foregoing  results  were  based  upon  the  information 
which  was  available  with  regard  to  the  various  alternative 
radio  systems.  The  flexible  structure  of  the  SINCGARS 
Evaluation  Model,  however,  has  enabled  the  SINCGARS  STF  to 
continue  to  use  the  model: 


With  new  or  modified  input  data. 

To  conduct  "what  if"  analyses  on  an  iterative, 
interactive  basis  in  response  to  queries  that  have 
been  received. 


In  so  doing,  the  SINCGARS  STF  has  attained  an  increasing 
better  understanding  of  all  of  the  factors  involved  in  the 
evaluation  of  the  alternative  systems  and  a greater  degree 
of  confidence  in  the  recommendations  which  have  been  made 
based  upon  the  use  of  the  model. 


Methodological  Implications.  The  following  two  addi- 
tional. observations  are  also  important  from  the  standpoint 
of  decision  analytic  theory: 


The  evaluation  of  alternative  systems  is  very 
closely  related  to  system  design,  so  the  evalua- 
tion  model  must  be  very  flexibly  structured  with 
respect  to  possible  changes  in  inputs  in  order  to 
permit  meaningful  "what  if"  analyses.  For  exam- 
ple,  the  range  of  a technical  performance  charac- 
fcvrifj1C  °Ver  which  a utility  function  is  assessed 
should  not  be  the  entire  physical  performance 
range  of  a general  system,  for  this  will  cause  the 
model  to  be  quite  insensitive.  If  specific  alter- 
natives which  will  not  change  are  to  be  evaluated 
tor  purpose  of  choosing  among  them,  the  range  of 
a performance  characteristic  should  be  the  range 

alternatives  under  consideration.  However, 
when  the  designs  of  developmental  or  conceptual 
systems  are  being  evaluated,  then  the  range  of  a 
Per formance  characteristic  over  which  a 
U,  Tity  function  is  assessed  should  reflect  the 
minimum  feasible  to  the  maximum  feasible  performance 
range  of  those  systems. 


iii 


B-IV-4 


•i 


! 


< 


I 


: 


\ 


1 


T 


' 


* ■ 


— — 


riose  attention  must  also  be  given  to  the  defini- 
tion of  scenarios  as  conditioning  variables  m the 
equation  Sf  alternative  systems.  The  scenarios 
should  be  so  defined  that  not  only  will  they  be 
representative  of  the  situations  in  which  the 
alternatives  will  operate  and  thus  ^he 

assessment  of  the  expected  utilities  of  all  of  t 
alternative  systems,  but  also  they  must  serve  t 
discriminate  clearly  among  the  alte™atl^dSJ*  ' 
These  goals  are  not  usually  compatible,  and  an 
in-depth  analysis  of  which  goal  to  pursue  must  be 
accomplished  in  order  to  decide  upon  the  defini- 
tion of  scenarios. 


UNCLASSIFIED 

ANNEX  C (FUTURE  SUPPORT  OF  AN/PRC-77  AND  AN/VRC-12  FAMILIES  OF  RADIOS)  TO  APPENDIX  IV  (COST  AND 
OPERATIONAL  EFFECTIVENESS  ANALYSIS) 


' 


DEPARTMENT  OF  THE  ARMY 

HEADQUARTERS  UNITED  STATES  ARMY  ELECTRONICS  COMMAND 
FORT  MONMOUTH,  NEW  JERSEY  07703 


A t ' S C L - R D - 0 


22  SEP  1975 


t 


I 

T 


/*■ 


j 


MEMORANDUM  FOR: 
SUBJECT:  Future 


COL  THOMAS  C.  NELSON 

Director,  S1NCGARS  Special  Task  Force 

DAMO  SGTF 

Support  of  AN/VRC-12  and  AN/PRC-77 


1.  References: 

a.  Your  telephone  request  to  me  11  Sep  75  requesting  our 
opinions  as  to  when  subject  radio  might  become  non-supportable 

b.  Telephone  conversations  between  yourself  and  personnel 
of  the  US  Army  Electronic  Devices  and  Technology  Lab  (ECOM) 
above  subject. 


c.  Our  telephone  conversations  during  week  of  15  Sep  75. 

2 Status  of  both  the  AN/VRC-12  and  AN/PRC-77  systems  with 
respect  to  future  availability  of  parts  is  as  follows,  based 
on  our  knowledge  of  technology  and  judgement  as  pertains  to 
economic  factors. 

(1)  AN/PRC-77:  This  system  has  been  redesigned,  modularly, 

to  replace  germanium  devices  (which  are  in  increasing  short 
supply)  with  silicon  devices.  In  fact,  some  modules  usl"9 
integrated  circuits  have  been  employed.  The  future  availability 
of  silicon  devices  has  been  confirmed  by  suppliers  for  a 
period  of  10-15  years  depending  on  economic  factors  such  as 
reprocurement  of  the  system  and  procurement  of  maintenance 
spares . 

(2)  AN/VRC-12:  Motorola  plans  to  discontinue  production 

of  germanium  transistors.  Their  cut-off  date  for  acceptance 
of  orders  is  Jan  76  They  grow  their  own  material  and  thus 
must  know  of  any  large  transistor  buys  by  Oct  75  in  order  to 
make  a sufficient  quantity  of  germanium  crystals  to  fill 
transistor  orders  anticipated  to  be  received  by  Jan  76.  Their 
production  line  will  continue  running  to  approximately  mid-76 
to  complete  production  on  orders  received  bafore  the  cut'otT 
date.  In  view  of  this,  two  alternatives  are  being  considered: 


Strengthen  Americo'i  Peace  Power 
— Buy  U.  S.  Sovings  Bondi 


UNCLASSIFIED 


i 


; 


' i 


c-iv-i 


UNCLASSIFIED 


AMSEL-RD-0  22  Sep  75 

SUBJECT:  Future  Support  of  AN/VRC-12  and  AN/PRC-77 

(a)  FY-77  and  FY-78  reprocurements  are  possible  provided 
the  Government  contracts  for  a "buy-out"  from  Motorola  on 
those  devices. they  produce,  sufficient  to  supply  approximately 
10,000  radio  sets  and  sufficient  maintenance  spares  for  the 
life  of  the  equipment. 

(b)  A funded  FY-76  Product  Improvement  Program  Is 
planned  which  Includes  the  substitution  of  critical  semi- 
conductors. It  is  anticipated  that  production  of  the  Improved 
set  could  begin  In  FY-79/80, 

3.  Based  on  our  analyses  It  appears  both  the  AN/VRC-12  and 
AN/PRC-77  systems  will  be  supportable  for  10-15  years,  that 
Is  until  the  1985-1990  time  frame. 


E.  L.  BOWMAN 
Colonel , SlgC 
Deputy  Director,  RDE/L 


2 


l 


J 


UNCLASSIFIED 

C-IV-2