Prediction Markets

Live Odds & Forecasts from Polymarket

Politics (33)

Polymarket Real-Money Prediction Markets 15 markets

Brazil Presidential Election

Politics $187.8M
Yes 79% No 21% Yes 22%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potentia...

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Politics $48.6M
Yes 47% No 53% Yes 28%

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel foll...

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

Politics $17.0M
Yes 96% No 4% Yes 92%

This market will resolve to β€œNo” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to β€œYes.” ...

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Politics $713.5M
Yes 49% No 51% Yes 46%

This market will resolve to β€œYes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to β€œNo”. The resolution ...

Next French Presidential Election

Politics $153.4M
Yes 48% No 52% Yes 20%

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follow...

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Politics $2.7M
Yes 50% No 50% Yes 39%

The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in t...

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Politics $1295.1M
Yes 16% No 84% Yes 15%

This market will resolve to β€œYes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to β€œNo”. The resolution ...

Elon Musk # tweets October 13 - October 20, 2026?

Culture $1.5M
Yes 38% No 62% Yes 34%

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 13 12:00 PM ET to October 20, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main fee...

Elon Musk # tweets October 17 - October 19, 2026?

Culture $393K
Yes 60% No 40% Yes 38%

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 17 12:00 PM ET to October 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main fee...

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Politics $25.0M
Yes 62% No 38% Yes 28%

This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States Senate and the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States mi...

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Politics $717.2M
Yes 20% No 80% Yes 13%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolv...

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

Politics $41.2M
Yes 58% No 42% Yes 38%

On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to β€œYes” if the United States governmen...

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Global Conflicts $27.5M
Yes 4% No 96%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this mar...

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Politics $74.6M
Yes 16% No 84%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market w...

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

Politics $636K
Yes 78% No 22%

This market will resolve to β€œNo” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to β€œYes.” A qualifying milit...

Manifold Community Prediction Markets 10 markets

Will Trump finish his second term?

2.0M mana
Yes 86% No 14%

Who will win the 2026 United States Senate election in Iowa?

64K mana

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

14.5M mana
Yes 46% No 54%

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

59K mana
Yes 68% No 32%

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

634K mana
Yes 21% No 79%

Donut Battery is essentially Lithium free?

774K mana
Yes 20% No 80%

CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Feb 2027?

830K mana
Yes 85% No 15%

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

10.5M mana
Yes 96% No 4%

How old will Bryan Johnson be when he dies of natural causes?

176K mana

πŸ‘πŸ‘Ž Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]

1.2M mana
Yes 45% No 55%
PredictIt US Political Markets 8 markets

Who will be the next Cabinet member to leave office?

Politics
R. F. Kennedy Jr. 37% Pete Hegseth 36% Howard Lutnick 8%

Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Politics
Jon Ossoff 19% A. Ocasio-Cortez 15% Gavin Newsom 15%

Who will win the 2026 election for governor of California?

Politics
Xavier Becerra 97% Steve Hilton 4% Kamala Harris 1%

Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Politics
JD Vance 42% Marco Rubio 17% Ron DeSantis 5%

Who will win the 2028 US presidential election?

Politics
JD Vance 18% A. Ocasio-Cortez 13% Jon Ossoff 13%

How many House and Senate seats will Dems control after the 2026 midterms?

Politics
51-53 and 233-247 32% 48-50 and 218-232 21% β‰₯54 and β‰₯248 17%

How many House seats will Republicans win in the 2026 midterm election?

Politics
192 or fewer 33% 193 to 197 18% 198 to 202 17%

How many Senate seats will the GOP control after the 2026 midterms?

Politics
47 or fewer 38% 48 19% 49 14%

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