Prediction Markets
Live Odds & Forecasts from Polymarket
Politics (33)
Brazil Presidential Election
Politics
$187.8M
Yes
79%
No
21%
Yes
22%
Brazil Presidential Election
Politics $187.8MA presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potentia...
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Politics
$48.6M
Yes
47%
No
53%
Yes
28%
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Politics $48.6MLegislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel foll...
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Politics
$17.0M
Yes
96%
No
4%
Yes
92%
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Politics $17.0MThis market will resolve to βNoβ if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to βYes.β ...
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Politics
$713.5M
Yes
49%
No
51%
Yes
46%
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Politics $713.5MThis market will resolve to βYesβ if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to βNoβ. The resolution ...
Next French Presidential Election
Politics
$153.4M
Yes
48%
No
52%
Yes
20%
Next French Presidential Election
Politics $153.4MThe next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follow...
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Politics
$2.7M
Yes
50%
No
50%
Yes
39%
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Politics $2.7MThe second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in t...
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Politics
$1295.1M
Yes
16%
No
84%
Yes
15%
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Politics $1295.1MThis market will resolve to βYesβ if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to βNoβ. The resolution ...
Elon Musk # tweets October 13 - October 20, 2026?
Culture
$1.5M
Yes
38%
No
62%
Yes
34%
Elon Musk # tweets October 13 - October 20, 2026?
Culture $1.5MThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 13 12:00 PM ET to October 20, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main fee...
Elon Musk # tweets October 17 - October 19, 2026?
Culture
$393K
Yes
60%
No
40%
Yes
38%
Elon Musk # tweets October 17 - October 19, 2026?
Culture $393KThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 17 12:00 PM ET to October 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main fee...
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Politics
$25.0M
Yes
62%
No
38%
Yes
28%
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Politics $25.0MThis market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States Senate and the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States mi...
Presidential Election Winner 2028
Politics
$717.2M
Yes
20%
No
80%
Yes
13%
Presidential Election Winner 2028
Politics $717.2MThe 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolv...
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
Politics
$41.2M
Yes
58%
No
42%
Yes
38%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
Politics $41.2MOn July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to βYesβ if the United States governmen...
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Global Conflicts
$27.5M
Yes
4%
No
96%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Global Conflicts $27.5MThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iranβs current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this mar...
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Politics
$74.6M
Yes
16%
No
84%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Politics $74.6MThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market w...
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
Politics
$636K
Yes
78%
No
22%
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
Politics $636KThis market will resolve to βNoβ if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to βYes.β A qualifying milit...
Will Trump finish his second term?
2.0M mana
Yes
86%
No
14%
Will Trump finish his second term?
2.0M mana
Who will win the 2026 United States Senate election in Iowa?
64K mana
Who will win the 2026 United States Senate election in Iowa?
64K mana
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
14.5M mana
Yes
46%
No
54%
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
14.5M mana
Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?
59K mana
Yes
68%
No
32%
Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?
59K mana
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
634K mana
Yes
21%
No
79%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
634K mana
Donut Battery is essentially Lithium free?
774K mana
Yes
20%
No
80%
Donut Battery is essentially Lithium free?
774K mana
CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Feb 2027?
830K mana
Yes
85%
No
15%
CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Feb 2027?
830K mana
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?
10.5M mana
Yes
96%
No
4%
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?
10.5M mana
How old will Bryan Johnson be when he dies of natural causes?
176K mana
How old will Bryan Johnson be when he dies of natural causes?
176K mana
ππ Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]
1.2M mana
Yes
45%
No
55%
ππ Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]
1.2M mana
Who will be the next Cabinet member to leave office?
Politics
R. F. Kennedy Jr.
37%
Pete Hegseth
36%
Howard Lutnick
8%
Who will be the next Cabinet member to leave office?
Politics
Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Politics
Jon Ossoff
19%
A. Ocasio-Cortez
15%
Gavin Newsom
15%
Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Politics
Who will win the 2026 election for governor of California?
Politics
Xavier Becerra
97%
Steve Hilton
4%
Kamala Harris
1%
Who will win the 2026 election for governor of California?
Politics
Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Politics
JD Vance
42%
Marco Rubio
17%
Ron DeSantis
5%
Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Politics
Who will win the 2028 US presidential election?
Politics
JD Vance
18%
A. Ocasio-Cortez
13%
Jon Ossoff
13%
Who will win the 2028 US presidential election?
Politics
How many House and Senate seats will Dems control after the 2026 midterms?
Politics
51-53 and 233-247
32%
48-50 and 218-232
21%
β₯54 and β₯248
17%
How many House and Senate seats will Dems control after the 2026 midterms?
Politics
How many House seats will Republicans win in the 2026 midterm election?
Politics
192 or fewer
33%
193 to 197
18%
198 to 202
17%
How many House seats will Republicans win in the 2026 midterm election?
Politics
How many Senate seats will the GOP control after the 2026 midterms?
Politics
47 or fewer
38%
48
19%
49
14%
How many Senate seats will the GOP control after the 2026 midterms?
PoliticsMarkets by State
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